November 15, 2024

Economix Blog: Where the Jobs for the Young Are and Aren’t

In three regions – the upper Midwest, New England and the area around Washington – the job market for younger adults is considerably stronger than in the rest of the country. These three regions are the closest thing to an exception to the trend I described in a Sunday column: the sharp decline in employment rates for adults 25 to 34 years old. Whereas the United States had perhaps the highest employment rate for this age group among large, wealthy economies in 2012, it has one of the lowest today.

When you look at the three regions that are doing better, you quickly notice they are among the country’s best educated. According to the Census Bureau, the 10 states with the greatest share of bachelor’s degree holders are, in descending order: Massachusetts, Colorado. Maryland, Connecticut, New Jersey, Virginia, Vermont, New York, New Hampshire and Minnesota. And the District of Columbia has a higher share than any state does. Many of those also have relatively high employment rates for people 25 to 34.

The state with the lowest share of bachelor’s degree holders is West Virginia, which also has the lowest share of employed 25- to 34-year-olds. Only 67.1 percent of West Virginians in that age group were employed, based on the most recent data, from 2012. The next nine states from the bottom of the bachelor-degree ranking don’t have high employment rates, either: Arkansas, Mississippi, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nevada, Alabama, Indiana, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

This pattern is especially striking because the employment measure here — the employment-population ratio – counts as non-employed everyone who does not have a job, including people in graduate school. No employment metric is perfect. I used this one because I wanted to capture people who would prefer to be working but who are not officially unemployed — that is, actively looking for work. (For more on the flaws with the official unemployment rate, listen to Stephen Colbert.)

States with a relatively high proportion of college graduates are also states where a larger number of people in their late 20s are likely to be enrolled in graduate school and thus not working. Yet these states are nonetheless the one with some of the highest employment rates.

To be clear, education is not the only explanation. Workers in the Washington metropolitan area benefit from the federal government, and parts of the Midwest can thank an energy boom. North Dakota has the highest share – 84 percent – of 25- to 34-year-olds who are employed.

The state data here comes from Moody’s Analytics, based on underlying numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and my colleague Alicia Parlapiano created the map. Sometime soon, we will look at employment rates by metropolitan area.

Article source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/06/where-the-jobs-for-the-young-are-and-arent/?partner=rss&emc=rss

You’re the Boss Blog: A Dressmaker Tries to Deliver the Right Dress at the Right Price

She Owns It

Portraits of women entrepreneurs.

As she works to get a handle on pricing, Susan Parker, a member of our business group, weighs the competing interests of art and commerce. On the one hand, Ms. Parker, who owns the dressmaker Bari Jay, is thrilled with her creative designer and credits her with much of the company’s turnaround. The designer, Kristine Eikenbary, takes her inspiration from higher-end fashion. “Her designs are gorgeous,” said Ms. Parker.

But they are also expensive, thanks to more complicated elements that add fabric and labor costs. For example, a plain dress might require three yards of fabric, while a shirred or pleated one could take five or six — plus the added work required to create these features. On top of that, as a result of increased costs for raw materials, labor, and shipping, it’s getting more expensive to manufacture the dresses in China.

Hiring Ms. Eikenbary three years ago was a coup for Ms. Parker’s father, who spent a year wooing the designer before he became ill (he subsequently died, leaving the company to his daughters, Ms. Parker and her sister). In those three years, Bari Jay’s average retail dress price has risen to more than $200. “Two hundred seems to be the magical number,” said Ms. Parker. Many customers won’t pay more.

Despite Bari Jay’s growth — in 2010, annual sales increased 20 percent — many stores, especially in the Midwest, have dropped the company because of its prices. The slack has been taken up by increased sales to some of Bari Jay’s other retailers.

Ms. Parker said she wanted Ms. Eikenbary to keep doing what she does “because that’s what’s made us what we are.” But she also wants her to incorporate some simpler styles — even though designing simple can be complicated. “You almost feel that simple has been done in every way possible,” said Ms. Parker, presenting a challenge for Bari Jay’s creative designer.

“Does she understand the financial implications?” asked Jessica Johnson, a business group member who owns Johnson Security Bureau.

Ms. Parker said she did and was eager to make it work.

“But she’s creative, and that’s what drives her,” said Alexandra Mayzler, a business group member who owns Thinking Caps Tutoring.

“Right,” said Ms. Parker, who is starting to receive next season’s designs. When she opens the pictures, she said, she feels like she is “having a heart attack” and worries that Bari Jay won’t be able to produce the styles at prices the retailers will pay.

The company’s salespeople, who are on the front lines with retailers, tell Ms. Parker that it’s fine to have dresses that sell for $230 or $250 as long as other designs are available for $180 or $190. Bari Jay’s retailers  stock only sample sizes of each dress, so customers must order their size and wait for delivery regardless of which style they want. A store needs to carry only 12 Bari Jay styles to sell the entire line. “But if we have no dresses in the store, we just lost a Bari Jay sale,” said Ms. Parker.

“Could you do two lines, like Bari Jay and Bari Jay Plus?” asked Ms. Johnson.

Ms. Parker replied that they had considered that, but determined they would be unable to make a cheaper line. Any additional line would have to cost more.

And the rising cost of manufacturing in China will continue to be an issue, said Ms. Johnson.

“That’s my fear,” said Ms. Parker. She is unconvinced that a simple dress that costs less than $200 today will cost less than $200 next season. “I’m wondering at what point people say, ‘I don’t need a Bari Jay dress. I’m just going to go to David’s Bridal because their dresses are under $200,’” she said.

Ms. Mayzler pointed out that labor costs are rising worldwide as workers demand and receive fair pay. She speculated that rising costs must be an industrywide issue — one that Ms. Parker’s competitors are also facing.

That’s true, Ms. Parker said. However, some larger companies mass produce dresses and use cheaper fabric (a compromise Ms. Parker is unwilling to make). So while their prices are also rising, their dresses still cost much less than Bari Jay’s.

But you’re trying to attract a certain customer, said Ms. Mayzler. She added that, just as Thinking Caps provides more than “a body to warm the seat while your kid does homework,” Bari Jay is also special and should market its strengths as a maker of better-quality dresses.

Ms. Parker agreed — but only to a point. Yes, some stores do appreciate the value of a Bari Jay dress, and that’s why the company has been successful. But she worries that continued price increases could sharply limit Bari Jay’s growth potential.

“I think you have to decide what your goals are,” Ms. Mayzler said. She made an analogous decision, she said, when she chose not to offer lucrative test preparation classes, as opposed to the individual tutoring that distinguishes Thinking Caps. While the classes bring in more money per hour, Ms. Mayzler decided they didn’t fit her mission.

“The difference — or at least the way I perceive the difference — is you’re going after the end user,” Ms. Parker said. She explained that she might lose a sale to a girl who wants a Bari Jay prom dress but can’t get one because all the stores in her area have dropped the company.

“So it’s more opportunity costs,” said Ms. Johnson.

“If I don’t sell to one store, God knows how many sales I could potentially be losing,” Ms. Parker said. She added that she was not willing to consider selling directly to consumers through the company’s Web site because it would put her into competition with Bari Jay’s retailers.

We’ll check back with Ms. Parker and the other owners in future posts. In the meantime, what do you think of Bari Jay’s dilemma?

You can follow Adriana Gardella on Twitter.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=3fc1717d2d86f3ef8006c3904866c6cc

New-Home Sales Rise, but Prices Fall

New-home sales increased 1.3 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000, the department said. That was less than half the 700,000 that economists say indicate a healthy housing market.

September’s figures were revised down significantly to show a weaker rate than first estimated. The 323,000 new homes sold last year were the fewest since the government began keeping records in 1963. This year is not faring much better.

Sales were uneven across the country. They increased 22.2 percent in the Midwest and 14.9 percent in the West. But they were unchanged in the Northeast and fell 9.5 percent in the South.

While new-homes sales represent a fraction of the housing market, they have an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in tax revenue, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

Many builders have stopped working on new projects because they cannot obtain financing. The number of new homes for sale in the United States fell in October to a record low of 162,000.

Builders are also struggling to compete against cheaper resales, even as they lower their own prices. The median sales price of a new home fell 0.4 percent in October from September, to $212,300.

Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics, said the small number of new homes for sale should help the housing market recover quicker when prices began to rise.

But he said, “A sustained rebound in new-home sales appears unlikely.”

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=7a93270ac0daac4abf91c4fa2884fb31

Time Warner Cable Is Said to Acquire Midwest Cable Operator

Time Warner Cable, the second biggest cable television company in the United States after Comcast, is near a deal to acquire Insight Communications, a large operator in the Midwest, for about $3 billion, a person with knowledge of the deal said on Sunday night.

It would be Time Warner Cable’s biggest acquisition since 2006, when it and Comcast picked up the assets of Adelphia, a bankrupt cable television company.

The deal is expected to be announced on Monday, said this person, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the deal had not been made public.

The acquisition highlights Time Warner Cable’s confidence in the cable subscription business at a time when cable companies are losing customers to telecommunications companies like Verizon, and when other customers are contemplating cutting the cord and consuming video online instead.

Insight provides cable, broadband and phone services in Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio. Some of its locations complement Time Warner Cable’s operations; the two serve different parts of Columbus, Ohio, for example.

Time Warner Cable has about 12 million cable customers. The deal for Insight, the ninth largest cable operator in the country, will give Time Warner Cable an additional 680,000 cable customers.

A representative for Time Warner Cable declined to comment on Sunday night, while representatives for Insight did not respond to requests for comment. The impending deal was first reported by Bloomberg News.

Insight is owned by the Carlyle Group and other private equity firms.

When it was put up for sale this year, its owners sought $3.5 billion to $4 billion; Time Warner Cable was said to be unwilling to pay that much for the company. A spokesman for Carlyle declined to comment on Sunday.

In June, Time Warner Cable paid $260 million to acquire assets from NewWave Communications, a cable company based in Missouri with 70,000 cable subscribers. On a conference call with Wall Street analysts last month, the Time Warner Cable chief executive, Glenn Britt, said the company was “interested in extending our cable footprint” when “we can do so at the right price.”

Michael J. de la Merced contributed reporting.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=a09532e0f3d50fa3e6076f34c998c769