December 22, 2024

Industrial Production Lifts European Economy

Industrial production in the 17-nation currency zone rose 0.7 percent in June from May, Eurostat, the statistical agency of the European Union, reported from Luxembourg. The agency also revised down the size of the decline in May, to 0.2 percent, rather than the 0.3 percent previously reported.

The data came a day before Eurostat is scheduled to release its first estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product, and expectations of good news were supported by the results of a survey that showed growing confidence in Germany. The ZEW institute, an economic research organization based in Mannheim, said its economic sentiment indicator had risen to 42.0 points, up by 5.7 points from July, and well above its historical average of 23.7 points.

“The euro zone’s recession ended when the snow melted last Easter,” Christian Schulz, an economist at Berenberg Bank in London, wrote in a research note. Having contracted for six straight quarters, he said, the euro zone economy “probably expanded modestly” in the April-June quarter “and will gain further momentum in the second half of the year.”

Ben May, an economist in London with Capital Economics, said the data Tuesday — as well as a small rebound in construction — suggested that the G.D.P. grew 0.2 percent in the second quarter, following a 0.3 percent quarterly decline in the first three months of the year.

Mr. Schulz credited the European Central Bank’s monetary policy, as well as the fading impact of austerity measures. He projected a 0.3 percent expansion in third-quarter G.D.P., followed by 0.4 percent growth in the last quarter.

Even with second-half growth, Eurostat has estimated that the euro zone economy will contract slightly for all of 2013 before expanding 1.2 percent next year.

Still, there is little to celebrate. There are more than 26 million Europeans who cannot find work, and the jobless rate in countries like Greece and Spain is well over 20 percent. Economists do not expect hard-hit countries to bounce back fully for several years.

Growth in Europe is still likely to lag behind that of other developed nations like the United States and Japan, as well as rising giants like China.

June marked the fifth month of the last seven in which industrial production has risen, with the data released Tuesday confirming the findings of a survey last month of European purchasing managers.

Production of consumer durables rose by 4.9 percent in June, while output of capital goods rose by 2.5 percent. Eurostat did not break down the data by product, but consumer durables generally include things like appliances, furniture and cars.

Industrial output in Germany, the largest euro zone economy, rose a strong 2.5 percent in June from May, but France, the No. 2 economy, posted a 1.5 percent decline.

For the European Union as a whole, Eurostat reported a 0.9 percent increase in June production. From a year earlier, industrial production grew 0.3 percent in the euro zone, and 0.4 percent in the overall European Union.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/14/business/global/industrial-production-lifts-european-economy.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

German Central Bank Cuts Country’s Growth Forecast

Considering “the difficult economic situation in some euro-area countries and widespread uncertainty, economic growth will be lower than previously assumed,” the Bundesbank said.

Germany’s gross domestic product is likely to expand by only 0.4 percent next year, the bank said, down from its June forecast for 1.6 percent growth.

The bank did sound an optimistic note, saying that G.D.P. stood to rise by 1.9 percent in 2014 “if the euro-area banking and sovereign debt crisis does not escalate further and uncertainty among investors and consumers gradually subsides.”

Reinforcing the Bundesbank’s pessimism, a report Friday from the Economy Ministry in Berlin indicated that industrial production at German factories tumbled by 2.6 percent in October from September, and 3.7 percent from a year earlier.

“The German decoupling from the rest of the euro zone has come to an end,” Carsten Brzeski, an economist in Brussels with the commercial bank ING, wrote in a research note. “Strong trading ties with non-Eurozone countries had shielded the economy against the euro crisis. Now, with the global economic cooling in the second half of the year, this immunity is quickly fading away. The thinning out of order books throughout the year is finally feeding through to the real economy.”

The euro zone as a whole is already in recession, with the currency bloc’s G.D.P. falling in the third quarter by 0.1 percent from the April-June period, Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, said Thursday. That was a second consecutive quarterly decline — the textbook definition of the onset of a recession.

Despite the current malaise, “the sound underlying health of the German economy suggests that it will overcome the temporary lull without major damage to the employment, in particular,” the Bundesbank president, Jens Weidmann, said in a statement.

Germany’s unemployment rate was 5.4 percent in October, according to Eurostat. That was well below the euro zone rate for that month of 11.7 percent, a record.

And yet, Mr. Weidmann issued a warning Friday: “The balance of risks is on the downside. If global economic growth falls short of expectations or the debt crisis intensifies in some countries, growth will probably fall below the baseline assumption.”

Recent data have indicated that even with a calming of markets after long months of crisis, Europe remains in a rut. Eurostat said Wednesday that euro zone retail sales fell 1.2 percent in October from September, a sign that the limping job market is holding back economic activity.

The Bundesbank forecast came a day after the European Central Bank offered a much gloomier outlook for the 17-nation euro zone. The E.C.B. president, Mario Draghi, said the bank now expected 2013 growth of no more than 0.3 percent, weaker than its previous forecast for 0.5 percent growth.


Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/08/business/global/german-central-bank-cuts-countrys-growth-forecast.html?partner=rss&emc=rss