December 21, 2024

Central Bank Loans Ease Euro Credit Strain, for Now

The E.C.B., making an offer too good for Europe’s banks to refuse, reported Wednesday that it had doled out almost half a trillion euros in low-cost three-year loans to keep credit flowing at a time when European banks are finding it all but impossible to finance their operations through normal market channels.

The lending reduces the “risk of a Lehman-type situation, where banks go into the new year facing a wave of refinancing and are unable to access the market,” said Jacques Cailloux, the chief euro zone economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.

But it is probably only a temporary solution. By acting essentially as a lender of last resort to the European financial system, the E.C.B. managed mainly to buy time for Europe to work out its longer-range problems of excessive debts, lagging economic competitiveness and limited fiscal unity.

The E.C.B. allocated €489.2 billion, or $639 billion, to 523 institutions, well above the roughly €300 billion estimate of analysts polled by Reuters and Bloomberg News.

Even as Mario Draghi, the new E.C.B. president, continues to resist calls to stand directly behind sovereign debtors without limit, the scale of the liquidity injection suggested that the E.C.B. is prepared to indirectly support them through the banking system.

Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics and a self-described bear on the European outlook, said he was stunned by the size of the monetary operation, saying it suggested Mr. Draghi had “shown a path toward averting catastrophic collapse in Europe.”

Coupled with an easing of reserve requirements announced this month, Mr. Weinberg said, the results suggested that the E.C.B. had injected around €400 billion into the financial system so far in December.

“This is exactly what happened in the United States with the Fed in 2008,” Mr. Weinberg said. “They bought toxic assets and withdrew them from the market, and gave the money they printed to the banks, who put that money into the government bonds that were sold to fund TARP.” (TARP is the acronym for one of the U.S. bailout funds used to protect the U.S. banking system from failure.)

Mr. Draghi has been reluctant to involve the E.C.B. directly in the market for sovereign debt, saying the bank is forbidden by treaty from financing governments or engaging in the sort of “quantitative easing,” or pumping money into the economy, carried out by the U.S. Federal Reserve and others.

But Carsten Brzeski, an economist in Brussels with ING Group, said the infusion of funds Wednesday nonetheless “amounted to a bit of a backdoor Q.E.,” because the funds made available to the banks could then be lent to European governments at higher rates with little risk. That should ease the strains within both the banking system and the market for European government bonds.

In exchange for collateral, lenders borrowed at the E.C.B.’s benchmark interest rate, currently 1 percent. Mr. Brzeski noted they could then use the funds to purchase the debt of euro zone governments, pocketing the difference as profit. Spanish bonds of two-year duration, for example, yield around 3.4 percent; in Italy rates are even higher.

Mr. Draghi acknowledged during a speech to the European Parliament on Monday that banks might be doing just that. “We don’t know how many government bonds they are going to buy,” he said.

Strong demand at recent Spanish debt auctions has driven down yields, suggesting that banks are loading up on the debt to use as collateral for the E.C.B. loans, analysts said. But there are limits to their appetites for sovereign debt at a time when they are trying to reduce their vulnerability to a potential debt default by a country like Greece or Italy, and protect themselves against the possibility of a breakup of the euro zone.

The injection of three-year funds was one of the new measures announced by the E.C.B. on Dec. 8 to calm European credit markets. It was the first time that the E.C.B. had extended such loans for longer than about a year.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/22/business/global/demand-for-ecb-loans-surpasses-expectations.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

As Market Tension Builds, World Leaders Ponder Response

As the shock of Friday’s downgrade of United States debt reverberated dangerously with anxiety about European liabilities, central bankers and national leaders were under pressure to try to do something to restore confidence before Asian markets opened, and to prevent an extension of the rout that began last week.

As Group of 20 leaders conferred by phone, the governing council of the European Central Bank was holding an emergency conference call late Sunday. The central bank was likely to discuss whether to buy Spanish and Italian bonds to prevent borrowing costs for those countries from becoming unsustainable. But with signs of slowing growth in the United States and Europe, and government budgets and central bank balance sheets stretched to the limit, the policy options were dwindling.

Some analysts said that the European Central Bank would itself need help from other central banks and nations because of the scale of the problem.

“They just can’t allow the Italian economy to go down the tubes. It would be a Lehman-type situation,” Uri Dadush, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on Sunday. He was referring to the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008, which touched off the global financial crisis.

Mr. Dadush put the cost of a bailout of Italy at $1.4 trillion, with Spain requiring another $700 billion. Those amounts would be a challenge for even the most solvent European countries, foremost among them Germany.

Finance ministers of the Group of 7 and Group of 20 nations were conferring on Sunday, Reuters reported, but it was not clear whether there was enough support for a substantial coordinated intervention in the markets — or even whether that would be a good idea.

“I don’t know if there is a policy response that makes sense, except support the banks,” Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist of High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y., said on Sunday. He said the European Central Bank, which has already expanded its cheap loans to banks, should make even greater sums available so that institutions could survive a decline in the value of their holdings of Spanish and Italian debt.

In a sign of the acute tension after Standard Poor’s lowered the rating for long-term United States debt to AA+ from AAA, stock markets in the Middle East fell in Sunday trading, and the Tel Aviv exchange delayed opening for the first time since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Market circuit breakers kicked in after opening prices were down more than 5 percent. The Israeli benchmark stock index closed down 7 percent.

The European Central Bank on Thursday intervened in European bond markets for the first time since March. But it appeared that the bank was buying only relatively small amounts of Portuguese and Irish bonds. The central bank may have intended a warning shot to signal its resolve, but markets seemed to have interpreted the modest intervention as a sign of weakness.

The move also reopened divisions on the bank’s governing council, with Jens Weidmann, president of the German Bundesbank, and several other members opposing the bond purchases.

“This type of bond market intervention is unlikely to achieve much,” Antonio Garcia Pascual, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said in a note. Even if the central bank starts buying Italian and Spanish bonds, “this begs the question of how far the E.C.B. is ready to go down that route — a proposition that markets may be testing in the weeks ahead.”

Mr. Weinberg said that even the European Central Bank would be hard-pressed to buy enough bonds to hold down yields on Spanish and Italian debt in the long term and to prevent the countries’ borrowing costs from reaching levels that would eventually prove ruinous.

Judy Dempsey contributed reporting from Berlin, and Liz Alderman from Paris.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/business/global/as-market-tension-builds-world-leaders-ponder-response.html?partner=rss&emc=rss