April 27, 2024

U.S. and China Data Highlight Weakness in Global Economy

The United States trade deficit was essentially unchanged in August at $45.6 billion, its lowest level since April and $100 million narrower than a year earlier. Exports and imports both slipped by $100 million, to $177.6 billion and $233.2 billion, respectively.

The trade deficit was slightly narrower than analysts’ expectations. The level for July was revised downward from $44.8 billion.

A narrower trade deficit could lead to a slightly higher level for the gross domestic product, said Clark Yingst, the chief market analyst for the investment firm Joseph Gunnar, “but not exactly for the reasons that we’d like.” Sipping imports are a bad sign for the United States economy, since it shows weakness in consumer demand.

“In an ideal world we would like to see exports and imports growing at relatively strong rates, but with exports growing even faster than imports,” said Mr. Yingst.

Economists have also expressed concern that Europe’s slowing economy is leading to a reduction in demand for American exports. Alcoa, the aluminum producer, said its lower profit, reported earlier this week, was due in part to weak demand there.

Trade data from China for September showed that the country’s booming pace of export growth had begun to ease, as the global upheaval and a gradual rise in the value of the renminbi took their toll. The country’s trade surplus narrowed to $14.5 billion in September, from $17.8 billion in August. But the slimmer surplus was unlikely to defuse fully the criticism of American lawmakers, who argue that Beijing is keeping its currency unfairly low against the dollar.

On Tuesday, the United States Senate passed a bill that would impose tariffs on certain Chinese goods if the Treasury Department determined that China was undervaluing its currency to its advantage.

“Although Chinese imports remain close to record levels, some impact from weaker global growth was to be expected, and the fall in year-on-year growth in September suggests this is starting to happen,” Brian Jackson, an emerging markets strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong, wrote in a note to clients.

Economists are concerned that the American economy could be further damaged if this trend continues, especially if European demand remains weak.

The International Monetary Fund also warned Thursday that Asia could suffer “clear” financial and economic spillovers from continued problems. The fund forecast relatively robust growth of 6.3 percent for the region this year and 6.7 percent in 2012 on average, slightly before a previous forecast of 6.8 percent for 2011 and 6.9 percent for 2012 made in April.

The fund’s worries were tempered by a degree of confidence about Asian domestic demand cushioning the region from global upheaval.

“Domestic demand is still resilient, and it should continue to sustain activity across the region,” the I.M.F. said.

Joshua Brustein reported from New York and Bettina Wassener reported from Hong Kong.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=142f013aad044499d745c73b457cd56e

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