The economy has added 1.5 million jobs over the last year, and the pace seems to be picking up. The unemployment rate last month, 8.5 percent, was at its lowest level since February 2009, Mr. Obama’s first full month in office.
Of course, the economy has been here before, only to fall back again. In both early 2010 and early 2011, job growth picked up briefly, before the continuing global financial crisis — including Europe’s problems — again reasserted itself.
The White House made the mistake of reacting too quickly and positively to some of that earlier news. It went so far as to refer to the summer of 2010 as “recovery summer.”
As they had in recent weeks, Mr. Obama and his aides noted the good news on Friday, though they said there was a long way to go, and urged Congress to extend the payroll tax cut and pass other parts of the president’s agenda.
“The economy is moving in the right direction,” Mr. Obama said. “We’re creating jobs on a consistent basis.”
But he added: “There are a lot of people that are still hurting out there. After losing more than 8 million jobs in the recession, obviously, you know, we have a lot more work to do.”
And the economy clearly remains a problem for Mr. Obama. Shortly after the release of the jobs report, Mitt Romney, the winner of this week’s Republican caucus in Iowa, said at a campaign stop in South Carolina, “This president doesn’t understand how the economy works.”
In a statement, Mr. Romney called the unemployment numbers “good news” but said it is “no cause for celebration.” He added: “President Obama’s policies have slowed the recovery and created misery for 24 million Americans who are unemployed, or stuck in part-time jobs when what they really want is full-time work.”
The big question is whether the economy will continue to improve. The recent job growth, on its own, is not enough to keep unemployment falling at a significant pace.
But there is some reason for optimism. The Labor Department conducts two surveys each month, one of households and one of businesses. The business survey produces the widely cited number on job changes — 200,000 in December.
The household survey, although usually more volatile, can sometimes provide a more accurate estimate at turning points. IT often captures jobs at new companies that are not included in the business survey.
Over the past six months, the household survey shows an average monthly gain of about 230,000, compared with a gain of only 142,000 in the business survey. Normal population growth means that the economy needs to add between 125,000 and 150,000 a month to keep unemployment from rising.
If the household survey is really the more accurate one, the good news on jobs may well continue, complicating a central point in the Republican case against Mr. Obama.
On the other hand, some of the recent strength comes from the restocking of warehouses, which will not continue. Europe still has not solved its problems. The troubles in Iran could cause oil prices to jump. And American businesses and consumers, still scarred by the financial crisis, are probably still easy to scare.
No one knows what the economy is going to do in 2012, but the chances of it improving markedly are higher than they were a couple of months ago.
Susan Saulny contributed reporting from Conway, S.C.
Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=3f23a527a1e44f5d4119bebe8a31053d
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