November 15, 2024

Euro Zone Economy Shrinks, but Little Sign of Action

Europe, experts say, seems to be in policy paralysis. With Germany, the Continent’s economic heavyweight, in the grip of pre-election politicking, no big European policy moves are likely until after that country’s elections in September. Even then, it is not clear that anyone has any masterstrokes planned.

“The political situation in Europe is not conducive to making bazooka decisions,” said Gilles Moëc, an economist at Deutsche Bank in London, referring to an allusion by Henry M. Paulson Jr., a former U.S. Treasury secretary, to the need to have economic firepower in a crisis. “No one’s talking about creating any further jolts to the system.”

While Germany was able to barely sidestep a recession in the first quarter, France slid into one, according to the data Wednesday from Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical agency. The French president, François Hollande, marked the occasion at a news conference in Brussels by indicating that his country should not be singled out for criticism.

“Are we an isolated case?” Mr. Hollande said of France. “No, because the recession in Europe and particularly in the euro zone is greater.” But he offered no prescriptions for growth other than to say, “If Europe, member states and France organize ourselves to promote growth, then we can return to the hope of a better future.”

Organizing to promote growth, though, seems to be the mission that has long eluded the Union, whose listlessness contrasts with the performance of other major global economies.

Two weeks ago, the European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate target to a record low in a largely symbolic move, but gave no hint of whether it had more in store. Economists say there is a limit to what monetary policy can accomplish, in any case.

And the people perhaps most able to propose action — E.U. finance ministers — just spent two days in Brussels arguing over tax havens and debating a banking union, which is aimed at avoiding future disasters, not reviving growth.

“We don’t see policy makers lifting a finger anywhere in Europe,” Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York, said Wednesday. “But this is a depression, rather than a cyclical downturn, and there must be a policy response if things are going to get better.”

Little wonder the European public is losing confidence in the region, as the results of a poll by the Pew research organization showed Monday.

The 17-nation euro zone economy contracted 0.2 percent in the first quarter from the last three months of 2012, Eurostat reported Wednesday. That was less than the 0.6 percent decline recorded in the fourth quarter, but more than economists’ expectations of a 0.1 percent fall.

France’s slip into recession was the result of a second consecutive quarterly contraction of 0.2 percent. (At least two consecutive quarters of a shrinking economy is the widely accepted definition of recession.) Germany essentially marked time, with growth of 0.1 percent. The economy of the overall Union, made up of 27 nations, shrank 0.1 percent.

Eurostat said it was the first time the euro zone had contracted for six straight quarters since the creation of the single currency in 1999.

In annualized terms, the euro zone economy contracted about 0.8 percent in the first quarter. That is in stark contrast to the current2.5 percent annual growth rate in the world’s largest economy, the United States. China, with the second-biggest economy, reported in April first-quarter growth of 7.7 percent.

Japan, with the third-largest economy, is expected to post annualized growth of about 2.8 percent when it reports its first-quarter numbers on Thursday.

Europe’s economic doldrums are by no means the region’s problem alone. Despite its troubles, the Union remains the world’s single largest market, which means its weakness is retarding growth in the rest of the world.

Moody’s Investors Service warned in a report Wednesday that the weakness in the euro zone, combined with the mandatory budget cuts in the United States, would weigh on the world economy. Those factors will help limit growth in the Group of 20 industrial nations to just 1.2 percent this year, Moody’s said.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/16/business/global/germany-france-economic-data.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

European Deficits Are Down; National Debt Is Up

PARIS — An austerity push in Europe helped to reduce government budget deficits in 2012 for a fourth consecutive year, official data showed on Monday, but in relation to gross domestic product, national debt burdens grew.

Outlays exceeded revenue by 3.7 percent in the 17-nation euro zone, down from 4.2 percent in 2011, Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical agency, reported from Luxembourg. For all 27 nations of the union, the government deficit fell to 4 percent from 4.4 percent.

Euro zone debt measured as a percentage of gross domestic product rose to 90.6 percent, from 87.3 percent in 2011. For the union, debt rose to 85.3 percent of G.D.P. from 82.5 percent a year earlier.

Ben May, an economist in London with Capital Economics, noted that the numbers appeared impressive, comparing favorably with those of the United States and Britain, where government deficits last year exceeded 8 percent of G.D.P., and with Japan, where the deficit was more than 10 percent.

“But the fact that most economies’ deficits have fallen by less than expected and that the consolidation has coincided with deeper-than-anticipated recessions confirms that the costs have been large,” Mr. May wrote. He noted that Germany, which last year posted a small budget surplus, accounted for about 60 percent of the improvement.

France’s deficit last year, at 4.8 percent of G.D.P., fell short of President François Hollande’s target of 4.5 percent. Spain posted a budget deficit of 10.6 percent, worse than the 10.2 percent the European Commission had forecast. Both countries face a struggle to meet their financial targets for 2013, economists say.

Greece, the member of the European Union most battered by the crisis, posted a deficit of 10 percent of G.D.P., up from 9.5 percent a year earlier. Its debt fell to 157 percent of G.D.P. from 170 percent after a bailout in which bondholders were forced to write off part of their Greek holdings.

Austerity took hold in Europe when, after the credit bubble collapsed, speculative attacks began on the sovereign debt of euro members like Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus. Led by Germany, governments responded with a reaffirmed commitment to hold their deficits to a maximum of 3 percent of G.D.P. and debts to no more than 60 percent.

Fiscal hawks say that deficit spending is merely a means of pushing the cost of politically unpopular action onto future generations. But austerity, whereby government spending is cut and taxes increased, reduces demand in the overall economy and drives up unemployment, at least in the short term.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/23/business/global/eu-data-shows-reduced-deficits-but-higher-debt-burdens.html?partner=rss&emc=rss