November 16, 2024

Iceland Voters Oust Government

Election officials announced Sunday afternoon that with all the votes counted from Saturday’s election, the two largest center-right parties — the Independence Party and the Progressive Party — had won at least 38 of the 63 seats in Parliament, enough to form a coalition government with a comfortable majority. Together, they won just over half the votes cast.

The two parties capitalized on unhappiness with crippling levels of personal debt that have left many homeowners owing more on their mortgages than they originally borrowed. The parties promised to forgive or renegotiate such loans and to put an end to four years of austerity by lowering taxes, ending capital controls and stimulating foreign investment.

“We are offering a different road, a road to growth, protecting social security, better welfare and job creation,” Bjarni Benediktsson, the leader of the Independence Party, said after the vote.

The Independence Party, which was the dominant force in Icelandic politics for decades, performed worse than usual in the election, but the Progressives made extensive gains, especially among voters in rural areas. Even so, the Independence Party is likely to lead a new center-right government.

Voters turned against a coalition, led by the Social Democrats, that has governed the country for the last four years, even though, in a world of troubled economies, Iceland stands out as a relative success story. Its economy grew last year, unemployment is now below 5 percent — down from a high of 10 percent during the crisis — and inflation, which peaked at about 17 percent, is now closer to 4 percent a year.

But the ruling coalition cut spending and raised taxes, and although it tried to tackle the personal debt problem, it did not do enough to reassure Icelanders who disastrously took out loans in foreign currencies or that were indexed to inflation, said Silja Omarsdottir, a professor of political science at the University of Iceland. Professor Omarsdottir said in an interview that the government’s two big initiatives — rewriting Iceland’s Constitution and applying to join the European Union — failed to seize the popular imagination.

“They completely lost control of the discourse,” she said. “They were not getting their message across. People said: ‘You’re not doing enough. You’ve put all this effort into the Constitution, which we don’t care about, and spent so much money on the E.U. application, which we don’t care about.’ ”

The center-right parties have questioned whether Iceland ought to go ahead with the application to the European Union. The prospect of membership seemed more attractive when Europe looked stable, but the Continent is now mired in its own crisis. The Progressives and Independents have said the negotiations should wait until the country holds a referendum on whether the talks should continue.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/29/world/europe/iceland-voters-oust-government.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Opinion: Climate Change: Lessons From Ronald Reagan

A crucial decision during Ronald Reagan’s second term suggests that the answer may well be yes. The Reagan administration was generally skeptical about costly environmental rules, but with respect to protection of the ozone layer, Reagan was an environmentalist hero. Under his leadership, the United States became the prime mover behind the Montreal Protocol, which required the phasing out of ozone-depleting chemicals.

There is a real irony here. Republicans and conservatives had ridiculed scientists who expressed concern about the destruction of the ozone layer. How did Ronald Reagan, of all people, come to favor aggressive regulatory steps and lead the world toward a strong and historic international agreement?

A large part of the answer lies in a tool disliked by many progressives but embraced by Reagan (and Mr. Obama): cost-benefit analysis. Reagan’s economists found that the costs of phasing out ozone-depleting chemicals were a lot lower than the costs of not doing so — largely measured in terms of avoiding cancers that would otherwise occur. Presented with that analysis, Reagan decided that the issue was pretty clear.

Much the same can be said about climate change. Recent reports suggest that the economic cost of Hurricane Sandy could reach $50 billion and that in the current quarter, the hurricane could remove as much as half a percentage point from the nation’s economic growth. The cost of that single hurricane may well be more than five times greater than that of a usual full year’s worth of the most expensive regulations, which ordinarily cost well under $10 billion annually. True, scientists cannot attribute any particular hurricane to greenhouse gas emissions, but climate change is increasing the risk of costly harm from hurricanes and other natural disasters. Economists of diverse viewpoints concur that if the international community entered into a sensible agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the economic benefits would greatly outweigh the costs.

Skeptics have rightly observed that even aggressive regulatory steps by the United States cannot stop climate change. Greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere for decades, and many nations, especially in the developing world, are contributing growing levels of emissions. For this reason, the unilateral actions of any country will not do what must be done to reduce anticipated warming and the resulting harms. Nonetheless, cost-effective reductions from the United States would help, both in themselves and because they should spur technological changes and regulatory initiatives from other nations.

For the United States, some of the best recent steps serve to save money, promote energy security and reduce air pollution. A good model is provided by rules from the Department of Transportation and the Environmental Protection Agency, widely supported by the automobile industry, which will increase the fuel economy of cars to more than 54 miles per gallon by 2025.

The fuel economy rules will eventually save consumers more than $1.7 trillion, cut United States oil consumption by 12 billion barrels and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by six billion metric tons — more than the total amount of carbon dioxide emitted by the United States in 2010. The monetary benefits of these rules exceed the monetary costs by billions of dollars annually.

In a similar vein, recent rules from the Department of Energy are requiring greater energy efficiency from appliances like refrigerators, washing machines and small motors. For these rules as well, the monetary benefits dwarf the costs, and they include large savings to consumers as well as pollution reductions. There is a lot more to achieve in the area of energy efficiency, especially as technologies advance and continue to transform the once-impossible into the eminently doable.

The electricity sector is responsible for more than a third of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. In this domain, any regulations must be carefully devised, as they were in the case of fuel economy, to ensure that they do not impose unjustified costs, especially in an economically difficult period. But just as in that case, it should be possible to work with affected companies to identify flexible and cost-conscious approaches, producing reductions while minimizing regulatory burdens.

As in the case of the Montreal Protocol, an effective response to climate change requires many nations to act. China is the biggest greenhouse gas emitter on the planet, and it must become a leader in international negotiations, not an obstacle. But smart initiatives from the United States may well be an indispensable precondition for international efforts.

For those who seek to reduce the risks associated with climate change, it is ironic but true that the best precedent comes from a conservative icon. The big question now is whether today’s Republicans will follow Reagan’s example.

Cass R. Sunstein is a professor at Harvard Law School and a former administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/11/opinion/sunday/climate-change-lessons-from-ronald-reagan.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economix: A Time for Radical Centrists

Today's Economist

Edward L. Glaeser is an economics professor at Harvard and the author of “Triumph of the City.”

It has been a bad decade for the gross federal debt, which has ballooned to 93.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2010 from 56.4 percent in 2001. Wars and recession have taken their toll, and last week Standard Poor’s warned that the United States was in danger of losing its AAA rating.

Is it any wonder that 70 percent of Americans think the country is on the wrong track?

Our best hope is that the collision between the Tea Party and the Obama administration will explode into some serious centrism. Just as the strange cocktail of Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich produced welfare reform in 1996 and a significant decline in the gross debt, to 57 percent of G.D.P. from 67 percent, the political conflict between President Obama and the Republican-controlled House seems to have created some fiscal seriousness from both parties.

Political energy rarely comes from middle. It’s easy to understand why millions of Americans could get passionate about the more generous, more just country offered by progressives from Theodore Roosevelt onward. It’s also easy to understand the passionate desire for freedom that inspired the original Tea Party and its current incarnation.

But currently, our nation needs something that doesn’t conjure a crowd so readily: common sense. We need the spirit of nation-building centrists, like Washington and Eisenhower. We need the middle way described in the Bowles-Simpson budget plan, but that middle way needs to tear off the green-eyeshade approach to budgeting and wrap itself in red, white and blue, for it is America’s best hope.

Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have asked the American public to sacrifice much lately. We’ve fought wars without raising taxes and fought recession by doling out public funds. In both cases, the decisions were understandable, but the debt won’t come under control without sacrifices all around.

The left must be willing to restrain its appetite for vast entitlement spending. Social Security and Medicare, along with the military, are the elephants in the budget, and they all need to lose a little weight. Cutting Social Security spending is relatively straightforward – we only need to increase retirement ages.

Cutting Medicare and Medicaid is the hard part.

Representative Paul D. Ryan, Republican of Wisconsin and chairman of the House Budget Committee, has proposed an innovative voucher-type plan for Medicare. Opponents of the Ryan plan assert that recent history shows that a market-based system won’t cut costs – but we haven’t actually been living in a truly private system.

We now have a system with private providers who face incentives to maximize profits and a relatively unlimited public willingness to pay. Our current mixed system is certainly no true market system, and it is practically guaranteed to lead to rising costs.

The Ryan system can cap costs by limiting public payments, but it is tough medicine. It cannot guarantee to deliver decent health care for every older American, especially in geographic areas where the number of health-care providers is likely to remain low. It will pass costs along to families, which will challenge many middle-income Americans.

Republicans are going to need to be more generous, and Democrats will need to accept that some medical care is just too expensive for taxpayers to cover. Welfare reform in 1996 provides a model of the type of bipartisan effort we need in health care.

The right must compromise on tax increases. I like low taxes as much as the next taxpayer, but America won’t find fiscal responsibility without more revenues. Republicans can’t expect the Democrats to compromise on entitlements unless they are willing to compromise on taxes.

The G.O.P. is itself responsible for some of the government’s most expensive undertakings, like our wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and it should accept some higher taxes to pay for those wars.

The most politically palatable and economically sensible way to get more tax revenues would be a widespread tax overhaul, along the model of the bipartisan Tax Reform Act of 1986. Wholesale reform would provide a great opportunity to rethink aspects of the tax code, like the home-mortgage-interest deduction, that reduce revenues and distort behavior.

The Bowles-Simpson budget plan sensibly argued for widening the tax base while keeping the marginal tax rate as low as possible.

Congress also needs to suffer so that less government spending will go further. It must adopt a more technocratic, less political, approach to budgeting. Earmarks provide particularly egregious examples of federal expenditures with high costs relative to benefits, and they certainly need to go, but Congress should tie its own hands even tighter.

This would be a great time for Congress to embrace the principle that spending and regulations need to pass through a cost-benefit analysis gantlet that rigorously analyzes every Congressional action. This means giving the Congressional Budget Office more resources – but that is money well spent.

Budget-cutting Republicans should rush to institutionalize self-binding spending constraints now to limit future sessions of Congress. My preference would be both to expand the existing C.B.O. and create a shadow C.B.O., with a director appointed by the minority party and empowered to critique the reports of the main budget office.

We also need more scrutiny of discretionary military spending. Cost-benefit analysis is harder in national security, but even in that area, there have been complaints for decades that legislators have pushed pet military projects that yielded relatively low returns.

Given the vast size of our military budget, Congress needs better independent evaluation that raises red flags whenever new spending seems wasteful.

Both Democrats and Republicans have made choices over the last decade that have significantly expanded our national debt. Each of those choices may have been understandable after an awful attack on American soil or a terrible recession, but now we have to pay for those choices.

This is no time for liberal or conservative extremism – we need some radical centrists ready to fight for fiscal responsibility and more cost-effective public spending.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=ec3d71669f7a6fb71cce233739c361cd