April 27, 2024

DealBook: Wild Market Quiets the Buzz for I.P.O.’s

Well-known offerings like Zynga, a maker of online games, may perform well for a time while the rest of the market struggles.David Paul Morris/Bloomberg NewsOfferings by well-known brands like Zynga, a maker of online games, might perform well for a time while the rest of the market struggles.

As stocks swing violently, a chill is beginning to settle on the initial public offering market.

A small number of companies have already retreated on their offering plans. WageWorks, an employee benefits provider, pushed its offering, originally scheduled for Friday, to next week and dropped its target price range by as much as 43 percent. Two real estate investment trusts, Orchid Island Capital and Eola Property Trust, have withdrawn their filings. And Old Mutual, a big South African insurance company, said on Friday that it was now unlikely to go public in the United States before the end of next year because of market conditions.

For volatility is the enemy of the I.P.O. market. The ripples could spread, affecting even larger offerings this year, including some hotly awaited Internet offerings, as well as the sales of government-owned shares in companies like the American International Group, General Motors and the lender Ally Financial.

Ally may prove to be the most difficult, with the Treasury Department and its underwriters having postponed its initial public offering in June. The former G.M. financing arm may now seek to go public in September, though that is looking unlikely given the recent market swings, according to a person briefed on the matter.

Yet A.I.G.’s chief executive, Robert H. Benmosche, professed little worry about the current market conditions’ effect on the insurer’s next stock offering. “We’re going to make that decision in November,” he said in an interview on Friday.

Still, when there are jitters in the market, offerings are vulnerable.

“Until volatility settles, we’re not going to see a lot of I.P.O. launches,” said Brian Reilly, head of United States equity capital markets at Barclays Capital, referring to the moment a company sets its price range and starts a road show to court investors.

One measure of market volatility, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX — known as Wall Street’s fear gauge — on Friday reached its highest level since May 2010. That degree of uncertainty makes it difficult for companies to price their offerings and for investors to feel confident that they can generate meaningful returns.

“The best advice for most clients is to wait for volatility to calm down,” Mr. Reilly said.

The sharp jitters in the market threaten a broad range of deals on Wall Street, including acquisitions, which can be ultrasensitive to price fluctuations in the equity markets. But the current roller coaster may be particularly damaging to the offerings market, analysts say, which is still recovering from the financial crisis, when it was virtually moribund.

Although demand for offerings in the United States has been somewhat uneven, the market has shown signs of strength. So far this year, the number of offerings is up nearly 15 percent, to 93, while proceeds have more than doubled to $28.5 billion, according to data from Renaissance Capital, a firm that advises on stock offerings.

A lot of that growth can be traced to the technology sector, which has produced some of the most highly anticipated public offerings, like the online music service Pandora Media and LinkedIn, the social network for professionals. When LinkedIn went public in May, it raised more than $350 million and its shares surged 109 percent on their first day of trading.

Prolonged and severe market turbulence could batter the offerings of even the most popular start-ups, like Groupon.Scott Olson/Getty ImagesProlonged and severe market turbulence could batter the offerings of even the most popular start-ups, like Groupon.

LinkedIn’s success was seen to be a curtain raiser to a string of even larger Internet blockbusters. The popular games maker Zynga and Groupon, a daily coupon Web site, have recently filed to go public. Facebook, the world’s largest social network, is on track to file within the next eight months, at a valuation north of $100 billion, according to people close to the matter.

These popular start-ups, which have been heavily traded on secondary markets, were largely seen as immune to market turbulence because of the feverish demand for their shares. But a prolonged severe period of volatility could eventually drag down these companies too, analysts say, forcing management and bankers to revise timelines and trim valuations.

“You can’t sit here with a high valuation, when everything else is crashing around you,” said Kathleen Smith, a principal at Renaissance. “Even Facebook may have a hard time getting its offering done at a premium.”

For now, the hope is that the economy calms down by September, when the stock offering market restarts in earnest after a traditionally slow August.

“Thank goodness it’s August,” said Horace Nash, a partner at Fenwick West, a prestigious Silicon Valley law firm. “In the medium term, it’s pretty unpredictable, but it’s not going to kill a filed transaction.”

Though Mr. Nash still believes the largest offerings exist in a silo apart from the rest of the technology sector, he says instability will most likely sway their valuations. “That would really put the sand in the gears,” he said.

David J. Abella, a portfolio manager with Rochdale Investment Management, says he is closely watching the markets and has already lowered his price expectations based on the broader market declines. He foresees a stark divide in the market, where offerings from well-known brands like Dunkin’ Donuts and Zynga perform well, but the rest of the market struggles to find its footing.

“If I’m able to get an allocation from a top-tier name, I will generally be a buyer,” he said. “In this market, you might not get the same upside as LinkedIn, but it will probably still be attractive.”

Mr. Abella says his firm will not buy shares from top tier names on the first day of trading and will be especially wary of debt-laden, private-equity-backed offerings, which he predicts will suffer in this environment.

Investor confidence will be put to the test once again next week, with 12 companies expected to go public in the final push before the late-summer lull. WageWorks is back, along with Trustwave Holdings, an enterprise software company, and HomeStreet, a modest-sized regional bank. If all go public, it will be the best showing since 2007. But few expect next week to go without a hitch.

“Some may do better than expected, but it’s gotten a lot riskier,” Mr. Abella said.

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DealBook: Pandora Shares Climb in Debut

Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesJoe Kennedy, Pandora Media’s chief executive

Shares of Pandora Media, the online music service, jumped at the market opening as investors embraced the latest Internet company to go public.

Shares of the initial public offering, priced at $16, opened at $20 and continued to rise modestly in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange. At nearly $23 a share, the company is valued at about $3.7 billion.

Like many of its peers, Pandora repeatedly defied expectations in the run-up to its I.P.O. On Tuesday evening, Pandora priced its offering several dollars above its target price range of $10 to $12. The company sold 14.7 million shares, raising $234.9 million, at a valuation of $2.6 billion. Its underwriters, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, also have the option to sell an additional 2.2 million shares.

Pandora — and the many Internet companies waiting to go public over the next 12 months — are riding a wave of optimism on the back of better-than-expected debuts for technology stocks. These young start-ups, many of which are not yet profitable, are capitalizing on the increasing demand for fast-growing consumer Internet companies — especially those with a social component.

The euphoria troubles some analysts who say it is reminiscent of the dot-com era, when investors piled into companies with flimsy business models at sky-high valuations. Although today’s crop of companies have real business models that are generating significant revenues, many are not yet profitable. Pandora, for example, is wildly popular with more than 90 million users, but it recorded a loss of $1.8 million last year. The service has never posted an annual profit.

The euphoria moved into high gear on May 19, when LinkedIn’s shares more than doubled on their first day of trading. A few days later, shares of Yandex, often described as the Google of Russia, climbed more than 55 percent on their debut.

Pandora’s first day is so far more modest, but still reflects the sector’s strength. In early June, the company had previously forecast a range of $7 to $9 per share.

Not all I.P.O.’s are prospering, however. The broader market for public offerings has been more mixed. The commodities giant Glencore, for instance, had a splashy debut in May with a $10 billion offering, but is currently trading below its offer price

“What’s interesting to me about Pandora is that it illustrates the broader trend of this year’s tech I.P.O. market,” said Ira Cohen, a managing director at Signal Hill. “The I.P.O. market is a place of the haves and have-nots.”

For Pandora, its popularity is something of a double-edged sword. It pays significant royalties to record labels to stream songs and as users spend more time on the service, the fees rack-up.

“As the volume of music we stream to listeners increases, our content acquisition expense will also increase, regardless of whether we are able to generate more revenue,” the company warned in its latest securities filing.

According to analysts, Pandora will continue to struggle with profitability until it significantly increases the number of ads it serves and improves the way those ads are targeted.

Success in that area, however, may also alienate some of its users, who use Pandora because of its lack of ads.

And there are competitors. Several technology giants, including Google, Amazon and Apple have recently expanded their digital music services. Upstarts like Spotify, a streaming music service that is popular in Europe, also threaten Pandora’s market share.

In a filing, Pandora acknowledged the looming threat posed by its competitors, which could “devote greater resources than we have available, have a more accelerated time frame for deployment and leverage their existing user base and proprietary technologies to provide products and services that our listeners and advertisers may view as superior.”

“There’s a lot of competition, especially with Spotify expected to launch in the U.S. soon,” said Richard Greenfield, an analyst with BTIG Research. “I think there will be a lot of ways to get in the car.”

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