December 21, 2024

Stocks in Emerging Markets Take Brunt of Fed Fears

LONDON — Shares around the world, particularly those in emerging economies, fell Tuesday as investors braced for the phasing out of an American central bank stimulus program that has shored up markets for the past few years.

Stock benchmarks and currencies in developing countries like India and Indonesia have been hammered as funds flowed out of their markets in anticipation of a reduction in stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

Indonesia’s benchmark index, which dived 5 percent on Monday, suffered another 3.2 percent drop Tuesday. India’s Sensex was down 0.3 percent after sliding 5.6 percent in the previous two sessions. India’s currency, the rupee, fell to a record low of 64.11 rupees to the dollar.

Emerging markets have been hit by expectations that the Fed would reduce the amount of financial assets it buys in the markets — currently $85 billion a month — amid signs of improvement in the American economy. The stimulus was intended to spur borrowing and investment through easy access to liquidity. Many investors used the cheap money to buy stocks, particularly in fast-growing developing economies.

“The shift in sentiment and capital flows back towards developed markets is being keenly felt, leading to a major pickup in volatility,” said Michael Every, an analyst at Rabobank International.

Financial assets in emerging economies weren’t the only ones taking a hit on the expectation that the Fed would begin tapering its stimulus next month. Stocks on Wall Street have recorded a four-day losing streak for the first time in 2013 as borrowing rates in the markets have edged up to their highest levels since 2011.

The Fed is likely to remain the focus of attention in markets over the rest of the week, especially on Wednesday, when the minutes to the Fed’s July policy meeting are published. Investors will be looking for any hints of when the bank might begin cutting back on its stimulus.

In Asia, it wasn’t just the emerging markets suffering. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index, the regional heavyweight, tumbled 2.6 percent to finish at 13,396.38, its lowest close since June 27. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 2.2 percent to 21,970.29 while Australia’s SP/ASX 200 lost 0.7 percent to 5,078.20. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.6 percent to 1,887.85.

Trading in the currency markets was choppy, with the euro 0.7 percent higher at $1.3427 and the dollar 0.3 percent lower at 97.30 yen.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/21/business/stocks-in-emerging-markets-take-brunt-of-fed-fears.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Bucks Blog: There Is No Perfect (or Permanent) Financial Plan

Carl Richards

Carl Richards is a certified financial planner in Park City, Utah. His new book, “The Behavior Gap,” was published earlier this month. His sketches are archived here on the Bucks blog.

Given the amount of time in each day and the number of resources we have at our disposal, it’s only natural that we have an expectation that we’re going to get the decisions we make about money “perfect.”

Over time, we figure out how much money we should spend and define our financial priorities. But then things change and we have to make another decision, leaving us frustrated.

If we have to keep making the decisions over and over, then what’s the point?

Whether we like it or not, life is not static. We don’t live in bubbles. And even though one day may look very much like another, life is rarely the exact same every week let alone from year to year. Perhaps the basics stay the same — work, school, relationships — but little things change, and we learn to adapt to those changes.

We need to think the same way about money. Even after we make smart decisions life will continue to happen.

The decision to save money each month may need to change if someone loses a job. The decision to have another child may mean that you need to buy a new car sooner than planned. The decision to retire early may be put on hold after a health emergency. In each example, no one did anything wrong; life happened.

The unavoidable reality we face is that few financial decisions are set in stone. At some point, we’ll need to recalibrate, to take into account new circumstances that change our decisions. Too often people get caught up in thinking that this recalibration is a sign they made a mistake. Hardly. They just have a life.

In fact, in many ways, if you aren’t recalibrating your decisions as you go, then you’re likely ignoring decisions that will turn into mistakes and compound over time.

But, even as you look to recalibrate, you can’t ignore that some of these inputs will be outside your control, which takes us back to the idea of making perfect decisions. At any given point, we may make what appears to be a “perfect” decision, but there’s only so much that’s in our control.

It all brings the Serenity Prayer to mind:

God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change; courage to change the things I can; and wisdom to know the difference.

Our goal shouldn’t be to pursue perfection in our decision making, but to get really good at knowing when we need to make a change. It will take practice and likely be something you need to do for the rest of your life.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=966bee683872ca2b86781ca9d29d6fbf

Bucks: Planning for Retirement While Helping Out the Children

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No wonder retirement planning is getting more complex. Many older Americans’ sense of financial security remains rattled by the recession, and now many of them expect to have to help other family members financially, including adult children, after they retire.

Those are some findings of the SunAmerica Retirement Re-Set Study, a telephone survey conducted in April by Harris Interactive on behalf of SunAmerica Financial Group and Age Wave, which track aging trends. The survey questioned 1,001 people aged 55 and older about their views on retirement and financial security.

Half of those surveyed said they expected to have to balance their own retirement plans with the expectation of providing financial help to family members. And in turn, 70 percent of those who said they would have to help relatives indicated they would need to help adult children, specifically.

“The last few years have left a large chunk of the population in a tighter situation than they’d like to be in,” says Ken Dychtwald, chief executive of Age Wave. “So if they need help making payments on a home, or have kids in college, people are turning to the bank of mom and dad.”

The need to provide additional support can complicate one’s retirement savings calculations, he says. Previously, the biggest wild cards in retirement savings were how long you might live and unanticipated health costs, like a nursing home. “That hasn’t changed,” he said. “But now you have to add to it the cost of having to help other members of your family.”

In an initial version of the survey conducted 10 years ago, most people surveyed expected to retire at age 64, but this year’s survey finds that expectation is age 69; people expect to work longer to replenish their nest eggs, and they also say they consider some work fulfilling. (That change is already showing up in employment data, the study notes: 16 percent of those over 65 are now employed, compared with less than 13 percent in 2001.)

Do you expect you will have to help other family members, like adult children, financially in retirement? How is that affecting your plans for retirement savings?

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=9451a3be84d294d6f8a7d757978237a6

Apple Stores Chief to Take the Helm at J.C. Penney

Ron Johnson of Apple will become Penney’s chief executive on Nov. 1, when Myron E. Ullman III, the current chief executive, steps down to become executive chairman, the company said Tuesday.

Given that most products can be bought online, retailers have been trying to give shoppers reasons to go to stores — known as “retail theater” or “retailtainment” in the industry. Arguably, no business has done that better than Apple under Mr. Johnson, who turned the boring computer sales floor into a sleek playroom filled with gadgets.

Retail analysts said the expectation was that Mr. Johnson could similarly transform Penney, which like many traditional big mall retailers has been struggling since the recession and the huge growth of online shopping.

“If he can take a little bit of that magic and sprinkle it on to J. C. Penney, you could really create the next generation of retailing,” said Deborah Weinswig, a retail analyst with Citigroup. “We’re at a very interesting kind of intersection right now where retail needs to be fun, it needs to be exciting.”

Since Mr. Johnson did not seem to be in line for the chief executive job at Apple, the move to J. C. Penney, based in Plano, Tex., gives him a chance to run a company. Still, it was seen as a surprising step at a time when Apple’s retail stores continue to thrive.

“My lifetime dream has been to lead one of the large great retailers, to reimagine what it could be,” said Mr. Johnson, who was vice president for merchandising at Target Stores before joining Apple in 2000.

“In the U.S., the department store has a chance to regain its status as the leader in style, the leader in excitement,” he said in an interview. “It will be a period of true innovation for this company.”

Investors cheered the hire, with Penney shares rising 17 percent, to close at $35.37.

Yet the job ahead will be very different from Mr. Johnson’s role at Apple, which already had a cult following when he joined it. And Apple’s imprint got bigger and bigger with a its rat-a-tat hits, from the iPod to the iPhone to the iPad.

“Apple sells best-in-class product and faces basically little to no competition,” said Michelle Clark, an analyst with Morgan Stanley. “J. C. Penney, on the other hand, operates in an intensely competitive industry and sells merchandise that is undifferentiated versus peers and in fact has been lagging peers.”

J. C. Penney’s sales in 2010 were $17.76 billion, up 1.2 percent from the prior year, but still more than 10 percent below 2007 sales.

J. C. Penney had first contacted Mr. Johnson three or four years ago, Mr. Ullman said.

This time, the wooing of Mr. Johnson started with two activist investors. In November, Pershing Square Capital Management and Vornado Realty Trust bought 26.4 percent of J. C. Penney stock. In January, William A. Ackman from Pershing and Steven Roth from Vornado joined the Penney board, and as part of that arrangement, got to appoint an additional director. While Mr. Johnson was intrigued by the possibility, he did not want to become just a board member, and asked for the chief executive position, according to people briefed on the matter who were not authorized to speak publicly.

“Ron Johnson is the Steve Jobs of the retail industry,” Mr. Ackman said in an interview.

Still, Penney seems to have limited Mr. Johnson’s role. He will have the marketing, product and merchandising functions reporting to him. But all other major departments, including finance, stores, JCPenney.com, corporate communications and legal will continue to report to Mr. Ullman.

“His role is more like that of a chief merchant than it is of a C.E.O.,” said Ms. Clark of Morgan Stanley.

To make up for Mr. Johnson’s stock options at Apple, he will receive restricted Penney stock worth $50 million as of Monday’s close. With the jump in stock price, it was worth more than $58 million by the close on Tuesday.

He is also investing $50 million of his own money in J. C. Penney by buying warrants on the company’s stock. In 2017, the warrants will give him the right to buy more than seven million shares at $29.92 a share, meaning that if he can raise the stock price he stands to make a hefty profit.

Mr. Johnson’s annual salary will be $1.5 million, and he will be eligible for a bonus of 125 percent of that amount if he meets certain targets. Still, “this guy has become enormously wealthy on Apple stock options,” said Charles Wolf, an analyst with Needham and Company. “He certainly doesn’t need the money.”

During his tenure at Apple, Mr. Johnson received total compensation valued at $141 million, according to Equilar, an executive compensation research firm. The analysis excludes the years 2008 and 2009, during which Mr. Johnson realized additional stock gains valued at more than $100 million, Equilar said.

Mr. Johnson did not specify what his plans were for Penney.

“I don’t have a priority list,” he said. “I have so many ideas in my head that I can’t quite sort them out, to tell you the truth.”

As for his experience, he said: “Apple has taught me, really, what breakthrough innovation is and how to energize teams to accomplish that. I’ve seen that happen on the product side at Apple; we’ve done that in our stores. I think that’s what I bring.”

While Mr. Ullman, who has been chief executive for seven years, has been praised for bringing in brands like Liz Claiborne, MNG by Mango and Sephora into Penney’s stores, his tenure has been marked by the recession, when the company’s middle-class shoppers cut way back on spending.

Michael J. de la Merced contributed reporting.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=efe1fcab4d11e1a8b13c43493536ea52