April 26, 2024

Cyprus Deal to Bring U.S. Stock Rally, Experts Say

The last-ditch effort to save the banking system in Cyprus should bring a rally when U.S. stock markets open on Monday, according to several investment managers.

Cyprus secured a 10 billion euro ($13 billion) package of rescue loans in tense, last-ditch negotiations early Monday, In return for the bailout, Cyprus’ second-biggest bank, Laiki, will be restructured, and holders of deposits exceeding 100,000 euros will have to take losses.

It was unclear just how big of a hit big depositors will have to take, but the tax on deposits was expected to net several billion euros.

U.S. investors won’t care too much about who takes losses in Cyprus, as long as there’s a bailout that stops the run on banks in the Mediterranean island nation and keeps the eurozone stable, said Karyn Cavanaugh, market strategist at ING Investment Management in New York.

“If this works out, regardless of the terms, this is going to be good for the market,” she said Sunday night.

Without a deal by Monday night, the tiny Mediterranean island nation of about 1 million would have faced the prospect of bankruptcy, which could have forced it to become the first country to abandon the euro currency. That precedent would have roiled markets and spurred turmoil across the entire eurozone.

The tax on large deposits likely will be 10 to 20 percent, in order to raise about $7.5 billion, said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer for BMO Private Bank in Chicago. The move should be well received by U.S. investors because it’s the third bailout deal in the eurozone, including Greece and Spain, and in each case the countries have agreed to austerity plans.

“I suspect investors will take that news pretty well,” he said.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped more than 90 points Thursday in part on fears that the crisis in Cyprus will intensify. But it rebounded and erased the loss on Friday.

Late Sunday, Dow Jones industrial futures were up 42 points to 14,501. The broader SP futures added 6 points to 1,558.00 and Nasdaq futures rose fractionally as well. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 gained 1.35 percent to 12,505.51 in early trading.

ING’s Cavanaugh said she’s still concerned that the U.S. economy, with recent weak corporate earnings, may be hurt by economic troubles in Europe. She’s advising investors to be defensive, staying in the market but moving some of their portfolios into bonds.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2013/03/24/business/ap-us-cyprus-markets.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Stocks & Bonds: Market Anxiety Grows Over Italy

That cost — extracted by financial markets increasingly doubtful about Italy’s ability to repay its loans — shows just how hard it is for indebted European countries to escape their raging financial crisis. Even as they frantically cut back their debt mountains through austerity measures, the debt servicing costs are piling up.

In Italy’s case, the extra bond yields are adding as much as 3 billion euros (about $4.1 billion) in additional interest payments annually, estimates Tobias Blattner, a former economist at the European Central Bank who is an economist at Daiwa Securities in London.

“That is a lot of money for someone trying to cut their debt,” he said. “Each day the situation deteriorates and you have to go back for more austerity measures to match them.”

The interest rates on Italian debt fell back on Thursday after Greece called off its proposed referendum on the terms of its planned bailout, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates, announcements that cheered financial markets across Europe and the United States.

The Euro Stoxx 50 index, a barometer of euro zone blue chips, closed up 2.5 percent. The German DAX was up 2.8 percent and the CAC 40 in Paris rose 2.7 percent. The FTSE 100 index in London rose 1.1 percent.

The Standard Poor’s 500-stock index was up 1.9 percent, or 23.25 points, at 1,261.15. and the Dow Jones industrial average gained 1.8 percent, or 208.43 points at 12,044.47. The Nasdaq rose 2.2 percent to 2,697.97.

Energy, industrials, technology and materials each rose about 2 percent, while financial stocks were up 1.12 percent.

The latest developments in Greece were seen as supportive for stocks, but “the big thing was the European rate cut and that is what is driving the market,” said Doug Cote, chief strategist at ING Investment Management. “Investors are going to start nibbling around and going back to risk.”  

The Italian 10-year yield — rising to 6.352 percent on Thursday before falling back to 6.167 percent — remains uncomfortably high, and could move higher again, analysts said. Facing a confidence vote on Friday, the Greek government may still be forced to call for a new election. That would again call into question the entire rescue package for indebted European countries that was agreed to last week at a summit meeting in Brussels.

Prime Minister George A. Papandreou of Greece “still has to face the confidence vote,” said Win Thin, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. “If he passes, he could still reintroduce the referendum. If he does not pass it, then the opposition is not happy about the current deal. It gets politically messy.”

Italian bond yields were generally rising even before last week’s Brussels deal, suggesting that markets felt the evolving plan was not sufficient to tackle its problems. The European Central Bank has been regularly buying Italian bonds in the open markets to try to keep yields down, but many analysts say they think it will have to buy bonds on a much larger scale to force yields meaningfully lower or even just to stop the creep higher.

Some analysts say Italian bond yields may now be reaching worrying heights. “Six percent is a light flashing,” said Mr. Thin. “For Greece, Ireland and Portugal, when it went to 7 percent that was a red light, and the yield never came back down below that.”

Those countries were no longer able to afford the high market interest rates and had to turn to official lending by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund for financing. The high yields — and widening gaps in yields between countries — complicate monetary policy. Even though the European Central Bank cut short-term rates by a quarter point to 1.25 percent on Thursday to lift growth, the policy’s effect will be muted if at the same time long-term bond yields are moving higher.

Christine Hauser contributed reporting.

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Stocks Rise on Mergers and Solid Corporate Earnings

Wall Street started the trading week fresh from a rally on Friday that had pulled the Dow Jones industrial average out of negative territory and sent it 2 percent higher for the year. The Nasdaq composite index joined the Dow in positive territory on Monday, up 1.7 percent for the year to date, while the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index, which measures the broader market, rose 1.2 percent.

At the close, the Dow was up 0.89 percent, 104.83 points, at 11,913.62 and the S. P. 500 was up 1.29 percent at 1,254.19. The Nasdaq gained 2.35 percent to 2,699.44.

The financial sector, materials and information technology were each about 2 percent higher in trading on Monday.

Analysts said that the markets had come out of the slump of the summer months to post solid gains since early October on the back of relatively encouraging news. They pointed to good third-quarter results in several bellwether companies, economic data that showed slow growth rather than none and glimmers of movement in Europe toward addressing its sovereign debt crisis.

“We have had a very substantial rally,” said Paul Zemsky, the chief investment officer of multiasset strategies at ING Investment Management. “Stocks were looking cheap from a valuation perspective.”

Strong manufacturing data from China on Monday helped drive a rally in Asian markets that carried through to other regions, said Keith B. Hembre, the chief economist and chief investment strategist at Nuveen Asset Management. “It is definitely a risk-on day,” he said.

Among the other drivers of the solid market performance Monday, analysts said, were mergers and corporate earnings.

A $3.8 billion acquisition of HealthSpring by the Cigna Corporation, which is seeking to expand in Medicare and senior care coverage, pushed Cigna shares up 1.4 percent at $45.34. HealthSpring’s shares jumped 34 percent to close at $53.71.

In another deal in the sector, Cubist Pharmaceuticals announced that it would acquire all of the outstanding shares of the Adolor Corporation, another drug company, for $4.25 a share in cash, a deal worth about $190 million. Adolor shares more than doubled, to $4.67, while Cubist shed 1.9 percent at $39.60.

The technology sector was helped by a 19 percent climb in RightNow Technologies shares to $42.94. Oracle said on Monday that it had entered into an agreement to acquire the company, which is a leading provider of cloud-based customer service, for $43 a share, or approximately $1.5 billion, net of RightNow’s cash and debt.

Sentiment was also helped, according to Eric Viloria, senior strategist at Forex.com, by remarks from William C. Dudley, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who said that it was possible the Fed could do a new round of stimulus. Caterpillar, which analysts called a bellwether, helped to drive the industrials sector higher after the company reported third-quarter profit and sales that beat analysts’ forecasts. Its shares rose more than 5 percent to $91.77.

Mr. Viloria also said in a note that the markets showed “cautious optimism” regarding the European Union meetings.

The markets in the United States opened to news that Europe’s leaders had made some progress on a package of measures aimed at addressing their financial and economic problems.

A big issue that is still looming before a European summit meeting Wednesday is how to make a stability fund of 440 billion euros ($611 billion) sufficient to cover Spain and Italy, if necessary, in addition to Greece, Portugal and Ireland.

“Even if euro zone policy makers do manage to take a major step forward on Wednesday, this is only really the application of a much stronger bandage over the euro zone’s sovereign debt problems, rather than dealing with the root cause,” Howard Archer, an economist for IHS Global Insight, said in a research note.

The United States 10-year Treasury bond fell to 99 2/32, from 99 7/32 Friday. The yield was 2.23 percent.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=ebe9c77ef05109414e1a0587f15c17db