April 28, 2024

Pro-Inflation Policies Show Signs of Helping the Japanese Economy

But in the last few months, the nation’s new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has pushed policy makers and other officials to take bold steps to revive one of the world’s largest economies. Their handiwork was evident on Thursday when the Japanese yen hit 100 to the dollar for the first time in four years.

Normally a weakening exchange rate might be taken as a sign of decline. The yen has fallen nearly 14 percent against the dollar this year, and no currency has fallen more except the Venezuelan bolívar. But in Japan’s case, it is a sign that the policies put in place by Mr. Abe and Haruhiko Kuroda, chairman of the Bank of Japan, are starting to work. A weaker yen makes Japanese exports more competitive around the world.

The most immediate impact of the weaker yen has been the boost in profits of the major exporters. This week, the Toyota Motor Corporation reported net income in the last 12 months jumped threefold, and Sony produced an annual profit for the first time in five years. Both companies forecast further profit increases largely because of the weaker yen.

Perhaps more important, particularly for the citizens of Japan who have suffered from a long period of falling wages and prices, the yen’s move is expected to kindle inflation in the once moribund economy.

Bank of Japan has moved aggressively to reinvigorate the economy and fight deflation. Last month, the central bank announced a decisive break with its earlier policies. Instead of focusing on keeping overnight interest rates close to zero — which seemed to be having little effect in reviving growth — the central bank aimed to double the amount of money in circulation, seeking to produce annual inflation of about 2 percent.

“This is new territory for the Bank of Japan, and the market is responding to that,” said Aroop Chatterjee, foreign exchange strategist at Barclays Capital in New York. “The Bank of Japan announced very strong monetary policy easing at the start of April.”

However, he said the more immediate trigger for the rate to cross Thursday’s threshold was signs of strength in the United States economy.

Amari Akira, Japan’s economic revitalization minister, quickly focused attention away from Japan’s role in weakening its own currency, in a bid to stave off accusations that Japan was manipulating the yen to bolster its exports. Rather, he said the dollar’s strength reflected investors’ hopes for an economic comeback in the United States.

“It’s the dollar that’s in demand because economic recovery in America is gathering steam,” Mr. Amari said at a morning news conference.

The efforts by the Bank of Japan to continue to flood the economy with liquidity is likely to keep downward pressure on the yen in the coming months. The central bank is following an asset purchase program to inflate the economy by aggressively buying longer-term bonds and doubling its government bond holdings in two years.

By mid-morning in Tokyo on Friday, the dollar was trading at 101.09 yen.

Japanese officials say the policy does not overtly pursue a lower yen rate, which could raise tensions with other exporting nations like the United States. But a weaker yen is a welcome development in some ways.

The depreciation of the yen may be a step in the right direction as the authorities try to stimulate some growth. However, Japan still faces many stiff challenges until it breaks out of its period of deflation. It has an aging and shrinking population and cumbersome regulations that make the economy inefficient.

As Mr. Abe has tried to put a new focus on reviving the economy, he has also fought with the central bank’s former leaders over setting the 2 percent inflation goal. Mr. Abe’s pressure in the end led to the resignation of the bank’s previous governor, the moderate Masaaki Shirakawa. His departure led to the appointment of Mr. Kuroda, who shares Mr. Abe’s economic philosophy.

Hiroko Tabuchi reported from Tokyo and Graham Bowley from New York.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/10/business/dollar-breaches-100-yen.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Banks Repay 137 Billion Euros to E.C.B.

The ECB made over 1 trillion euros of ultra-cheap three-year loans to banks in twin lending operations in December 2011 and February 2012 – a move ECB President Mario Draghi said had “avoided a major, major credit crunch”.

The euro zone’s central bank said on Friday that 278 banks would repay a total 137.2 billion euros of the December loans at the earliest opportunity on January 30, although it did not name them. A total of 523 banks tapped the first of the two long-term loans, known as LTROs, just over a year ago.

German debt prices fell and banking stocks and the euro rose on news of the early repayment, which exceeded the 100 billion euros forecast in a Reuters poll of traders. Banks can repay the money early on a voluntary basis weekly from now on. Repayment of the second LTRO starts on February 27.

“This exceeded expectations, I expect the pace to slow down considerably in the next week,” said Nordea analyst Jan von Gerich. “Quite a few stronger banks paid back as soon as possible, whereas weaker banks took money in the second LTRO.

“I don’t think that repayments will reach a level where overnight interest rates will start to move up,” he added.

The large early repayment will be welcome news to some ECB policymakers, who were concerned about the increased risks the central bank carried on its balance sheet with the loans.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday: “It will be important for Europe as well that the ample liquidity that was given out to banks last year is collected back again.

Banks generally borrowed cash for three reasons: as an insurance policy in case the euro zone crisis worsened and left them short of liquidity; as a “carry trade” to finance purchases of higher yielding government bonds; or to fund their loan books if they were struggling to access cheap funding.

Spanish and Italian banks were among those which ploughed the money into their own countries’ sovereign bonds, yields on which were then at record highs but have since tumbled as a result of the ECB’s loans and its September bond-buying pledge.

They were seen as less likely to pay back the cash at the earliest opportunity, preferring instead to keep holding bonds on which they are likely to have made big profits as the euro zone crisis has eased.

STIGMA RISK

Major banks who took the loans as an insurance policy are most likely to repay early. Paying back is a badge of honour for banks anxious to impress investors and rating agencies and distance themselves from more cash-strapped rivals.

Some, however, may risk overstretching themselves in their eagerness to do this. There is also concern that early repayment could highlight a two-tier system and see stigma returning to banks who not choose early repayment, bankers said.

“Circumstances have changed,” said Chris Wheeler, analyst at Mediobanca Securities. “Banks have shrunk their balance sheets, and at the time they took the cash for many it was a belt-and-braces approach to make sure they had a buffer in place. Now they don’t need it.

“We possibly have a situation now where it’s more of a stigma than it was to be holding the money.”

Benoit Coeure, in charge of market operations on the ECB Executive Board, sought to allay such concerns last Friday by playing down the chance of banks repaying a massive chunk of their LTRO cash this month.

Coeure also said excess liquidity in the euro zone remained very high. Reuters calculations show there is around 583 billion euros more money in the market than is required for it to operate effectively.

“It is important to keep in mind that there is still plenty of excess liquidity out there,” said Frank Oland Hansen, economist at Danske Bank. “Short rates are going higher, but it is still quite a moderate reaction.”

(Additional reporting by Eva Kuehnen and Sakari Suoninen in Frankfurt and Steve Slater in London; Editing by Mike Peacock and Catherine Evans)

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2013/01/25/business/25reuters-ecb-banks-cash.html?partner=rss&emc=rss