April 27, 2024

European Deficits Are Down; National Debt Is Up

PARIS — An austerity push in Europe helped to reduce government budget deficits in 2012 for a fourth consecutive year, official data showed on Monday, but in relation to gross domestic product, national debt burdens grew.

Outlays exceeded revenue by 3.7 percent in the 17-nation euro zone, down from 4.2 percent in 2011, Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical agency, reported from Luxembourg. For all 27 nations of the union, the government deficit fell to 4 percent from 4.4 percent.

Euro zone debt measured as a percentage of gross domestic product rose to 90.6 percent, from 87.3 percent in 2011. For the union, debt rose to 85.3 percent of G.D.P. from 82.5 percent a year earlier.

Ben May, an economist in London with Capital Economics, noted that the numbers appeared impressive, comparing favorably with those of the United States and Britain, where government deficits last year exceeded 8 percent of G.D.P., and with Japan, where the deficit was more than 10 percent.

“But the fact that most economies’ deficits have fallen by less than expected and that the consolidation has coincided with deeper-than-anticipated recessions confirms that the costs have been large,” Mr. May wrote. He noted that Germany, which last year posted a small budget surplus, accounted for about 60 percent of the improvement.

France’s deficit last year, at 4.8 percent of G.D.P., fell short of President François Hollande’s target of 4.5 percent. Spain posted a budget deficit of 10.6 percent, worse than the 10.2 percent the European Commission had forecast. Both countries face a struggle to meet their financial targets for 2013, economists say.

Greece, the member of the European Union most battered by the crisis, posted a deficit of 10 percent of G.D.P., up from 9.5 percent a year earlier. Its debt fell to 157 percent of G.D.P. from 170 percent after a bailout in which bondholders were forced to write off part of their Greek holdings.

Austerity took hold in Europe when, after the credit bubble collapsed, speculative attacks began on the sovereign debt of euro members like Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus. Led by Germany, governments responded with a reaffirmed commitment to hold their deficits to a maximum of 3 percent of G.D.P. and debts to no more than 60 percent.

Fiscal hawks say that deficit spending is merely a means of pushing the cost of politically unpopular action onto future generations. But austerity, whereby government spending is cut and taxes increased, reduces demand in the overall economy and drives up unemployment, at least in the short term.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/23/business/global/eu-data-shows-reduced-deficits-but-higher-debt-burdens.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Stocks Settle After Rally

Stocks in the United States eased back on Friday from their biggest monthly rally in decades, ending relatively flat as the euphoria over Europe’s plan to address its sovereign debt crisis evaporated.

For the week, the three main indexes on Wall Street closed more than 3 percent higher, however, lifted mostly by the surge on Thursday that followed the announcement of the latest European rescue plan. The broader market in the United States, as measured by the Standard Poor’s 500 stock index, moved back into positive territory for the year.

But on Friday, some of the lustre started to wear off as analysts focused on lingering doubts about whether the European plan would restore growth or bring long-term solutions to the sovereign debt problems in the countries that share the euro.

“The enthusiasm is fading,” Guy LeBas, a strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, said in a market commentary.

The ratings agency Fitch said that progress needed to be demonstrated in several areas: achieving a broad-based economic recovery in the euro zone, reducing government budget deficits, and stabilizing and then reducing government debt ratios. Otherwise, it added, financial market volatility and downward pressure on sovereign ratings would continue.

At 4 p.m. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 0.18 percent, and the S.P. was up 0.04 percent. The Nasdaq was down 0.05 percent.

The Euro Stoxx 50 index of euro zone blue chips closed down 0.6 percent, while markets in Britain and Paris were also slightly lower. Germany’s DAX was up 0.13 percent.

While some trading this week in the United States was inspired by corporate earnings, reports of mergers and economic data, the financial markets were mostly focused on the prospects for some kind of agreement on a way to resolve Europe’s debt problems.

Those hopes helped stocks to rise on Monday, but on Tuesday they sank after another jolt from the European Union: the abrupt cancellation of a meeting of finance ministers that was meant to precede the summit meeting that eventually resulted in the final plan.

Stocks rose again on Wednesday and then powered higher on Thursday around the world following the marathon summit meeting in Brussels.

“There is not enough detail around what is going on in Europe and until you get more clarification, you will probably get some days where you will see swings like this,” said Laura LaRosa, the director of fixed income at the investment and wealth management firm Glenmede in Philadelphia.

Still, the S.P. 500 was up 13.58 percent so far this month, its highest monthly gain since October 1974, when it rose 16.3 percent in the month.

Ross Junge, the chief investment officer for fixed income, at Aviva Investors North America, said the combination of modestly improving economic data recently for the United States, and lower euro zone risks contributed to a “modestly positive” outlook for the credit markets.

“The key impacts from the announcement are investors’ increased confidence that the threat of a near-term systemic financial crisis will be avoided and the potential spillover risks to the U.S. economy and financial institutions should be reduced,” Mr. Junge said in a market commentary. “However, there will likely be additional bumps along the way and therefore we believe the markets will remain volatile.”

Ms. LaRosa predicted the price on the benchmark bond would rise slightly, as the market remained unsteady.

The United States 10-year Treasury bond yield was 2.31 percent, down from 2.39 percent on Thursday.Asian stocks closed higher on Friday.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=561073eaaf05afa275a0bc44f3a48bcd