May 20, 2024

Archives for April 2013

DealBook: UBS Posts $1 Billion First-Quarter Profit

The Swiss bank UBS in Zurich.Michael Buholzer/ReutersUBS is based in Zurich.

LONDON – The Swiss bank UBS, buoyed by strong performances in its wealth management and investment banking operations, reported first-quarter earnings on Tuesday that sharply exceeded analysts’ expectations.

Although the bank said profit fell to 988 million Swiss francs ($1 billion) from 1 billion francs in the period a year earlier, the results were much better than the 412 million francs predicted by a group of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Sergio P. Ermotti, the chief executive, said in a statement that he was very pleased with the performance. He cautioned that it was “too early to declare victory,” but said the earnings showed the company’s “business model works in practice.”

UBS announced a far-reaching overhaul of its business in October to adjust to tighter regulations and the effect of a sluggish European economy. The bank started to eliminate 10,000 jobs, reduce bonus payments, scale back its investment banking trading business and focus more on its successful wealth management operation.

It also sought to rebuild trust among clients and investors after its involvement in some recent scandals. The bank uncovered a $2.3 billion trading loss in 2011 connected with the activities of a former trader, Kweku M. Adoboli, who has since been sentenced to seven years in jail. In December, UBS said it would pay $1.5 billion in fines to settle a case related to the manipulation of the London interbank offered rate, or Libor.

UBS said pretax profit at the investment banking operation rose 92 percent, to 977 million francs. Stronger demand for its equity capital markets services offset a drop in its advisory and debt capital markets business, it said.

Net new money at its global wealth management business was 23.6 billion francs in the first quarter, compared with 10.9 billion francs in the period a year earlier. Pretax profit at wealth management outside the Americas fell 28 percent, to 664 million francs, while earnings at wealth management in the Americas rose 19 percent, to 251 million francs.

UBS has been cutting back more at its investment banking operation than Credit Suisse, its main rival in Switzerland. Mr. Ermotti, who took over UBS at the end of 2011, hired Andrea Orcel from Bank of America Merrill Lynch last year to help overhaul the unit.

Last week, Credit Suisse posted a profit of 1.3 billion francs in the first quarter, up from 44 million francs in the first quarter of 2012, when it booked a loss of 1.6 billion francs on the value of its own debt. The results were helped by a better performance of its investment banking operation.

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/ubs-records-1-billion-first-quarter-profit/?partner=rss&emc=rss

DealBook: Cost-Cutting Helps Lloyds Bank Earn $2.3 Billion

António Horta-Osório, chief executive of the Lloyds Banking Group.Leon Neal/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesAntónio Horta-Osório, chief executive of the Lloyds Banking Group.

LONDON – The Lloyds Banking Group said on Tuesday that first-quarter net profit rose to £1.5 billion ($2.3 billion) from the period a year earlier, as it continued to reduce costs and shed assets.

The result, which beat analysts’ estimates, was a sharp turnaround from the £5 million loss Lloyds posted in the first quarter of 2012.

The bank’s performance was driven by higher revenue in its main retail banking business, falling costs as it sold assets and a reduction in money set aside to cover delinquent mortgages, Lloyds said in a statement.

“We made substantial progress again in the first quarter,” the chief executive, António Horta-Osório, said in the statement.

Shares in Lloyds, which is 39 percent owned by the British government after it received a bailout during the financial crisis, rose almost 5 percent in morning trading in London on Tuesday.

In recent years, Lloyds and other local lenders have had to pay billions of pounds for inappropriately selling insurance products to British customers who did not require them. The bank said it had not set aside additional money to cover the costs for that inappropriate activity.

As British regulators push banks to shore up their capital positions, Lloyds has been increasing its reserves through a series of disposals.

On Monday, Lloyds sold its Spanish operations to Banco Sabadell of Spain. Lloyds is also planning an initial public offering of part of its branch network to meet conditions of its government bailout in 2008. The bank made £394 million last month from selling a 20 percent stake in the wealth management firm St. James’s Place.

In March, regulators said British financial institutions would have to raise an additional £25 billion of capital. Many analysts expect that Lloyds will have to raise additional funds, though it said on Tuesday that it was still waiting to receive guidance from the local authorities.

The bank’s core Tier 1 ratio, a measure of a firm’s ability to weather financial shocks, remained at 8.1 percent under the accountancy rules known as Basel III.

During the first quarter, Lloyds said it had continued to reduce costs and cut the amount of money set aside to cover delinquent loans. Impairment charges fell 40 percent, to £1 billion, from the period a year earlier, while noncore assets fell 6 percent, to £92.1 billion.

Lloyds also said on Tuesday that Matthew Elderfield, deputy governor at the Central Bank of Ireland in charge of financial regulation, would become its new group director of conduct and compliance beginning in October.

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/lloyds-profit-surges-to-2-3-billion/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Today’s Economist: Bruce Bartlett: Wealth Inequality and Political Inequality

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Bruce Bartlett held senior policy roles in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and served on the staffs of Representatives Jack Kemp and Ron Paul. He is the author of “The Benefit and the Burden: Tax Reform — Why We Need It and What It Will Take.”

A crucial question in the debate over income and wealth inequality is whether its growth necessarily leads to a growth in the inequality of political power. If it does, then this is a powerful reason for the federal government to take active measures to reduce income and wealth inequality — even if it comes at an economic cost to the nation.

Today’s Economist

Perspectives from expert contributors.

Conservatives and libertarians generally do not believe that increased inequality is a political or economic problem. To a large extent, I think that is because they fear that acknowledging the problem would require the adoption of policies they find distasteful, immoral and economically counterproductive.

That is, income and wealth would have to be redistributed — taken via taxation from the wealthy and given to the poor. The higher taxes will reduce the incentive to work, save and invest among the wealthy, conservatives and libertarians believe, which will reduce economic growth and lead to the expatriation of the wealthy from the United States, while fostering a culture of dependency among the poor that will reduce their incentive to better themselves and escape poverty.

Insofar as the political dynamics are concerned, conservatives and libertarians are generally fearful of democracy. That is because, in principle, there is essentially no constraint on the ability of the majority to take from the minority and reward themselves in a pure democracy. The founding fathers very much shared this concern and intentionally enacted numerous restraints on the majority to protect the rights of the minority to their wealth. Among these are the federal system, with relatively strong states and a weak national legislature, as compared to parliamentary systems, and a Senate where small, sparsely populated states, per capita, have more influence than large, populous states; a written constitution with strong protection for property rights; and an Electoral College instead of election of the president by pure popular vote.

One reason that conservatives and libertarians obsess over the large percentage of the population that pays no federal income taxes, often put at 47 percent, is the political concern that the nation is very close to a tipping point where the have-nots can take from the haves almost at will.

The simple solution to this problem, to the extent there is one, would be to extend the tax net to some of those now living free of federal income taxation. But this is practically impossible because Republicans, who mainly complain about the large numbers of nontaxpayers, enacted most of the tax policies that removed them from the tax rolls. These include the earned income tax credit and the refundable child credit.

Secondly, almost all Republican legislators have signed a tax pledge promising never to raise taxes for any reason. Most Republicans are also ideologically opposed to a value-added tax, which would be the simplest way of getting everyone to pay some federal taxes to cover the government’s general operations. The payroll tax, which is more broadly based than the income tax, is earmarked to pay Social Security and Medicare benefits only.

Because the simple and obvious solution to their problem is off the table, conservatives and libertarians have concentrated on cutting benefits for the poor. They believe that programs such as unemployment compensation and food stamps subsidize laziness and undermine the work ethic. If such programs were cut, then those now benefiting would be forced into the labor force, where they would become taxpayers and cease being tempted by politicians promising them something for nothing.

The liberal view, by contrast, is that the poor are relatively powerless. They vote in lower percentages than the well-to-do and often suffer from policies to reduce their political influence, such as onerous voter registration requirements, demands for government identification at the polls and long waiting times to vote on Election Day. There is also evidence of growing pressure by employers to force their employees to vote against their own interest and for the employer’s.

Liberals believe our political system is generally more responsive to the interests of the wealthy. The poor, after all, are not major sources of campaign contributions.

But that is only part of the story. The well-to-do are far more likely to be engaged in the political process and to bring their concerns to bear on their elected representatives through direct contact.

Thus we have seen that while the recent budget sequestration has brought hardship to both the poor and the wealthy, Congress has taken no action to relieve the burden on the poor but acted with amazing speed to relieve a key concern of the wealthy — furloughs for Federal Aviation Administration personnel that created airline delays.

A new study by the political scientists Benjamin I. Page, Larry M. Bartels and Jason Seawright presents strong evidence that the wealthy are more aggressive and more successful than the poor at influencing the political system in their favor. This study is based on interviews with 83 wealthy people in Chicago.

The authors contrast the views of those in their survey with those of the general public based on national public opinion polls. They find that the wealthy are much more concerned than the general public about budget deficits, much more in favor of cutting social welfare programs, much less in favor of government jobs programs and much more opposed to government regulation, among other things.

Professors Page, Bartels and Seawright were unwilling to draw firm conclusions about whether the wealthy have disproportionate influence in American politics, owing to the small size of their survey sample. But it is at least obvious that the economic policy preferences of the wealthy strongly overlap with those of the Republican Party.

On the other hand, research by the political scientist Martin Gilens in his book “Affluence and Influence: Economic Inequality and Political Power in America” shows that the wealthy tend to be more liberal than the Republican Party on social issues. By and large, the wealthy are not religious, favor abortion rights and support gay rights.

The best hope for liberals in the future may be to emphasize social issues, which split the Republican Party between the interests of the wealthy and those of religious and social conservatives who dominate primary elections.

Article source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/wealth-inequality-and-political-inequality/?partner=rss&emc=rss

American Public Opposes Action in Syria and North Korea

While the public does not support direct military action in those two countries right now, a broad 70 percent majority favor the use of remotely piloted aircraft, or drones, to carry out bombing attacks against suspected terrorists in foreign countries.

Interest in the Syrian conflict has waned, with 39 percent of those surveyed saying they are following the violence closely, a 15-percentage-point drop since a CBS News poll conducted in March, before the Boston Marathon bombings.

Sixty-two percent of the public say the United States has no responsibility to do something about the fighting in Syria between government forces and antigovernment groups, while just one-quarter disagree. Likewise, 56 percent say North Korea is a threat that can be contained for now without military action, just 15 percent say the situation requires immediate American action and 21 percent say the North is not a threat at all.

Louis Brown, 50, a poll respondent from Springfield Township, Ohio, described Syria and North Korea in a follow-up interview as “political hotbeds.” In his view, “we don’t need additional loss of American lives right now.”

Instead, Mr. Brown said he thought that now was the time to “concentrate on our own backyard,” and he cited the economy as the most important problem facing the country. Mr. Brown said Congress and President Obama should “address the economic situation in the country and stop infighting.”

Many Americans agree with Mr. Brown as the economy and jobs continue to top the list of the most important problems facing the country while foreign policy issues barely register. Four in 10 Americans cite the economy and jobs as the most important problems facing the country, while only 1 percent named foreign policy.

Another poll respondent, Pat Bates, 63, of Parkville, Mo., said she would “hate to see us trot into yet another country and try to fix things when we’re not quite sure what we’re doing.” She went on to say that “we’ve certainly got enough to keep us busy here without sending our young people over somewhere again.”

The nationwide telephone survey was conducted on both land lines and cellphones with 965 adults and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. More results will be released at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday on nytimes.com.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/01/world/american-public-opposes-action-in-syria-and-north-korea.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

European Unemployment Sets Another Record

PARIS — The euro zone jobless rate rose to a record 12.1 percent in March, a sharp reminder that unemployment remains among the region’s biggest problems.

The unemployment rate in the 17-nation currency union ticked up by one-tenth of a percentage point from February, when the previous record was set, Eurostat, the statistical agency of the European Union, reported from Luxembourg. A year earlier, euro zone joblessness stood at 11 percent.

A separate report Tuesday from Eurostat showed inflation dropping sharply in the euro zone, well below the European Central Bank’s target of 2 percent a year. The annualized rate of inflation for consumer prices was just 1.2 percent in April 2013, down from March, when inflation stood at 1.7 percent.

The reports, along with other recent data suggesting that the economy is healing more slowly than many had hoped, could prompt the European Central Bank to take action at its policy meeting on Thursday. The central bank could cut its key interest-rate target, already at a record low of 0.75 percent, by a quarter point, economists say, though the impact of such a move would probably be slight, because banks remain less than eager to lend.

“Stabilizing the peripheral euro zone countries will take at least until the end of 2013,” Ralph Solveen, an economist with Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said. As a result, he said, unemployment would probably keep rising “until next spring.”

For the 27-nation European Union, the March jobless rate was unchanged, at 10.9 percent. Eurostat estimated that 26.5 million men and women were now unemployed in Europe, including 5.7 million young people.

Both the euro zone and European Union jobless figures are the highest Eurostat has reported since it began keeping the data in 1995 in the days before the euro. In comparison, the unemployment rate in the United States was 7.6 percent in March.

Six years after Wall Street’s bad bets on the United States housing market began to sink the global financial system, the European economy remains trapped in torpor with little relief in sight. Governments have tightened the screws on public finances to meet deficit targets, and companies remain extremely reticent about hiring. The euro zone’s gross domestic product is widely expected to decline for a second consecutive year in 2013.

Manufacturers are largely dependent on demand from outside Europe for growth. Carmakers, which employ about two million people in Europe, anticipate sales in the European Union this year to fall back to levels last seen in the early 1990s. In that dismal landscape, PSA Peugeot Citroën, the French automaker that ranks No. 2 in Europe behind Volkswagen, said Monday that its unions had agreed to a plan to close a plant near Paris and to reduce its French work force by more than 11,000.

While a decline in energy prices helped to push the inflation rate lower, Jennifer McKeown, an economist in London with Capital Economics, argued that the jobless problem was probably itself part of the reason for the downward pressure on prices. She said in a note that it would be “a disappointment” if the E.C.B. failed to ease rates and “announce further unconventional policies to boost bank lending.”

Two nations are staggering under depression-level jobless rates: Greece, where the European sovereign debt crisis began, had a rate of 27.2 percent in January, the latest month for which data are available; Spain had unemployment of 26.7 percent in March. Portugal was next at 17.5 percent. Germany, which has the largest economy in the European Union, was at just 5.4 percent, with only Austria, at 4.7 percent, lower. Britain’s rate stood at 7.8 percent, while France’s was at 11 percent.

Mr. Solveen forecasted that the euro zone economy would shrink by 0.2 percent this year, but he pointed to progress in some countries, including Italy and Spain, in addressing problems that he said would eventually help turn things around. Still, Spain’s “catastrophic” unemployment rate is a reminder that its burst housing bubble is still sapping the economy.

“The correction there has to go on,” he said, “because there is still a huge number of unsold homes.”

Mr. Solveen said that Germany had reduced its dependence on its euro zone neighbors, and the key to its economic growth was now tied to the global economy.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/01/business/global/european-unemployment-sets-another-record.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Travel Sites Merge, Which Some See as Boon for Consumers

The online travel search business is consolidating, as two of the biggest online travel agencies, Priceline.com and Expedia.com, buy smaller search engines.

But most travel industry analysts said they did not expect either Priceline, which is buying the airline and hotel search engine Kayak, or Expedia, which last month acquired the German hotel search site Trivago, to tamper with the basic model of search engines: to show the consumer as many options as possible.

Search results in favor of Priceline, for example, would diminish the value of Kayak, said Bjorn Hanson, divisional dean of the Tisch Center for Hospitality, Tourism and Sports Management at New York University.

He said that market conditions — including hotel occupancy rates, which are much improved over their low levels in 2009 — and not consolidation, would have more of an effect on prices. In addition, he said, after consolidation, Kayak is likely to become better known. This would bring more consumers to the site, enabling them to make better price comparisons.

The hotel industry has emerged from two dark periods, Mr. Hanson said, one that followed 9/11 and the other in the midst of the most recent recession. “The hotel industry is doing better,” he said. In 2002, on a typical night, 41 percent of hotel rooms were unoccupied, and in 2009, 45 percent of rooms were vacant. That number has now dropped to 38 percent, “a dramatic change,” Mr. Hanson said.

“The change is so dramatic,” he said, that hotels do not consider it as necessary to list their unsold rooms on the sites of online travel agencies like Priceline and Expedia.

That can be an advantage for consumers because they now deal directly with hotel companies, which have worked to draw travelers back to their Web sites and apps with loyalty programs, knowledge of guest history and price guarantees. A hotel, for instance, may promise to match the price or beat it if the traveler finds a lower price for the same room through an online travel agency or metasearch site.

Mr. Hanson said online travel agencies typically used four models for the hotel rooms they displayed: in one model, they act like a traditional brick-and-mortar travel agency, and the hotel pays the online travel agency a 5 percent commission; the second is the auction model like the one used by Priceline.com. The third is the opaque model, as on Hotwire.com, where consumers do not know what brand they are buying. The fourth is the merchant model, in which the online travel agency buys the room inventory from the hotel company, which then pays a commission ranging from 18 to as much as 38 percent to the online travel agency. The hotels aim to use the online travel agencies as little as possible, he said.

Hoteliers view the search sites as a way to bring more consumers to their sites, said Michelle Woodley, senior vice president of distribution and revenue management for the Preferred Hotel Group. “It’s two streams of booking,” Ms. Woodley said.

“Hotel companies are not going to give every channel the same price now — parity deals — that were written into the conditions of the agreement” in the past, Ms. Woodley added. There can be five different prices for the same room, she said. “So for consumers, it’s a better environment.”

The days of the rapid growth of the online travel agencies are gone. “Online travel in the U.S. is mature,” said Henry Harteveldt, a travel industry analyst at Hudson Crossing. “Growth is flattening out. There isn’t double-digit growth like in the late 1990s and early 2000s,” he said. “Online travel agencies are exploring new ways to reach more people — acquisition and investments. Kayak and Trivago will refer more business to the respective purchasers.”

In March, Expedia ranked second after TripAdvisor, with Priceline third among the top 10 online travel agencies and search sites, for the “number of unique visitors,” according to comScore, which tracks visitors to travel and other types of Web sites. In March, TripAdvisor had nearly 20.95 million visitors, followed closely by Expedia with 20.92 million, and Priceline had 17.45 million. Kayak.com Network ranked eighth with 8.94 million visitors, with Trivago Sites ranking 248th with 142,000. Online travel agencies make money through online advertising more than through transactions, Mr. Harteveldt said.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/business/travel-sites-merge-which-some-see-as-boon-for-consumers.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Blaming Europe’s Central Bank

But increasingly, people on the financially stricken island nation are focusing their anger on another institution, one that is more accustomed to praise for its handling of the euro zone crisis: the European Central Bank.

Throughout much of the euro zone’s financial crisis, the bank has faced criticism for not doing enough — not printing enough money or not buying enough bonds or not cutting interest rates fast enough. In Cyprus, though, the bank is accused of doing too much.

When the bank’s governing council meets on Thursday, the hopes of recessionary Europe are pinned to its doing something to stimulate the regional economy — even if that is only the largely symbolic step of reducing its already historically low benchmark interest rate a quarter-percentage point, to 0.5 percent.

Some hold out hope that the bank and Mario Draghi, its leader, might soon take even bolder stimulus steps — although just what remains unclear.

In coming months and years, the euro zone plan is for the central bank to play an even more central role in overseeing European banks — acting as the master supervisor and, eventually, wielding the rule book by which failing banks would be banished from the field.

All of which is why complaints from Cyprus, the latest euro zone country to sustain a banking collapse, sound like either a startling indictment or a sore loser’s excuse, depending on one’s point of view.

“The big question is, did the E.C.B. help Cyprus or did it make things worse?” asked Nicholas Papadopoulos, chairman of the Committee on Financial and Budgetary Affairs in the Cyprus Parliament. Expressing a view widely shared in the country, he said, “My opinion is that it made things worse.”

Critics in the Cypriot government that replaced the communists in February say the central bank broke its own rules by enabling Cyprus’s central bank to keep the country’s second-largest lender, Laiki Bank, on life support long after it was insolvent. That made the nation’s banking collapse worse than it might have been otherwise, critics say.

The new Cypriot president has recently exchanged harshly worded letters with Mr. Draghi. But even as Cyprus levels its criticisms, much of Europe still wants the European Central Bank to ride to the rescue.

Central bank officials declined to comment in detail for this article, but they said that the Central Bank of Cyprus had taken the lead on crisis measures.

The European Central Bank’s defenders say it is unfair to blame it for a larger policy blunder by European political leaders.

“The big mistake was not forcing negotiations in 2012 when it was obvious Cyprus was in trouble,” said Nicolas Véron, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a research organization in Brussels. “But I wouldn’t single out the E.C.B. It’s really a collective failure of European institutions.”

Still, the suggestion by a euro zone member, even crippled Cyprus, that the central bank committed serious policy missteps illustrates the hazards lurking as the bank heads further outside the realm of conventional monetary policy in hopes of keeping the euro zone intact.

As Cyprus demonstrates, the European Central Bank risks being sucked into the quagmire of local politics by measures intended to help struggling banks and prevent financial shocks. The hazard of such political entanglements, and the potential to make mistakes, might only grow as the bank begins assuming control of supervising euro zone banks in July.

Cypriot critics say the central bank acted as an enabler by acquiescing as the Central Bank of Cyprus provided low-cost financing to keep Laiki Bank afloat long after it should have been left to fail. The delay in dealing with problems at Laiki raised the cost of the bailout for taxpayers in Cyprus and the large depositors who will bear much of the cost, critics in the government say.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/business/global/blaming-europes-central-bank.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

DealBook: Alibaba Buys Stake in Sina Weibo, China’s Twitter

Jack Ma, the Alibaba chairman, said two platforms would make the mobile Internet a core part of Alibaba's strategy.Vincent Yu/Associated PressJack Ma, the Alibaba chairman, said two platforms would make the mobile Internet a core part of Alibaba’s strategy.

5:32 p.m. | Updated

The Internet giant Alibaba was once known as China’s answer to eBay. Now it is forging closer ties to the country’s counterpart to Twitter.

Alibaba agreed on Monday to buy an 18 percent stake in the Sina Corporation’s Weibo, the most popular of China’s microblogging services, for $586 million. It has the right to raise its stake to 30 percent in the future.

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The deal values Weibo at about $3.3 billion — equivalent to Sina’s entire market value as of Friday.

Alibaba and Sina also agreed to cooperate in improving ways to marry social networking with e-commerce, as microblogging services like Sina’s continue to grow in popularity. Sina Weibo said that last year it had more than 46 million daily active users, an increase of 82 percent from the period a year earlier.

That remains a fraction of Twitter’s user base, however. And a recent study of about 30,000 Sina Weibo users found that about 57 percent of the sampled accounts had no measurable activity or posts.

Alibaba continues to grow, most recently being valued by analysts at more than $55 billion. It has reshuffled its management ranks ahead of a much-anticipated initial public offering that could come as soon as this year.

The growth of social networking and its close ties to the continuing boom in mobile Internet usage have prompted a natural response: how to make money from the phenomenon. Sina and Alibaba expect their efforts to yield about $380 million in advertising and commercial revenue for the Weibo service over the next three years.

“We believe that the cooperation of our two robust platforms will bring unique and valuable services to Weibo users, as well as making the mobile Internet a core part of Alibaba’s strategy,” Jack Ma, the Alibaba chairman, said in a statement.

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/04/29/alibaba-buys-stake-in-sina-weibo-a-chinese-answer-to-twitter/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Pierre Moscovici, Finance Minister Under Fire

“France has too much debt,” Mr. Moscovici said bluntly in an interview. “We must reduce deficits to keep our sovereignty and our credibility.”

He is attacked from the right for not being firm enough in cutting public spending and for not digging hard enough to uncover the tax fraud of the disgraced former budget minister, Jérôme Cahuzac. He is attacked from the left for being too moderate, too pragmatic and too willing to cut public spending in a period of stagnation. In other words, for being insufficiently socialist.

Mr. Moscovici, 55, rejects both sets of criticism, but as the man in charge of the economy he is clearly an easy target for political sniping and ideological anger. Asked why the French are so angry and depressed, he said: “As I sometimes say, I’m not a psychoanalyst; my mother is.”

The president he serves, François Hollande, is the first Socialist president in 18 years, elected in May on promises of economic growth and job creation. But Mr. Hollande is already the most unpopular president in the Fifth Republic, and a main reason is the parlous state of the economy that Mr. Moscovici oversees.

Growth is almost nil, and unemployment is at record levels, with the number of people looking for work higher now than at any time in France’s postwar history; youth unemployment is at 24.4 percent, with 80 percent of new jobs actually temporary contracts.

At the same time, France is committed to budget deficit targets as a member of the euro zone, and even if the targets are stretched, Mr. Hollande and Mr. Moscovici know they may have to make significant cuts in spending to remain credible with European partners and the markets. In the ambiguous land between “no austerity” and spending cuts, there is much room for metaphor and euphemism.

Even as France is asking Brussels and main partner Germany for more time and space to meet its commitments, Mr. Moscovici likes to talk of a “serious budget” and “structural reforms.” He speaks of the political risks of austerity and the need for politicians to gauge the tolerance of their voters, their political allies — and, in France’s case, its small but powerful unions.

The argument against austerity, pressed by Mr. Hollande with the support of the troubled southern rim of the euro zone, is gaining ground, especially as Germany faces an election and Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives face a renewed challenge from the Social Democratic Party. Even Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister and one of austerity’s leading champions, speaks with understanding of the French dilemma.

“Of course, France must continue on the path of structural reforms,” he said on Thursday. “You cannot make changes overnight — that must happen step by step, then it will be credible. Then you can indeed be flexible on the question of in what year you have a deficit.”

Of course the centrality of France to the euro zone means that it will always get more leeway than a smaller country — especially given its overall strengths in demography, infrastructure and innovation. As Mr. Moscovici is fond of pointing out, France is the world’s fifth-largest economy and ranks fourth in attracting foreign investment. While it has problems with labor costs and declining competitiveness, “we are not the sick man of Europe,” he said angrily, accusing much of the Anglo-Saxon and German press of “French-bashing.”

Mr. Moscovici also can get annoyed when discussing the “neoliberalism” and “orthodoxy” of the technocrats of the European Commission, which sets the rules. At one point, when discussing the demands of Eurocrats to keep the annual budget deficit at or below 3 percent of gross domestic product, Mr. Moscovici burst out and said: “There is a mainstream view in the European Commission that is neoliberal, or orthodox. But I’m a socialist, a social democrat!” In France, he said, “we have elections, we have political choices, and we are defending our own way.”

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/world/europe/pierre-moscovici-finance-minister-under-fire.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

European Troubles Lower Results for VW and Fiat

Until now, Volkswagen, the German auto company, had been buffered a bit more than other auto companies doing business in Europe because of its size and strong sales in North America and China.

But its shrinking profit margins reflect both the industry’s steep sales decline in Europe as well as intense price competition in the biggest vehicle segments.

Volkswagen joins a growing roster of foreign and United States automakers that are struggling in Europe, where car sales dropped 10 percent during the first quarter, including double-digit decreases in France, Germany and Spain.

Most automakers are banking on surging sales in the United States to offset some of these losses.

And VW’s chairman, Martin Winterkorn, cautioned that the company expected little improvement any time soon in Europe.

“The coming months will be anything but easy,” Mr. Winterkorn said in a statement. “The current environment is definitely a tough challenge for the entire industry.”

VW reported on Monday that its after-tax profit fell 38 percent, to 1.95 billion euros ($2.5 billion) in the first quarter, even though revenue slipped just 1 percent, to 46.6 billion euros.

The Italian automaker Fiat also reported a drop, reporting that its net profits plunged 88 percent during the three-month period, to 31 million euros ($40 million), and that revenue fell 2 percent, to 19.76 billion euros.

Fiat’s chief executive, Sergio Marchionne, said that the combination of pricing pressure and weak demand was likely to depress profits in Europe for some time. “It is unfortunate the European market is in this state,” Mr. Marchionne said Monday in a conference call with reporters and analysts.

He added that some automakers had considered themselves immune to the downturn, but no longer. “Those who have claimed a Teflon approach are getting that coat taken off,” he said.

Last week, the American automaker Ford reported a pretax loss of $462 million in Europe, and projected a full-year loss of $2 billion in the region. And the French carmaker PSA Peugeot Citroën said it expected losses to force new labor talks to cut costs and increase competitiveness.

With the European market in such a dismal state, most auto companies are counting on surging sales in the United States to generate the bulk of their future profits.

At Volkswagen, the company’s Audi luxury brand is the bright spot in its lineup. Audi, which has posted a 16 percent sales increase in the United States this year, contributed more than two-thirds of overall profits that VW earned in the first quarter.

Fiat has been getting virtually all of its profits from its Chrysler subsidiary in the United States.

Fiat took control of Chrysler after the American company’s government bailout and bankruptcy in 2009. Since then, the Italian automaker has accumulated a 58.5 percent stake in Chrysler, and they have begun developing vehicles together.

In the first quarter, however, Chrysler’s comeback stalled somewhat, as it spent heavily on new versions of two core products, the Jeep Grand Cherokee sport utility vehicle and a heavy-duty Ram pickup truck.

Chrysler said Monday that its net income fell 65 percent during the quarter, to $166 million, and revenue dropped 6 percent, to $15.4 billion.

Yet Chrysler still managed to help Fiat post a profit. Without Chrysler’s contribution to the bottom line, Fiat said it would have lost money during the period.

Mr. Marchionne, who is also chief executive of Chrysler, said he expected the American company to reach its full-year target of $2.2 billion in net income and revenue of $72 billion or more.

He said that the coming introduction of the new Jeep Cherokee S.U.V. this summer was “crucial” to hitting those goals.

“We need to do everything we can between now and then to make it happen,” Mr. Marchionne said.

He added that given the strength of the United States market, Chrysler should regain momentum with its new models. “The onus is on us,” he said.

Analysts said that Chrysler’s performance remained Fiat’s best hedge against the turmoil in Europe.

“Who would’ve guessed five years ago when Fiat rode to the rescue of a then-bankrupt Chrysler, that Chrysler would be viewed as the savior of Fiat?” asked Jack R. Nerad, an analyst with the auto research service Kelley Blue Book.

Mr. Marchionne also updated analysts Monday on the potential for Fiat to take full ownership of Chrysler.

“I have always seen Fiat and Chrysler being one entity at some point in time,” he said. “How we get there is a story that’s going to be written.”

Fiat hopes to buy the 41.5 percent stake in Chrysler owned by a health care trust for United Automobile Workers union retirees in the United States. But Fiat and the U.A.W. trust remain far apart on a price for the shares.

A federal judge in Delaware is considering different valuations proposed for the stock, and is expected to make a ruling on a fair price this summer.

Until the court case is resolved, Mr. Marchionne said a potential Fiat-Chrysler merger was temporarily delayed.

“I remain hopeful that we can find a solution that meets their objectives and ours,” he said.

If Fiat is successful in acquiring the shares owned by the U.A.W. trust, it could consolidate its balance sheet with Chrysler. Fiat could then gain access to Chrysler’s cash reserves to bolster its product lineup in Europe and elsewhere.

Once a Fiat-Chrysler merger is completed, Mr. Marchionne said the combined company would restructure itself and issue new shares to raise capital.

Fiat shares, like most Italian companies, are currently traded on the stock exchange in Milan. But Mr. Marchionne said new shares in Fiat-Chrysler would most likely be listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

“It’s the most efficient capital market I can get my hands on,” he said.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/business/global/european-troubles-lower-results-for-vw-and-fiat.html?partner=rss&emc=rss