December 21, 2024

U.S. Added 175,000 Jobs in May; Jobless Rate Rises to 7.6%

Economists were relieved that the numbers weren’t worse, given a string of other disappointing data in recent weeks, but noted that recent job trends are nowhere close to bringing the country back to full employment. At the current pace of job growth, it would take nearly five years to get the economy back to the low unemployment rate it enjoyed when the recession officially began in December 2007.

“It’s a decent report, but it’s not by any means robust,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economist at RDQ Economics, a research firm. “It’s certainly not strong enough to get the Fed to make any significant changes at its meeting in June,” he said, referring to speculation that the Federal Reserve might consider pulling back on its monetary stimulus if the jobs numbers came in strong.

On the bright side, the unemployment rate rose for a good reason: more people joined the labor force, perhaps indicating that Americans who have been sitting on the sidelines feel that they finally have a chance at finding a job. Still, the labor force participation rate remains low by historical standards.

In a New York Times/CBS News poll conducted May 31 to June 4, nearly half of respondents – 46 percent — rated the job market in their area as very or fairly good, with a third saying that they think their local job markets will improve over the next year. The same poll found that 39 percent of respondents said that the condition of the economy was very or fairly good, the highest share saying this since President Obama took office and even since the recession began.

Despite signs of optimism from consumers, other indicators of the health of the job market have been mixed. Average weekly hours and average hourly earnings, for example, have shown little improvement in recent months, according to the Labor Department.

Job gains in May were concentrated in service sectors like professional and business services, retail, and food services and drinking places. That last category has added 337,000 jobs over the past year.

The federal government, on the other hand, lost 14,000 jobs in May, presumably a result of the across-the-board spending cuts, known as the sequester, implemented by Congress in March.

Over the last three months, the federal government has shed 45,000 jobs, not including the furloughs that many federal employees are being placed on. The Pentagon, for example, has said that it would furlough 680,000 civilian workers starting in early July, with most workers losing about one paid day a week.

Though difficult to measure, the sequester probably has had effects in the private sector, both because government contractors are laying off workers and because laid off or furloughed government and contract workers have had less money to spend at their local businesses.

In addition to causing layoffs, the sequester could also be affecting those who already have lost their jobs by trimming social safety net services like Meals on Wheels and job training programs. As of May, there were 11.8 million people unemployed, 4.4 million of whom had been pounding the pavement for at least six months.

Almost every state has cut its unemployment insurance benefits as a result of the sequester, according to the National Employment Law Project, a labor-oriented research and advocacy organization. Some states, like Florida and Maine, are cutting the weeks for which jobless workers will continue receiving benefits, and others, like Illinois, are reducing the size of the weekly benefit checks (in Illinois, the cut was 16.8 percent). Some states, like Washington and Idaho, are also laying off employees who work in the labor agencies that help workers apply for benefits and find jobs.

North Carolina is ending its federally funded extended unemployment benefits on July 1 because reductions in its state benefits left it ineligible for the federal money.

“I’m having a hard time finding somebody who will give a 50-year-old with a few health problems a chance,” said Dwayne Fields of Goldsboro, N.C.

He was let go from his warehouse manager job of 12 years last October for “poor job performance” after he told his boss about some health problems, including a diagnosis of cardiomyopathy, hypertension and sleep apnea. He said he has since gotten treatment that has put him back into good working shape, but no one responds to his job applications. And his $212 weekly jobless benefit checks are about to end.

“I’m probably too old to flip burgers and deliver pizzas,” he said. “But if worse comes to worst I’ll do it. I’ve got an old lady and a 11-year-old kid to support.”

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/08/business/economy/us-added-175000-jobs-in-may-jobless-rate-rises-to-7-6.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economix: The Shrinking Ranks of the Working

Just when you thought it might be safe for the Fed to begin to think about taking its foot off the accelerator, along comes a jobs report that makes the employment picture look much less rosy than we had thought.

FLOYD NORRIS

FLOYD NORRIS

Notions on high and low finance.

The most distressing part of the report came from the household survey. It found that 206,000 fewer people were working in March than during the previous month. That would make it the worst month in more than a year. (The more widely followed establishment survey found employment rose by a disappointing 88,000.)

The household survey also found the labor force participation rate – the proportion of people at least 16 years of age who were working or looking for work – fell to 63.3 percent, the lowest rate since 1979.

That fuels the narrative that the unemployment rate is coming down not because the economy is getting better, but because people are giving up looking for jobs. It raises the specter that the Washington follies are having a more serious impact than we had thought. Raising taxes on the least well-off working people – through the payroll tax increase that took effect at the beginning of the year – might have been a poor idea.

There are reasons to hope those fears are misplaced. The first is that the household survey is notoriously volatile. It covers 60,000 households, and the numbers can bounce around from month to month as different households are surveyed. (To minimize that, households stay in the survey for more than one month, but there are always changes.)

Over time, as the baby boom generation gets older, there is going to be some decline in the labor force participation rate as retired people represent a greater proportion of the group being counted. (You are treated the same whether you are 16 or 116.)

But month-to-month changes are not influenced much by that. Particularly notable in the latest report is that the participation rate for men 45 to 54 fell to 85.3 percent in March. That is only a dip of 0.1 percentage point from February, but it is the lowest level since the figure was first recorded in 1948. It is also two percentage points below the lowest figure during the recent recession.

The idea that a lot of men in their prime working years are becoming discouraged and giving up looking for work would be profoundly troubling. Let’s hope next month will produce evidence that what we have here stems more from sampling errors than from reality.

Article source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/05/the-shrinking-ranks-of-the-working/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economix Blog: Young and Jobless

CATHERINE RAMPELL

CATHERINE RAMPELL

Dollars to doughnuts.

Since 1948, the Labor Department has been keeping track of how many young people find jobs during the summer, when employment of 16-to-24-year-olds typically peaks. Last month, the share of young people who were employed was just 48.8 percent, the lowest July rate on record.

DESCRIPTIONSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The youth unemployment rate fell by 1 percentage point over the last year, to 18.1 percent in July 2011 after having hit a record high the year before. But that decline is largely due to having fewer young people look for work.

The labor force participation rate for all young people — that is, the proportion of the population 16 to 24 years old either working or looking for work — was 59.5 percent last month, also the lowest July rate on record.

One takeaway: Youth unemployment is high, but it doesn’t tell the whole story since it leaves out a lot of people who have given up looking for work. Some of those who have dropped out of the labor force (or never entered) are in school, which is good for their careers, and the economy, in the long run. But many aren’t.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=5f03e243e13b86333d01f9a88d71d69b