Ryan Connelly, a senior analyst at DuckerFrontier, a research firm, said the revised trade pact was unlikely to have a substantial effect on the sector, either positive or negative. “At its best, it will probably prevent some of the losses that you would expect anyway as the industry gets more efficient and more automated,” he said.
In March, Brian Reinbold and Yi Wen, of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, wrote that while the U.S.M.C.A. wage requirements might benefit workers in the United States, the rules could also drive up the cost of cars produced in the three countries.
“Based on our previous analysis, U.S.M.C.A. is a solution searching for a problem in regard to auto trade,” they wrote. “It also could make North American automakers less competitive in a global marketplace.”
That could be important for some automakers that export American-made cars to China and other countries. BMW has moved some production of its popular X3 sport utility vehicle to China from its plant in Spartanburg, S.C.
Researchers at the International Monetary Fund arrived at a similar conclusion to the Fed researchers.
In April, the United States International Trade Commission published a nearly 400-page report on the potential consequences of the proposed deal, finding its effects would be mixed for the automotive industry.
Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/11/business/nafta-usmca-auto-jobs.html?emc=rss&partner=rss
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