November 18, 2024

Home Sales Fall 0.8%; 3rd Drop in 3 Months

The National Association of Realtors said home sales fell 0.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million homes. That is far below the six million homes a year rate that economists say represents a healthy housing market.

June’s decrease was the third consecutive monthly decline in home sales.

Through the first six months of 2011, the number of sales is behind last year’s 4.91 million homes sold — the weakest sales in 13 years. Sales have fallen in four of the last five years.

The association said a record number of people who signed contracts canceled their deals last month. And first-time buyers are becoming a smaller share of the market.

Sales of single-family homes held steady in June, while sales of condominiums declined 7 percent.

Bigger down payments, tougher lending rules, high debt and a shortage of desirable starter homes are deterring many would-be buyers. Even some people with good credit and enough money for a down payment are delaying because they are worried that prices will keep falling.

“It all goes back to uncertainty about the future and hiring,” said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

First-time buyers made up just 31 percent of sales in June, when normally they make up about half of all home sales. First-time buyers are valuable in the housing market because they tend to keep their homes for years and because their purchases allow sellers to move to more expensive homes.

About 16 percent of home deals were canceled last month, four times the number in May and the highest level since such record keeping began more than a year ago. A sale is not final until a mortgage is closed.

The median sales price rose nearly 9 percent in June from May, to $184,300. The increase was mainly a result of seasonal factors that led to a big increase in prices in the Northeast and West.

Sales were uneven across the country. In May, sales rose 0.5 percent in the West and 1 percent in the Midwest and fell 1.7 percent in the South and 5.2 percent in the Northeast.

The supply of unsold homes rose slightly in June to 3.77 million. At last month’s sales pace, it would take 9.5 months to sell those homes.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=c3095b2a58206e06b16199ab021c3442

Economix: Less Interest in Leaving Home

Fewer residents of the world are trying to get out of Dodge, according to Gallup.

The polling organization found that 14 percent of the world’s adults would be interested in migrating to another country if they could. That is down from the 16 percent of adults with the same desire in 2007.

The numbers are based on telephone and face-to-face interviews with 401,490 adults in 146 countries from 2008 to 2010, and 259,542 adults in 135 countries from 2007 to 2009.

Residents of every area of the world except North America and the European Union decreased their desire to emigrate:

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The biggest decline was in sub-Saharan Africa, although the share of people there wanting to move is still high: 33 percent in 2008-10, versus 38 percent in 2007-9.

Perhaps these declines are signs of improving economic and political conditions in the developing world. Gallup’s analysts, however, suggest that instead the trends may be explained by greater economic uncertainty worldwide, which would make emigration riskier than usual.

For those who did say they wanted to leave their homelands, the most desirable country to move to is the United States, where about a quarter of emigrant-wannabes would choose to land. The next most pined-for destinations are the United Kingdom and Canada. The top non-Western destination, a few places down, is Saudi Arabia.

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Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=e600dab50fefdd85d4af34dbb3976fc9

Strategies: Funny, but I’ve Heard This Market Song Before

“Concerns Over Europe Flare Again, Pushing U.S. Shares Lower,” one said. “Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause One,” said another. “Slowdown Fear Hits Market,” a third declared.

There was a catch, however.

Although the headlines aptly described events of the last two months, they were published in May and June 2010. All of them.

What should we make of this odd recurrence? “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes,” as Mark Twain is often reputed to have said. (I’ve found no compelling evidence that he ever uttered that nifty aphorism. No matter — the line is too good to resist.)

In a telephone interview, Laszlo Birinyi, the veteran market strategist, said he selected those headlines to make a point. “If you feel you’ve seen this before, well, you have,” he said. “The market is in a correction — but so what? We’ve had about five corrections of one kind or another in this bull market. It’s not the end of the world.”

But during long stretches this spring, it may have seemed that it was. The market managed the barest of gains last week, with the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index edging up a mere 0.3 percent. Until then, it had declined for six consecutive weeks, with the S. P. dropping almost 7 percent, wiping out nearly all its gains for 2011. Market declines of that duration are unusual: the S. P. last dropped for six weeks in 2002, with a total decline of almost 15 percent, according to Yardeni Research.

Still, considering the scale of the rally that began in March 2009, the recent losses have been modest. As a technical matter, the decline isn’t even a correction, because stocks haven’t fallen 10 percent from their recent peak. Over all, the S. P. 500 remains almost 90 percent above its 2009 low.

Even if the market’s fall has not been severe, it could easily become so. There are numerous reasons for this spring’s unpleasantness, and they have been alternating in the headlines. On the top of the charts last week: the Greek debt crisis and fears of contagion throughout Europe and beyond.

On Wednesday, for example, Tad Rivelle, chief investment officer for fixed income at TCW in Los Angeles, an asset manager, said that there had been a “very substantial” decline in Treasury yields as investors moved to safer positions. Why? On that particular afternoon, he said, traders worried “that the day of reckoning for Greek bonds” — in which bondholders take losses as a requirement for bailouts — “may be coming sooner than the market had expected.”

The same day, the Irish finance minister said bondholders should share in the losses of battered Irish banks. And Moody’s Investors Service placed three of the largest French banks on review for a downgrade because of their holdings of Greek debt — illustrating the ramifying effects of the debt problems in Europe.

European officials were thrashing out these issues over the weekend, but other troubles are weighing on the markets, too. Take your pick.

It can be argued that investors have been reacting primarily to a slowdown in economic growth in the United States and other developed countries. Rising interest rates in emerging markets like China, where authorities are trying to control inflation by curbing growth, have not helped, either. Nor has a spike in energy prices, albeit one that has abated in recent weeks.

Americans tend to focus on the domestic economy, which grew at a rate of only 1.8 percent in the first quarter. A Labor Department report on June 1 shook up the markets. It said that unemployment had gone back up to 9.1 percent, and that only 54,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were created in May, down sharply from 244,000 in April.

“The monthly jobs report was probably the single most disturbing piece of data” among many items suggesting that the economy is sputtering, said Rich Bryant, head of Treasury trading at MF Global.

Then there is the awkward timing of the Fed’s experiment in quantitative easing, its purchases of longer-term securities. Last August, amid talk that a double-dip recession was imminent, the Fed signaled that it would resume these purchases — promptly dubbed QE2. That announcement helped end the summer doldrums, sending stocks on another leg upward.

But from the very first, QE2 was scheduled to start winding down at the end of this month. Fed officials now say they may delay actually shrinking their gargantuan portfolio — it has swollen to more than $2.8 trillion — until economic conditions improve. Further details may be forthcoming after Fed policy makers meet in Washington this week.

Crucially, however, Fed officials have indicated that they intend to keep short-term interest rates near zero for months to come. If inflation stays low and the economy remains weak, the bond market could well rally further, pushing down yields on 10-year Treasuries to as low as 2.5 percent, Mr. Bryant said.

That assumes timely resolution of another big problem: the dispute over the federal debt ceiling. If Congress doesn’t act by Aug. 2, the United States could default on its debt, an event that could be calamitous.

“The market is assuming that won’t happen,” Mr. Bryant said.

Mr. Rivelle assumes that there will be no default, but that Congress and the White House “will continue wrangling” about budget deficits for months while the economy remains weak. “That would be positive for bonds and negative for stocks,” he said.

As for Mr. Birinyi, he cites what he calls “the Cyrano Principle”: “If the problem is as obvious as the nose on your face, the chances are that everyone else knows it, too.” The markets, he said, are very good at digesting this news and adapting to it. Sooner or later, he says, “unless there is some truly dramatic surprise — and not just something the market is well aware of” — stocks will resume what he expects to be a long run higher.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=6ba44a8fc98450892eaea77a3d7cdd00

Economix: A Chart to Explain Confusion on Jobs

11:27 a.m. | Updated If you are confused about today’s jobs report — job growth was up in April, but so was the unemployment rate — the chart below may help.

The Labor Department does two different surveys of the job market, as I mentioned in an earlier post. A survey of employers produces the estimate of job growth. A survey of households produces the unemployment rate.

Since the recession began, the survey of households has been offering a more optimistic picture of the labor market than the survey of employers. That’s why the blue line in the chart is above the red line: the blue line — which represents the household survey — shows less job loss. The chart begins when the recession did, in December 2007.

Average monthly employment change since December 2007.Bureau of Labor Statistics, via Haver AnalyticsAverage monthly employment change since December 2007.

But now look at the very end of the chart. Do you see how the blue line dips, leaving it closer to the red line? That is today’s jobs report. It doesn’t mean unemployment actually rose last month.

There is still a dark lining here, as that earlier post mentioned. During economic recoveries, the household survey is typically more optimistic than the employer survey — and typically more accurate, too, in part because the employer survey misses jobs created by start-up firms. Over the past three and a half years, the household survey has again been more optimistic. But we learned this morning that it may not have been much more accurate.

Update: Some readers have asked whether the unemployment rate can rise even as employment is growing because more people start looking for work — and thus count as officially unemployed. Theoretically, the answer is yes. This does happen sometimes. But it didn’t happen in April. The unemployment rate rose last month because the household survey showed a decline of 190,000 jobs, not because of a surge in job seekers. That’s why there is no way to reconcile last month’s results of the household survey and employer survey. They make sense only in the context of previous months.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=1c612f0ffc7d89f8f693dd6e863db1f1

Service Sector Expands, Slowly, for a 16th Month

WASHINGTON (AP) — The nation’s service sector expanded in March for the 16th consecutive month, although growth slowed from the previous month’s rate, which was the fastest in more than five years.

The Institute for Supply Management, a private trade group, said on Tuesday that its index of service sector activity dropped to 57.3 last month, from 59.7 in February.

It was the first decline in seven months. Still, any reading above 50 indicates expansion.

The index fell to 37.6 in November 2008, at the height of the financial crisis.

“The report shows a few scattered signs of slowing momentum, but not enough to disrupt the overall picture of continued growth,” said Ryan Wang, an economist at HSBC Securities, about the service index.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=3c2b45cef4a3894c88ad318b576939a9