May 9, 2024

What We Learned About the Economy in 2021

The tension between soaring demand and pandemic-limited supply showed up in the labor market in 2021 as well. The result was that workers were in command to a degree not seen in at least two decades.

This showed up across multiple dimensions. Wages have been rising rapidly. Companies have been forced to be more creative, flexible and aggressive in attracting a work force. The rate of people quitting their jobs soared. After two decades in which employers were mostly able to have their pick of workers, the tables had turned.

And people hated it.

That’s an exaggeration, of course. The Great Resignation is real, and plenty of people have taken advantage of this moment to secure a better, more rewarding employment arrangement. But in the aggregate, people view the state of the economy as horrendous.

In a Gallup poll in early December, 67 percent of adults said the economy was getting worse. Overall economic confidence matched its lowest levels from the early days of the pandemic and was lower than it was in the very weak economy of 2010 and 2011.

Some of this is surely tied to the fact that prices are rising more quickly than average wages, which means an average worker’s purchasing power is declining. Wage gains have been highest, in percentage terms, in lower-paying industries. In effect, hourly workers have been securing raises, while middle-managers and white collar workers are, on average, losing significant ground.

Moreover, while labor shortages are empowering for many workers, they also cause their share of hassles. For every worker who quits for a higher-paying job, there are workers asked to cover the shift and a middle manager struggling to find a replacement.

People like having more agency, sure, but labor shortages have also made their lives worse in their roles as managers and consumers — and it shows in the public opinion data about the economy.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/31/upshot/economy-inflation-2021-review.html

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