May 8, 2024

In Libya, Unrest Brings Oil Industry to Standstill

Protests and strikes at several large export terminals and oil fields have throttled Libya’s daily oil production to one-tenth its capacity in recent days, jeopardizing the national economy and tightening world oil supplies at a time when unrest is spreading in the Middle East.

Prime Minister Ali Zeidan announced Wednesday that his government had issued arrest warrants for the strike leaders, setting up a potentially critical showdown.

“I won’t let anyone hold Libya and its resources hostage to these groups for long,” Mr. Zeidan told reporters in Libya’s capital, Tripoli, as he announced the arrest warrants. But oil and political analysts expressed doubt that he could enforce his threat since the national military and police forces remain largely impotent.

The crisis began last month when armed groups seized the country’s major oil export terminals, claiming that the national oil company had engaged in corrupt sales. They also demanded autonomy for the eastern region where the rebellion against the Qaddafi government had been strongest. The protests have since moved west, carried out mainly by guards of several oil fields and pipelines seeking higher payments from the government.

As the western protests have grown, local utilities have been forced to cut back power generation, which has caused blackouts. The western protests are backed by the heavily armed Zintan militia, which is based in a western mountain town and has long flexed its muscles to gain influence over the government and nascent security forces.

The Parliament agreed last week to a 20 percent wage increase for civil servants, including the oil security guards. It has also appointed a crisis committee to go from village to village to negotiate with local governing councils allied with the militias.

David L. Goldwyn, the State Department coordinator for international energy affairs in the first Obama administration, characterized the government’s efforts as “a fight-and-talk strategy.”

“The challenge for Zeidan,” Mr. Goldwyn said, “is that it will be difficult to muster the force that will be necessary to make these arrests when some of the militias he would rely on are allied with the strikers.”

Oil, the mainstay of Libya’s economy, has in recent years accounted for 95 percent of the country’s export earnings and 75 percent of government revenues. The government estimates that the country is now losing roughly $130 million a day in oil revenues.

While experts say the government should have six months of reserves to keep the state apparatus functioning, international oil executives are watching developments carefully to see if Tripoli can regain control of the country and ensure security for foreign investment.

“Libya is grinding to a halt,” said Badr J. Jafar, president of Crescent Petroleum, an oil and gas company based in the United Arab Emirates that has had conversations with the Libyan government over investing there. “As with most of the Arab Spring countries, the optimism was short-lived.”

The falling Libyan oil output — which under normal circumstances would represent roughly 2 percent of global supplies — comes at a bad time. Unrest in Syria and Egypt potentially threatens to spread more widely through oil-producing regions of the Middle East, especially Iraq. Persistent attacks on a major pipeline in northern Iraq have already interrupted as much as 150,000 barrels a day of production in recent weeks.

Global oil prices, which have risen moderately over the past month, would probably have climbed much higher had Saudi Arabia not increased its production to the highest level in 32 years to compensate for the lost Libyan crude, oil experts say. Smaller OPEC producers, including Ecuador, Kuwait, Iran and the United Arab Emirates, have also increased production, while production in the United States continues to surge because of a frenzy of shale drilling.

Before the NATO-backed insurrection against the Qaddafi government, Libya produced more than 1.5 million barrels of high-quality crude oil a day, mostly selling to Europe and Asia. Oil production and exports came to a halt during the 2011 revolt, but revived quickly after the fighting ended.

The recovery of the Libyan oil industry helped cushion global markets as the United States and Europe tightened the oil embargo on Iran over the past year or so. International oil companies like Italy’s Eni expressed hopes that they would be able to invest more in the country, finding new reserves and increasing production.

But production fell in recent months to 550,000 barrels a day, and in recent days to as low as 150,000 barrels. Exports have tumbled to 80,000 barrels a day.

Few foreign companies now have more than skeleton crews of expatriates working in the fields, because of the dangerous security situation. OMV, an Austrian oil company that is a major producer in Libya, announced this week that it was suspending production.

“The situation is so bad, it’s unsafe,” said Dragan Vuckovic, president of Mediterranean International, an oil service company that withdrew from Libya during the fighting two years ago and has not yet returned. “Every village has a militia, and there is no central government.”

Mr. Jafar, the United Arab Emirates oil executive, said he would still like to invest in Libya. “It’s all dependent on the fragile security situation,” he said.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/13/world/africa/in-libya-unrest-brings-oil-industry-to-standstill.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economix Blog: The Search for an Era of Labor Peace

When the Boeing Company announced its far-reaching, precedent-setting agreement with the machinists’ union last week, all the talk was about the ushering in of a new era of labor peace between a company and union that were long known for their horrendous labor relations record. That record included five strikes since 1977, among them a 58-day walkout in 2008 that cost Boeing $1.8 billion.

When I wrote about the Boeing deal, I realized that there were some uncanny parallels with another far-reaching contract — and far more precedent-setting one — reached in 1948 between General Motors, then by far the nation’s largest company, and the United Automobile Workers.

Both Boeing now and General Motors then were eager to ramp up production, but both companies worried that another round of painful strikes would throw a wrench into their expansion efforts. In late 1945, a 113-day strike by 175,000 workers had paralyzed G.M., with the union demanding hefty raises not just to enable workers to keep pace with raging inflation, but to help stimulate the overall national economy. One of the strike’s slogans was “Purchasing power for prosperity.”

G.M.’s president at the time, Charles E. Wilson, feared another walkout by the militant U.A.W., then headed by Walter Reuther, especially because G.M. had ambitious plans to invest $3.5 billion — about $30 billion in today’s dollars — to expand production to take advantage of the huge pent-up consumer demand from World War II and the flood of Americans moving to the suburbs.

Fearing new union conflagrations, both Boeing and General Motors agreed, in essence, to buy labor peace by offering unusually generous contracts.

In 1948, G.M. signed a two-year contract — often called a “grand bargain” — that offered the auto workers an 11 percent raise over two years, an annual cost-of-living adjustment to help workers keep up with inflation and a newfangled notion: an additional 2 percent annual raise, called the annual improvement factor, intended to let G.M.’s workers profit from the company’s steadily improving productivity. (I write about this landmark contract in my book, “The Big Squeeze, Tough Times for the American Worker,” pages 73-76.)

Boeing, too, has been eager to expand, with its current backlog of 3,500 planes valued at $273 billion. (Like General Motors, it should be noted Boeing worried that a new, prolonged strike would give a big boost to its competitors, especially Airbus.)

Boeing’s four-year contract — its grand bargain with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers — contained many elements similar to those in the 1948 G.M. contract: annual wage increases of 2 percent, cost-of-living adjustments, a productivity incentive program intended to pay bonuses of 2 percent to 4 percent. In addition, Boeing gave the union something it badly wanted — it pledged to add several thousand jobs in Washington State (rather than another state) as it moves to expand production of its 737 Max passenger jet to 42 aircraft a month from 35 a month.

Tom Wroblewski, president of the machinists local that represents Boeing workers in Washington State, spoke for both sides when he said the agreement “signals the start of a new relationship that can both meet our members’ expectations for good jobs, while giving Boeing the stability and productivity it needs to succeed.”

For Boeing, one big, additional benefit of the “grand bargain” is that the newly happy machinists union has promised — assuming the rank and file ratifies the deal — to push the National Labor Relations Board to drop its complaint against Boeing for building a $750 million assembly plant in South Carolina rather than Washington State, a complaint originally brought at the machinists’ behest.

(I should note that Boeing, like G.M. six decades ago, can afford to be generous to its workers because it is in an oligopoly situation with few competitors, making it easier to pass on increased labor costs to its customers.)

Because G.M. was the largest and most influential company in the nation, its 1948 contract generated a cascade of large me-too raises at companies across the United States. Not only that, its two-year bargain for labor peace was so successful that it caused G.M. and the auto workers to reach an even more generous five-year contract in 1950 that assured five years without strikes. In that agreement, G.M. promised the auto workers the highest employee pensions in the country. (In the new Boeing deal, the company — at a time when many companies are freezing traditional pensions and not giving them to new hires — agreed to make its pension formula more generous for current employees and to continue providing traditional pensions to new hires.)

Like G.M.’s 1948 agreement with the U.A.W., its 1950 contract caused a flood of copycat deals in which hundreds of other companies agreed to provide generous raises and benefits in exchange for years of labor peace — a wave of contracts that went far to create America’s great middle class during the 1950s. As Nelson Lichtenstein wrote in his biography of Walter Reuther, “The Most Dangerous Man in Detroit,” Business Week hailed the 1950 deal as “industrial statesmanship of a very high order” and The Washington Post declared it “a great event in industrial history.”

Professor Lichtenstein, a labor historian at the University of California, Santa Barbara, sees the Boeing deal as far different from the G.M. deal in one important respect. He does not believe other companies are going to rush to copy the Boeing deal. Indeed, Boeing signed its generous contract in an era when many companies are reluctant to deal with labor unions, and those that do often seem to be demanding concessions.

Professor Lichtenstein said, “This kind of successful private-sector bargaining is so unusual today — and the Boeing situation is so different from the rest of the economy — that it will set no ‘pattern.’”


This post has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: December 5, 2011

An earlier version of this post misstated the terms of Boeing’s new contract with the machinists’ union. It is a four-year contract with the union, not a six-year contract.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=de6551252523119d7b8e0f8afc9cdef0