But that does not mean failure will be met with a shrug.
At stake is not simply the country’s fiscal health, but also what remains of the government’s credibility. Without an agreement in sight, investors, business leaders and consumers, already worried about the deepening crisis in Europe, have begun to brace for the possibility of yet another blow to a fragile recovery, this time from Washington.
“The decision of the supercommittee goes beyond just the budget. It’s become a symbol now of the ability of our elected representatives to get something done,” said Frank Newport, the editor in chief of Gallup, which tracks public opinion of politics and the economy. “And if the supercommittee fails, I think the reaction of the public, based on the data, will be even more negative, not just about the government but their confidence in the economy in general.”
As if to underscore this point, the committee’s deadline arrives in perfect alignment with the holiday shopping season. Consumer confidence, which collapsed under the threat of a government default this summer, has just begun to convalesce. Business leaders have grown increasingly pessimistic since the summer, with many chief executives pleading for bold action to lower the deficit.
The debt woes now infecting even the larger economies in Europe should serve as a wake-up call in the United States, James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, said on Thursday.
Despite those warnings, the special committee has been unable to make much progress. If it fails, $1.2 trillion in cuts will begin to take effect. That outcome was built into the law in the summer, after the debate over raising the debt ceiling brought the country uncomfortably close to default, and was meant to pressure the committee into a resolution.
Lately, there has been talk of a possible two-step solution that merely sets goals for revenue and spending and leaves the details to be worked out later.
Pessimism is running so high, and public approval of Congress is so low, it is not clear that such an outcome would be perceived as a success.
“They’re going to agree on anything just to pacify everything for the next six months or a year,” said Tim Scott, 56, who owns a construction company in Washington State.
“All they’re doing is putting a Band-Aid on everything.” Mr. Scott said he had bought land for a new house but had put off building until the economy’s direction became clear.
A weak agreement could send the wrong signal to skittish investors. “That would introduce uncertainty, and demonstrate the inability of Congress to make decisions,” said Zane E. Brown, the fixed-income strategist at asset management firm Lord Abbett. “That supports S. P.’s contention behind why they downgraded us in the first place and perhaps justifies in their minds an additional downgrade. That is a risk few investors are anticipating.”
In August, Standard Poor’s, the ratings agency, cited political brinksmanship in Washington when it downgraded the country from AAA, the agency’s top credit rating.
While few analysts actually expect more reductions in the credit rating of the United States, the agencies have left open that possibility.
In mid-September, S. P. warned of a one-in-three chance that the rating would be cut again within the next two years. The agency has said it will be watching the committee’s deliberations.
Moody’s confirmed the top rating for American government debt over the summer but with a negative outlook. Even if the committee does not reach an agreement, Moody’s said it would probably not lead to a downgrade if the automatic spending cuts went into effect. Some Republicans, though, have promised to prevent the cuts if no agreement is reached.
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