May 4, 2025

Economix Blog: Comparing the Job Losses in Financial Crises

CATHERINE RAMPELL

CATHERINE RAMPELL

Dollars to doughnuts.

For a while I was regularly updating a chart each month showing how far employment plummeted in the latest recession and how little ground has been recovered since the recovery began in June 2009. Compared with other recent recessions and recoveries, the last few years have looked especially disastrous:

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

But that may be the wrong comparison to make.

As the Harvard economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have written, financial crises are always especially disastrous. Over the course of a dozen financial crises in developed and developing countries going back to the Great Depression, the unemployment rate rose an average of 7 percentage points over 4.8 years, they found.

And actually, when shown alongside the track records of other financial crises, the American job losses caused by the recent financial crisis don’t look quite as horrifying:

Courtesy of Josh Lehner.Courtesy of Josh Lehner.

The chart above was put together by Josh Lehner, an economist for the state of Oregon. The red line shows the change in employment since December 2007, when the most recent recession officially began.

As you can see, drastic as American job losses have been in recent years, they were far worse and lasted much longer in the aftermath of the financial crises that struck, for example, Finland and Sweden in 1991 and Spain in 1977, not to mention the United States during the Great Depression.

Looking at unemployment rates (which refer to the share of people who want to work but can’t find jobs, as opposed to just the total number of jobs) also shows that things in the United States could have been much worse:

Courtesy of Josh Lehner. Courtesy of Josh Lehner.

In the United States, the unemployment rate rose from an average of 4.5 percent in the year before the crisis to a peak of 10 percent. In other words, the jobless rate more than doubled. After previous financial crises, however, some countries saw their unemployment rates triple, quadruple, even quintuple.

It’s not clear why the United States came out of this financial crisis relatively less scathed than history might predict.

Mr. Lehner attributes this to “the coordinated global response to the immediate crises in late 2008 and early 2009,” referring to both monetary and fiscal stimulus. He notes that the United States and the global economy had been tracking the path of the Great Depression in 2008-9, until we saw a number of major government interventions kick in.

Article source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/25/comparing-the-job-losses-in-financial-crises/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economix Blog: Behind the Decline in Incomes

The Census Bureau just released its sweeping annual report on income, poverty and health insurance coverage.

As my colleague Sabrina Tavernise writes, median household income declined last year to $50,054, a level last seen in 1996 when adjusted for inflation. Here are a few quick graphical bullet points from other findings in the report:

1. Median incomes fell from 2010 to 2011 for all races, although the change was not statistically significant for Asians and Hispanics.


2. Inequality rose, and is at its highest level on record since 1967.

Source: Census Bureau

The Gini Index is a standard measure of inequality, in which higher values represent more unequal distributions of money income. The “equivalence-adjusted income estimate” (blue line above) takes into consideration the number of people living in each household, and how these people share resources and take advantage of economies of scale.

3. Men have gained more jobs in the recovery (dubbed the “he-covery”) but they also lost a lot more jobs in the recession (“man-cession”).

Source: Census Bureau

4. There’s more evidence that the work force is “hollowing out,” as there was significant job growth in the first, second and fifth income quintiles, but not in the third and fourth ones.

Source: Census Bureau

5. The share of people without health insurance fell. The biggest drop was among those 19 to 25 years old, who can now join their parents’ health insurance plans. (The number of insured children also showed a decline from 2010 to 2011, but it was not statistically significant.)

Source: Census Bureau

Article source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/12/behind-the-decline-in-incomes/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Today’s Economist: Casey B. Mulligan: Changes in Inequality the 21st Century

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Casey B. Mulligan is an economics professor at the University of Chicago.

A couple of important measures of labor-market inequality have played out since 2008 much the way they did previously.

Today’s Economist

Perspectives from expert contributors.

One measure of changing inequality in the labor market, commonly used by economists, is the annualized 90-10 change: the annualized growth rate of wages at the 90th percentile of the distribution of wages for men working full time minus the growth rate of wages at the 10th percentile of the same distribution.

Because the 90th percentile wage is the wage below which 90 percent of working men earn, the annualized 90-10 change can be interpreted as the degree to which the wages of high-earning men grow more, or fall less, than the wages of low-earning men. The measure can in principle be negative, in which case the wages of less-skilled people would be partly catching up with the wages of skilled people.

I measured these changes using the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey Merged Outgoing Rotation Group sample. (Analysis of wage patterns is often performed with the Census Bureau surveys, although most of them lack information on employee fringe benefits over and above wages and salaries.) The left part of the chart below shows the annualized 90-10 change over three time periods.

The first time period is 2000-8, the years of George W. Bush presidency, and the years before the 2009 depths of the “Great Recession.” Wages grew faster for high-skill people during these years: about 0.5 percentage points a year extra (roughly a cumulative four extra percentage points for the entire period).

Wages also grew faster for high-skill people between 2008 and 2010 (the last year for which I have data). The average growth differential between them and low-skill people was a whopping 2.6 percentage points a year.

One interpretation of these results is that the rewards for accumulating skill have been increasing over time, especially in the last two years. The more common and less euphemistic interpretation is that the rich have been getting richer, especially recently.

Perhaps the Great Recession of 2008-9 and slow recovery is to blame for all of this. For this reason, I looked separately at the recession period 2000-2. That recession (0.6 extra percentage points a year) looks a lot like the longer 2000-8 period (0.5 extra percentage points a year).

Another indicator of inequality is wage equality between the genders. The right part of chart shows changes in gender wage equality. The gender measures are positive if and when wages grow faster for women than for men and negative if and when male wages grow faster. The former is usually viewed as progress, because for centuries women have been earning less than men.

During the George W. Bush presidency (and a number of the presidencies before him), wages grew more for women than for men, about seven-tenths of one percentage a year more on an annual basis. During the first two years of the Obama presidency (or, if you want, during the Great Recession), the gender wage gap closed even more rapidly (1.3 percentage points a year), though less rapidly than it did in during the previous recession (1.6 percentage points a year).

President Obama is sometimes likened to Lyndon B. Johnson or Jimmy Carter, but theirs were not years when high-skill people were gaining ground at a faster pace than low-skill people and not years when women’s wages were catching up to men’s. When it comes to measures of labor-market inequality, the last few years so far look at lot like the years before 2008.

Perhaps that shows how Presidents Bush and Obama are not so different in their economic policies, or that presidents have little impact on important economic trends.

Article source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/12/changes-in-inequality-the-21st-century/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economix Blog: Blasts From the Fed’s Past

6:43 p.m. | Updated with link to Times article.

The Federal Reserve on Thursday released transcripts from meetings of its top policy committee in 2006. The release is part of the Fed’s standard procedure, in which full transcripts are made available five years after the fact.

The transcripts show that some of the nation’s pre-eminent economic policy makers did not take seriously the possibility that problems in the housing market would send the nation tumbling into a deep recession, Binyamin Appelbaum reports in The Times. Reading through the proceedings, he found some of the committee members’ comments particularly noteworthy, and sent out some highlights via posts on his Twitter feed:

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=970cb17067b127c949f01ce1909574fe

What the Latest Jobless Figures Mean for Obama

The economy has added 1.5 million jobs over the last year, and the pace seems to be picking up. The unemployment rate last month, 8.5 percent, was at its lowest level since February 2009, Mr. Obama’s first full month in office.

Of course, the economy has been here before, only to fall back again. In both early 2010 and early 2011, job growth picked up briefly, before the continuing global financial crisis — including Europe’s problems — again reasserted itself.

The White House made the mistake of reacting too quickly and positively to some of that earlier news. It went so far as to refer to the summer of 2010 as “recovery summer.”

As they had in recent weeks, Mr. Obama and his aides noted the good news on Friday, though they said there was a long way to go, and urged Congress to extend the payroll tax cut and pass other parts of the president’s agenda.

“The economy is moving in the right direction,” Mr. Obama said. “We’re creating jobs on a consistent basis.”

But he added: “There are a lot of people that are still hurting out there. After losing more than 8 million jobs in the recession, obviously, you know, we have a lot more work to do.”

And the economy clearly remains a problem for Mr. Obama. Shortly after the release of the jobs report, Mitt Romney, the winner of this week’s Republican caucus in Iowa, said at a campaign stop in South Carolina, “This president doesn’t understand how the economy works.”

In a statement, Mr. Romney called the unemployment numbers “good news” but said it is “no cause for celebration.” He added: “President Obama’s policies have slowed the recovery and created misery for 24 million Americans who are unemployed, or stuck in part-time jobs when what they really want is full-time work.”

The big question is whether the economy will continue to improve. The recent job growth, on its own, is not enough to keep unemployment falling at a significant pace.

But there is some reason for optimism. The Labor Department conducts two surveys each month, one of households and one of businesses. The business survey produces the widely cited number on job changes — 200,000 in December.

The household survey, although usually more volatile, can sometimes provide a more accurate estimate at turning points. IT often captures jobs at new companies that are not included in the business survey.

Over the past six months, the household survey shows an average monthly gain of about 230,000, compared with a gain of only 142,000 in the business survey. Normal population growth means that the economy needs to add between 125,000 and 150,000 a month to keep unemployment from rising.

If the household survey is really the more accurate one, the good news on jobs may well continue, complicating a central point in the Republican case against Mr. Obama.

On the other hand, some of the recent strength comes from the restocking of warehouses, which will not continue. Europe still has not solved its problems. The troubles in Iran could cause oil prices to jump. And American businesses and consumers, still scarred by the financial crisis, are probably still easy to scare.

No one knows what the economy is going to do in 2012, but the chances of it improving markedly are higher than they were a couple of months ago.

Susan Saulny contributed reporting from Conway, S.C.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=3f23a527a1e44f5d4119bebe8a31053d

U.S. Economy Gains Steam as 200,000 Jobs Are Added

The United States added 200,000 new jobs last month, the Labor Department said Friday, a robust number that came on the heels of a flurry of heartening economic news. Consumer confidence lifted, factories stepped up production and small businesses showed signs of life. The nation’s unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent, its lowest level in nearly two years.

It was the sixth consecutive month that the economy showed a net gain of more than 100,000 jobs — not enough to restore employment to pre-recession levels but enough, perhaps, to cheer President Obama as he enters the election year.

The sustained run of positives had economists like Markus Schomer, of PineBridge Investments, feeling much more optimistic than they did back in August, after a spring and summer of lost economic ground and a demoralizing debate over the debt ceiling.

At that time, Mr. Schomer thought, as many did, that government dysfunction was paralyzing the economy. Now, he is ratcheting up his growth forecast for 2012.

“The improving trend in the U.S. labor markets is not just a temporary blip, but seems to be something quite sustainable,” he said, adding that the improvement had come despite continued Washington gridlock.

Among the pieces of good news in Friday’s report: The drop in the jobless rate came largely from real gains, not from discouraged workers giving up the job hunt. The new jobs were spread broadly across industries, with transportation and warehousing, retail, manufacturing and restaurants all adding jobs.

In addition, average wages ticked up by 4 cents an hour, though over the year wages have not kept pace with inflation. And government downsizing, which has been a drag on the jobs numbers, slowed in December, with only 12,000 public jobs lost. The private sector added 212,000 jobs.

In another positive sign, the unemployment rate seemed to be dropping at a faster rate than the number of new jobs would imply, perhaps because new businesses and the newly self-employed are less likely to be captured by the Labor Department’s survey of businesses, from which the job numbers are drawn, than by its survey of households, from which the unemployment rate is calculated.

Economists continued to warn of potential dangers ahead, including disaster in the euro zone, increased tensions with Iran leading to higher gas prices, and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts. Congress may yet decline to continue extensions of the payroll tax break and unemployment benefits that have given spending a boost. Money, in the form of loans, is still hard to come by, and home prices have continued to fall.

There is also a sense of déjà vu, since hopes were similarly buoyed by good news last year at this time. Those hopes, Mr. Schomer pointed out, were soon dashed by the earthquake in Japan. “I’m a little bit concerned that Iran could be this year’s Japan,” he said.

Still, context is everything. The same modest upward trends that a few months ago were dismissed as far too anemic to do much are now being greeted with tentative praise. “People were very much thinking that the sky was falling,” said Tom Porcelli, an economist at RBC Capital Markets. “It’s no small victory that we’re up here, even with all these headwinds.”

Economists ventured to suggest that the good news and consumer confidence might feed off each other, leading to further increases in spending that, they hope, will be followed by the wage increases necessary to sustain that spending.

Bullish types were quick to trumpet the American economy’s resilience. “This is the real thing,” said Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics. “This is finally the economy throwing off the shackles of the credit crunch.”

The Labor Department numbers were foreshadowed Thursday in a report by ADP, the payroll processing company, that showed a whopping gain of 325,000 private-sector jobs in December. ADP’s reports do not always correlate with the Labor Department’s findings, but they can provide additional insight. Diane Swonk, an economist with Mesirow Financial, said most of the new jobs in the ADP report were at small businesses and that generally only newer small businesses use a payroll company.

“It’s one of those things where you look at that and say, ‘That would be really cool if that continues,’ ” Ms. Swonk said. “It’s not just small business — it’s new business formation.”

Other factors, like seasonal adjustment, could be making the economy look better than it is. Seasonal adjustments are calculated based on the patterns of recent years. Because the recession began in December 2007, a drop-off at that time of year is now part of the pattern, and anything else looks better by comparison.

The seasonal adjustments may not wholly account for trends like online shopping, which boosted hiring of couriers and messengers by 42,000, a gain that economists expect to be reversed now that the holiday season has ended.

But there is more to the good news than statistical flukes, said Ellen Zentner, an economist with Nomura, pointing to the big jump in consumer confidence in December. “People do not feel more upbeat for no reason,” she said.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: January 6, 2012

Because of an editing error, an earlier version of this article, and an e-mail alert, misstated the unemployment figure for November. Although it was initially given a month ago as 8.6 percent, it was revised Friday to 8.7 percent.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=50f4d5ca0c79b305b8295c55778a5f01

You’re the Boss Blog: My Resolutions for 2012

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Putting a price on business.

I love making New Year’s resolutions. No matter if 25 percent of resolutions are forgotten within a week, and 88 percent go by the wayside entirely. It’s a time to wipe the slate clean, reset expectations and get excited about what lies ahead. It’s a time for hope, and I’ll take hope for any reason. While I have run across a number of excellent lists for both business and personal resolutions this week, I thought I’d share some of mine and invite you to share yours. Bring on 2012!

Learn: At the top of my list for 2012 is learning how to play golf. I grew up watching my dad play golf, although it wasn’t until later in life that I wished he had taught me the game. I love playing sports and am competitive by nature –  just ask my husband. I’m also intrigued by whether golf is the great game of business that everyone says it is. Also on my list is getting better with my digital SLR camera, as well as learning how to edit my photos using PhotoShop Elements. Blog posts look better with a photo, after all.

Enjoy: I am officially done with this recession. I’m done wallowing in fear and uncertainty, wondering whether my business will survive — which it thankfully has so far — and when the business-for-sale marketplace will turn around. I’m ready to move on, regardless. I’m going to tune into the noise less and enjoy life more. Among other things, there are a beautiful new art museum in my home town that I’ve only begun to explore, friends to connect with and vacations to be had. Sorry crumby economy, I’m over you.

Save: One good thing about these lean years has been figuring out how to squeeze every last expense out your business. Last year I got my company’s e-mail and documents moved into the cloud with Google Apps for Business and Dropbox, both of which I’ve been very happy with. My annual information technology expenses now total a whopping $170.40. At home we finally weaned ourselves off of the land line. In 2012 I’m going to tackle telecommunications at our business by exploring cloud-based solutions like Ring Central. I’m also going to look into using a credit card for both business and personals expenses that racks up either cash rewards or airline miles. I’m starting my research here.

Read: I mean books, as in the kind you can hold and smell (I can’t be the only one who loves to pick up a book, hold it close, flip the pages and take a whiff). I aspire to read a book a week, like a colleague of mine, but I’m a realist and have set a goal to read at least 15 books in 2012. The first three non-fiction titles on my list are “Linchpin: Are You Indispensable” by Seth Godin, “Never Eat Alone: And Other Secrets to Success, One Relationship at a Time” by Keith Ferrazzi, and “Boomerang: Travels in the New Third World” by Michael Lewis. Part of my 2011 savings plan was to cut down on buying books and get reacquainted with the adult section of my public library; I’ve been stuck in children’s books for about seven years now. It’s a beautiful relationship that has been a happy byproduct of last year’s resolutions.

Fix: I do most of my writing from my home office on a MacBook Pro. After almost three years of heavy use, the seven key is failing and things seem to be taking longer than they should. The old gray laptop just ain’t what it used to be. Time to visit my local geeks and get an overhaul, something my Web site is also in desperate need of. I’ve set my marketing budget for 2012, and these guys will be getting the lion’s share. It’s time to get serious about integrating my online marketing and social media strategies, regardless of how well the band-aids have worked up to this point.

I can think of plenty of others, like clean, play, write, sleep. But these are some of my New Year’s resolutions in a word, or two. What are yours?

Barbara Taylor is co-owner of a business brokerage firm, Synergy Business Services, in Bentonville, Ark. You can follow her on Twitter.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=5f2c5620afaa726050975b0bd4584f36

Claims for Jobless Benefits Up in Latest Week

WASHINGTON — The number of people seeking unemployment benefits for the first time rose last week, the Labor Department said Thursday, but the broader trend over the past month suggested job growth could pick up in the new year.

Meanwhile, an index of signed contracts for home purchases in November rose 7.3 percent to 100.1 points, the highest level in a year and a half, according to a report Thursday from the National Association of Realtors.

A reading of 100 points is considered healthy, but a growing number of buyers are canceling their contracts at the last minute, making the gauge less reliable.

Weekly applications for jobless benefits increased by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 381,000 after three weeks of declines, the Labor Department said.

Still, the four-week average, a less volatile measure, dropped for the fourth consecutive week to 375,000. That’s the lowest level since June 2008.

Applications generally need to fall consistently below 375,000 to signal that hiring is strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate.

While layoffs have fallen sharply since the recession officially ended two and a half years ago, many companies have been slow to add jobs.

Still, employers have added an average of 143,000 net jobs a month from September through November, almost double the average for the previous three months.

Next year is expected to be even better. A survey of 36 economists by The Associated Press this month found that they predicted the economy would generate an average of about 175,000 jobs a month in 2012.

More small businesses plan to hire than at any time in three years, a trade group said earlier this month. And a separate private-sector survey found more companies are planning to add workers in the first quarter of next year than at any time since 2008.

In November, the unemployment rate fell to 8.6 percent from 9 percent. Still, about half that decline occurred because many of the unemployed gave up looking for work. When people stop looking for a job, they’re no longer counted as unemployed.

And Congress last week agreed to keep emergency unemployment benefits for two additional months. Economists worried that ending the extended unemployment benefits program would have left Americans with less money to spend.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=95ee6c54b021b52bd871d53658cfafcc

Bankrupt Chain Restaurants Are Still Holding On

Many of the undead are part of familiar chains that filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection this year: Friendly’s, Chevys, Sbarro, Perkins. The zombie restaurants, barely bringing in enough cash to cover basic expenses, always seem to be one sizzling fajita or glazed chicken skewer away from a merciful end, but somehow keep hanging on — leaving too many restaurants chasing after scarce dining dollars.

“There’s a lot of walking dead,” said Bob Goldin, executive vice president for Technomic, a consulting firm that works with restaurant companies. “A lot of chains, they hang in there and they’re hard to kill off.”

Consumers, who have generally cut back on the number of meals out since the recession began, are benefiting from the proliferation of zombies. Healthy and failing restaurants alike have been forced to discount relentlessly to lure diners. But for the restaurants, particularly small independent operators, the competition from the undead is a nightmare that just won’t end.

The hard times for restaurants began in 2008, as the recession and staggering unemployment forced Americans to cut back on dining out. During the 12-month period ending in August, the average American ate or got takeout at restaurants 195 times, down from 208 times in 2008, according to Harry Balzer, the chief food industry analyst for the NPD Group.

The industry puffed up like a soufflé in the boom years. Led by quickly expanding chains, the number of restaurants in the country grew by more than 100,000 from 1996 to 2008. By that year, there were 545,678 restaurants nationwide, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

When things turned bad, many analysts said the total number of restaurants needed to shrink by at least 20,000 to bring supply and demand back into balance.

Instead, the number of restaurants kept growing, albeit more slowly.

Sales have taken a beating along the way. For example, at Applebee’s, one of the nation’s largest midprice chains with more than 2,000 restaurants, sales at restaurants open at least 18 months slumped every quarter from mid-2008 through the middle of 2010. The chain’s sales have grown modestly since then, compared with the low level of sales during the recession, but dipped again in the three months ending Sept. 30.

Analysts say the restaurant industry bears some similarities to the consumer electronics retail industry. Before 2009, there were far too many electronics stores. Then, Circuit City failed, closing 567 stores. The sudden shuttering was painful for the chain’s 34,000 employees, but it meant greater market share for other retailers, like Best Buy, Walmart and Target.

“We need that Circuit City event,” said Steve West, a restaurant industry analyst for ITG Investment Research.

That kind of reckoning has remained elusive, despite bankruptcy filings this year by several major chains.

When Friendly’s Ice Cream, the chain based in Massachusetts, filed for bankruptcy protection in October, it said it would close 63 underperforming restaurants. But the company said it would continue to operate 420 stores, and a spokesman said it was making plans to expand again.

In California, Real Mex Restaurants, which owns several chains, including the midprice Chevys Fresh Mex, closed just 30 outlets after it filed for bankruptcy in October. It continues to operate 156 restaurants.

After Sbarro, the Italian fast-food chain, filed for bankruptcy in April, it closed 31 stores in the United States, but kept the doors open on 429.

Mr. West said that many chains and independent restaurants were able to survive the recession because their costs fell along with demand. Labor costs went down, as high unemployment led to lower worker turnover and gave restaurant owners greater ability to adjust worker schedules and hours.

Prices for food commodities also fell sharply. “It saved all these companies that we thought were going bankrupt,” Mr. West said.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=8ace4c516aa5289f339b58da56d5480e

Business Briefing | Economic News: Official Predicts Recession Is Returning to Spain

Opinion »

All Under One Roof

Room for Debate asks: Is it so bad for young adults to move back in with their parents?

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=1a073114cbb7e29acfd2cf607aae9141