May 5, 2024

Consumer Confidence Rises and Trade Deficit Falls

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary December reading on consumer confidence climbed Friday for a fourth consecutive month, to 67.7 from 64.1 in November.

“U.S. consumers appear to be ending the year in a better mood,” said Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics in London.

Improved confidence could lead Americans to spend more readily, which would add to the recent momentum from strong retail sales and factory output.

The narrowing in the trade deficit showed that more goods and services bought by businesses and consumers had been produced within the country.

Employment has also made gains in recent months, although some economists expect that the pace of improvement will be too slow for consumers to increase spending for long.

“Although the recent increase may provide that little bit of support to spending in the malls in the coming weeks, it won’t lead to a long and lasting acceleration in consumption growth,” Mr. Dales said.

Economic growth in the United States appears to be accelerating, even as the global economy slows. The euro zone, for example, is widely believed to be slipping into recession as it struggles to contain a sovereign debt crisis.

That crisis, as well as the possibility that the United States will not renew extended unemployment benefits and a payroll tax cut next year, are dark clouds looming over the economy.

With signs of accelerating growth coming up against big risks to the outlook, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold monetary policy steady at a meeting on Tuesday.

Despite the improvement, the consumer sentiment gauge remains well below its historical average, underscoring the fragility of household budgets as many struggle with a weak jobs market.

“There’s still a long way to go before consumer confidence that would be compatible with strong consumer spending,” said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.

Separately, the Commerce Department said that the United States trade deficit narrowed in October to its lowest point in 10 months.

The economy expanded at a 2 percent annual rate during the third quarter. JPMorgan Chase said the trade report meant growth during the fourth quarter could exceed its 3 percent forecast.

The trade gap was $43.5 billion, in line with a consensus estimate from analysts before the report.

While a shrinking trade gap bodes well for fourth-quarter economic output, exports and imports both declined, a sign of some softening in domestic and overseas demand.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=d1102d958bc9881669bdd1d4e5799e87