June 20, 2019

Factory Output Rises; So Do Forecasts for Growth

The latest evidence came on Friday with a better-than-expected report on industrial production, led by a jump in the automobile sector. It follows bullish indicators earlier in the week, including a drop in new unemployment claims and strong retail sales.

The data has surprised economists like Ethan Harris of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who on Friday revised upward the company’s prediction for growth in the first quarter to 3 percent from an earlier estimate of 2 percent.

Many experts had been looking for more of a drag from the restoration of full Social Security taxes in January and the automatic, across-the-board cuts in federal spending that began March 1, a process known as sequestration.

“It feels like the economy has some momentum and is in a little bit better shape to handle the sequester,” Mr. Harris said. While higher taxes and lower federal spending are a “speed bump,” he said, “the economy has better shock absorbers.”

Industrial production jumped 0.7 percent in February, the biggest gain in three months, the Federal Reserve said. Economists had been expecting a 0.4 percent rise.

Factory production and hiring are being bolstered in part by a rebound in China, which is driving output and exports among many major corporations, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisors.

The Chinese economy, the world’s second-largest, slowed last summer and fall but regained momentum in recent months. To be sure, there are still reasons to be cautious, particularly in spring and early summer, when the combined force of Washington’s fiscal restraint is expected to have its biggest impact.

Gasoline prices have also been rising. Higher gas prices helped lift consumer prices by 0.7 percent in February, although the less volatile core reading that is closely followed by the Fed was up just 0.2 percent, according to other data released Friday by the Labor Department.

The jump in payroll taxes and gas prices is squeezing lower-income consumers in particular, said Steve Blitz, chief economist at ITG.

Big-ticket items like homes and cars continue to sell well, but otherwise-strong retail sales data out earlier this week showed that spending at restaurants declined for the second month in a row.

“People who can’t afford it aren’t going out as much to eat,” Mr. Blitz said.

Consumer confidence is also shaky. The preliminary Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan reading for March showed an unexpected drop Friday, dropping to 71.8, from 77.6 in February, its lowest level since December 2011. But so far consumers have not markedly changed their spending habits; retail sales data on Wednesday was better than had been expected.

The improved retail spending over all was the “clincher” in Mr. Harris’s decision to raise his forecast for growth.

Nigel Gault, chief United States economist at IHS Global Insight, said that the wariness of consumers in the new survey “may simply be a vote of no confidence in the government and the problems in Washington. It may not be represented in what consumers do.”

According to Mr. Gault, the most important factor underlying the economy’s recent strength is an improving housing sector — a trend that may be further confirmed next week when Februrary statistics are released on housing starts and home sales.

Not only do consumers feel more confident about spending when home values are rising, Mr. Gault said, but growth in the housing sector also results in greater demand for goods like furniture, carpeting and other furnishings.

There are suggestions of that kind of trickle-down in other recent economic reports. Of the 236,000 jobs the government reported as being created in February, 48,000 were in the construction sector. Similarly, building supplies were among the strongest components in the most recent report on retail sales.

“Housing helps everything,” said Mr. Gault, who also lifted his estimates for growth in the first quarter.

Like Mr. Harris and several other economic forecasters, he also foresees a temporary slowdown in the second quarter when the worst fallout from the sequester and the higher taxes is expected to show up in the economy’s Geiger counters.

Despite the more robust indicators in recent weeks, the Fed is expected to maintain its efforts to keep interest rates ultralow and pump tens of billions of dollars into the economy each month, a policy known as quantitative easing. The majority of Fed officials have said they would not consider a shift in policy as long as unemployment was above 6.5 percent. Fed policy makers are to meet Tuesday and Wednesday.

While unemployment has come down slowly from its recent high of 10 percent, economists say the Fed’s easy money policy has been integral to keeping the economy moving, as well as lifting the stock market to new highs. The Fed is pumping $85 billion into the financial system each month — about what the sequester will drain from the economy between now and Sept. 30, said Maury Harris, chief United States economist at UBS.

The money created by the Fed’s policies is slowly filtering its way through the economy as banks ease lending standards and increase some lines of credit.

“It’s not as quick as everyone hoped, but the money is being deployed,” said Mr. Harris. “It has a lot of knock-on effects.”

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/16/business/economy/consumer-inflation-jumps.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Bucks Blog: Personal Capital Aims to Be Next-Generation Financial Adviser


Evaluating new financial products and services.

When Bill Harris thinks about investment advisers that cater to the wealthy, he said he envisions someone with graying hair behind a mahogany desk who has a “parent-child” relationship with clients.

He’d like to change much of that.

As chief executive officer of Personal Capital, which was introduced earlier this week, he is attempting to usher wealth management into the 21st century — think video chats, fancy Web charts, and e-mail in lieu of actual face time — while delivering customized financial advice to a much broader audience.

“The underserved market are people who have complex financial situations but don’t have the ability to get complex financial solutions,” said Mr. Harris, a former chief executive officer of PayPal and Intuit, who has also founded several other financial technology and security companies.

So Personal Capital is targeting people around the ages of 35 to 65 who have between $100,000 and $2 million in assets — basically, investors whose financial lives have become more complicated, and involve more moving parts than, say, an apartment rental and a 401(k).

As a customer, you’d start by linking your financial accounts to the Personal Capital Web site, the same way you would at a site like Mint.com. Then, Personal Capital harnesses all of the details of your financial life — cash coming in, credit card transactions and your investment accounts. You can then view all of your transactions in a giant check register, or examine the split of your various assets among all of your investment accounts. All of the information is elegantly presented in graphs, including a pie chart that categorizes your spending.

That part of the site is free. Human advisers can help evaluate it all, consult with you (perhaps over video chat initially) and then create what the company calls a “personal strategy” based on your specific needs, goals and assets. “Our model is a combination of technology and people,” he added. “What we are trying to do above all else is give somebody a sophisticated and holistic view of their money and an ability to manage it.”

Hiring Personal Capital to manage your money will cost a bit less than the 1 percent of assets that many higher-end financial planners charge. Its rates are graduated: it costs 0.95 percent of your assets to manage the first $250,000; 0.90 to manage the next $250,000; 0.85 percent on the next $500,000; 0.80 on the next $4 million, and finally 0.75 percent on amounts above $5 million. This includes trading and custody costs, as well as “unlimited personal advisory.”

Customers are assigned an individual adviser — full-time company employees who are paid a salary — who are also reachable via Web chat, e-mail, or over the phone. They are all required to be registered investment advisers, which means they’re held to a fiduciary standard. That’s an important distinction, since it means they are required to act in their clients’ best interest.

While Personal Capital encouraged its staff to become certified financial planners — the top credential for holistic financial planning — it was not a requirement if they weren’t already. For now, however, the firm’s main focus is on managing money, and not on helping you make decisions like whether you should refinance your home or buy more life insurance (though that may come later).

Personal Capital, which has raised $28 million from investors, has 10 advisers on staff who work from a call center in downtown San Francisco, though it expects to have as many as 30 by the end of the year. Mr. Harris said the company thinks that each adviser can handle about 200 clients.

The company refers to its investment strategy as “smart indexing,” which Mr. Harris says is a more sophisticated form of passive investing. The company is not going to try to beat the market, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into a standard collection of index funds either. (The investment side is led by Craig Birk, director of portfolio management, who was formerly with Fisher Investments, a money-management firm in Woodside, Calif.)

Instead, the company tried to create diversified portfolios using baskets of individual securities and exchange-traded funds, which are essentially index funds that trade like stocks. By using individual stocks, the company said it can better customize your portfolio, while also avoiding mutual fund fees. It also allows it to manage your holdings from a tax perspective, keeping those costs to a minimum. In fact, its approach is similar to investing in a portfolio of what are known as separately-managed accounts, which are essentially customizable baskets of securities targeted at wealthy investors.

When building portfolios, Personal Capital does not attempt to blindly replicate the Standard Poor’s 500 Index. That index is known as a market-cap weighted index, because the index’s component parts are weighted by their market capitalization. That weighting means that companies with larger market caps comprise a larger piece of the index compared with companies with smaller ones.

Personal Capital favors an equal-weighting approach, where it creates stock portfolios with equal weightings of sectors. That way, it can avoid portions of the market that analysts there believe may have become overvalued and thus overrepresented in the index. The company also believes it’s important for investors to have adequate exposure to small-capitalization and value stocks, which tend to outperform the market over time, as well as a healthy helping of international investments.

If you don’t want Personal Capital to oversee all of your money, you can invest in one of their “Personal Funds,” which are also baskets of stocks and E.T.F.’s that provide exposure to specific asset classes, say, small-cap domestic stocks, or strategies (like inflation protection or retirement income).

Gaining investors’ trust to manage their money might be one of the company’s biggest challenges. To that end, Mr. Harris points to his team’s impressive pedigrees. Rob Foregger, the company’s chief strategy officer, co-founded EverBank, one of the first online banks, while Jay Shah, the chief information officer, has held the same position at E-Loan.

Investors also need to be comfortable handing over the keys to all of their accounts to Personal Capital’s system. The company uses Yodlee to aggregate the financial data; Mr. Harris sits on Yodlee’s board as well as its risk committee. He was also the chief executive of PassMark Security, whose security system for online banking is used by most major banks. And Louie Gasparini, Personal Capital’s chief technology officer, held the same position at PassMark, which he also co-founded.

Customer’s investments meanwhile, are held by Penson, a third-party custodian, while their banking assets are held at EverBank.

Less than 24 hours after I linked up a couple of my accounts to test the service, I received a call from an investment adviser, who thanked me for signing up online, and said he was available to speak further. A few minutes later, he followed up with an e-mail.

Personal Capital doesn’t have many direct competitors. At Betterment, which is aimed at people with less money and doesn’t include personal advice, the investment management fees start at 0.9 percent for people with up to $25,000 and drop to .03 percent for amounts over $500,000. Many fee-only financial planners charge somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 percent of assets, often with a $250,000 to $1 million minimum.

And while Mr. Harris said that Personal Capital’s advisers can help you decide, say, which 529 plan to choose or how to best allocate your 401(k), it is largely focusing on the type of financial advice that it can implement. For a little more money, you can probably find a certified financial planner who will not only manage your investments, but also help you evaluate your homeowners insurance policy, for instance.

Personal Capital’s pricing seems particularly expensive for people at the low end of the target audience: does someone with $150,000 really want to pay $1,425 a year for money management? Perhaps people with more complicated financial lives and more money to manage will feel differently.

What do you think of Personal Capital’s strategy? Do you think it’s necessary to meet a financial adviser in person? If you sign up, please share your impressions in the comment section below.

An investor's dashboard at Personal Capital.Courtesy of Personal Capital.An investor’s dashboard at Personal Capital.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=e35b41b4668961bd80fe4ca0ef42b600