May 2, 2024

A.I.G. Seeks Ability to Sue More Banks Over Mortgage Securities

Now A.I.G. wants to be able to sue other banks that sold it mortgage-backed securities that plunged in value during the financial crisis. It has not said which banks, but possibilities include Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase.

But to sue, A.I.G. first must win a court fight with an entity controlled by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which the insurer says is blocking its efforts to pursue the banks that caused it financial harm.

The dispute illustrates the web of financial instruments that A.I.G. and the federal government became tangled in as the insurer nearly collapsed in 2008 and required a vast taxpayer bailout. It also shows the complexity of apportioning blame, five years after the financial crisis, and making wrongdoers pay for their share of the harm.

According to a lawsuit filed Friday, A.I.G. is seeking a declaration from a New York state judge that it has the right to pursue “billions of dollars of fraud and other tort claims that exist against numerous financial institutions,” even though Fed officials have said A.I.G. gave up that right.

“If I were the general counsel of A.I.G., I would seek this kind of declaratory judgment,” said Henry T. C. Hu, a former regulator who is now a professor at the University of Texas School of Law. “I don’t know whether I’d win, but it’s certainly worth trying.”

Much of A.I.G.’s rescue was needed because it didn’t have money in 2008 to cover guarantees that it sold banks in case the complex securities in their portfolios defaulted. But the latest dispute centers on a less familiar part of the bailout — the part in which reserves were removed from A.I.G.’s life insurance units and replaced with what turned out to be troubled mortgage securities.

The securitized housing loans lost value so fast when the bubble burst that some of A.I.G.’s life insurers risked being shut down by state insurance regulators. The Fed stepped in instead, and A.I.G.’s current lawsuit centers on the relationship that formed between the insurer and its rescuer as a result.

The Fed paid about $44 billion to extricate A.I.G.’s life insurance units from soured trades, and set up a special entity, Maiden Lane II, to buy the plunging mortgage securities for $20.8 billion. Those securities had an original face value of $39.3 billion.

Maiden Lane II is the sole defendant in A.I.G.’s lawsuit. The complaint says that at the moment Maiden Lane II bought the securities, it locked the insurance units into an $18 billion loss — the difference between the securities’ face value and their price in late 2008, arguably the bottom of the market. A.I.G. attributes a large chunk of its losses to the mortgage securities that it bought from Bank of America. It sued the bank for $10 billion in August 2011.

But one of Bank of America’s defenses is that A.I.G. lacks standing, having given its litigation rights to Maiden Lane II.

Last month, for instance, two senior Fed officials submitted declarations saying they believed that as part of the sale of assets to Maiden Lane II, A.I.G. had agreed not to go after any of the banks.

That prompted A.I.G. to file its suit, arguing that when it sold the tainted assets to Maiden Lane II, it did yield some litigation rights, but not the ones giving it the right to bring fraud complaints against the banks that put the securities together.

A.I.G. said those banks had misled its life insurance and money management businesses regarding the quality of the securities, and “obtained artificially high credit ratings” so the securities would pass the life insurers’ investment rules.

A.I.G.’s lawsuit is separate from one that until late last week it considered joining, which argued that the New York Fed acted unconstitutionally during the bailout, harming the insurer’s shareholders.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/16/business/aig-seeks-ability-to-sue-more-banks-over-mortgage-securities.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economix Blog: The Great Dissenters

My article about Jeffrey Lacker on Wednesday mentions that he is the third member of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee to dissent at least eight times in a single year.

So who were the other two?

One instance is quite recent. In 2010, Thomas M. Hoenig, then president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, dissented at eight straight meetings. His reasons were similar to Mr. Lacker’s – concern that the aggressive efforts to stimulate the economy would undermine the stability of financial markets and loosen the Fed’s control of inflation.

Mr. Hoenig gave an interesting defense of dissenting, whatever the reasons, in a speech early the year after.

“A deliberative body does not gain credibility by concealing dissent when decision making is most difficult,” he said. “In fact, credibility is sacrificed as those on the outside realize that unanimity – difficult in any environment – simply may not be a reasonable expectation when the path ahead is the most confounding.”

The other instance dates back to 1980, when Henry C. Wallich, a Fed governor, dissented nine times because he felt that the central bank under Chairman Paul Volcker was not moving fast enough to bring inflation under control.

“Like burglary, inflation is an extralegal form of redistribution,” Mr. Wallich once wrote, according to his obituary. ”Unfortunately, many economists share with politicians the habit of always regarding inflation as the lesser of any alternative evils.”

He did not, however, dissent at every meeting that year. And according to William Greider’s “Secrets of the Temple,” he did not share Mr. Hoenig’s sense of purpose.

“It is not a pleasant thing to have to keep dissenting,” he quotes Mr. Wallich as saying. “It makes one quite useless. To be a constant dissenter is a fruitless thing.”

Article source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/09/the-great-dissenters/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Northeast Storm Spurs Surge of Jobless Claims

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 78,000 to a seasonally adjusted 439,000, the highest level since April 2011, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

It was the biggest one-week increase since a spike caused by Hurricane Katrina in September 2005.

Because the storm’s impact is expected to be temporary, the data gave few clues as to the underlying health of the nation’s economy. But it appears the short-term hit could be greater than economists previously thought.

“We will likely see a step back in job growth,” Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pa. The nation’s jobs market has had a painfully slow recovery from the 2007-09 recession and the unemployment rate remains near 8 percent.

In addition to the storm, the economic recovery is laboring against the uncertainty over the path of federal budget policy.

Economic growth is expected to slow sharply in the fourth quarter as businesses and consumers hold back on purchases as a result of fears of the impact of mandated tax increases and spending cuts, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

Economists expect job growth in the United States to slow to an average 144,000 jobs a month over the final three months of the year from 174,000 in the third quarter.

An analyst from the Labor Department said several states from the mid-Atlantic and Northeast reported large increases in new filings for unemployment benefits last week because of he storm.

Retail sales data on Wednesday pointed to a softening in consumer spending early in the fourth quarter as Sandy discouraged automobile purchases last month.

Separately, data from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank showed manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic unexpectedly contracted this month. The Philadelphia Fed’s business activity index slumped to -10.7 from 5.7 the month before.

Any reading below zero indicates a decline in the region’s manufacturing. The storm led firms in the region to reduce activity by about two days on average, the Philadelphia Fed said.

The Labor Department said in another report that the Consumer Price Index edged up just 0.1 percent last month, with a rise in shelter costs offsetting a drop in gasoline prices.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/16/business/economy/sagging-economic-data-reflect-storms-impact.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

DealBook: The Selective Memory of the Fed’s Stress Tests

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York.Seth Wenig/Associated PressThe Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The Federal Reserve seems to be hoping that an ugly chapter in America’s economic history won’t repeat itself.

As part of the regulatory overhaul that took place after the financial crisis, the Fed now has to conduct annual stress tests of the banking system. In these tests, the central bank tries to assess whether the banks have the financial strength to get through some pretty dire conditions. On Thursday, the Fed outlined those circumstances, giving theoretical forecasts for things like economic growth, bond yields and house prices.

But there’s a certain type of dire possibility that the Fed doesn’t seem to want to contemplate: the sort of economic turbulence that affected the United States in the 1970s and 1980s. Back then, inflation would get out of control and the Fed would have slam on the economic brakes by hoisting key interest rates. An economic slowdown would ensue.

In its latest stress test documents, the Fed supplies a baseline case, an adverse situation and a severely adverse one. In the latter two, the Fed does envision a lot of nasty things. In the severe one, for instance, it assumes the unemployment rate exceeding 12 percent in early 2014.

But what the Fed doesn’t consider is the country’s cost of borrowing rising to the peaks seen during the 1970s and 1980s.

In the severe case, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is at 1.2 percent during the theoretical slump. In the merely adverse case, the Fed assumes it goes as high as 4 percent during a putative recession that goes from the end of 2012 to the beginning of 2014. The 10-year Treasury yield exceeded 10 percent for sizable part of the 1980s.

Granted, high Treasury yields may be introduced in some form. The Fed said Thursday that in the next couple of weeks it will provide a “market shock” scenario, to be applied only by large banks with Wall Street operations. This will factor in “a broad increase in U.S.Treasury yields.”

It’s highly unlikely that runaway inflation will return any time soon, forcing interest rates back to 1980s levels. And if we start to move into an economy with higher inflation, the Fed can always adjust its stress tests to reflect that reality.

Still, stress tests are meant to capture the unexpected. Remember that housing crash hardly anyone foresaw? Perhaps there needs to be a fourth stress test possibility: the super severe retro recession.

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/11/16/the-selective-memory-of-the-feds-stress-tests/?partner=rss&emc=rss

DealBook: Ex-Barclays Official in Line for $13.6 Million Payout

Jerry del Missier, former chief operating officer of Barclays, arriving to give testimony to parliament on Monday.Simon Dawson/Bloomberg NewsJerry del Missier, former chief operating officer of Barclays.

LONDON — A former senior Barclays executive involved in the interest rate manipulation scandal is set to receive a $13.6 million payout, a compensation package that could add to the scrutiny of the British bank.

Jerry del Missier, the bank’s former chief operating officer who resigned this month, has been a central figure in the firestorm.

In June, British and American authorities fined Barclays for reporting false rates to increase profits and make the bank look healthier during the financial crisis. According to regulatory documents, a senior executive — later identified as Mr. del Missier — asked bank employees to lower the firm’s submissions of the London interbank offered rate, or Libor.

The Barclays case is the first major action stemming from a multiyear inquiry into rate-rigging that has ensnared more than 10 banks. Since the Barclays settlement, lawmakers have taken aim at regulators and bank executives.

In Congressional testimony on Thursday, Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary, vowed that authorities would forcefully pursue criminal investigations. Mr. Geithner, who ran the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during the financial crisis, has taken heat for not halting the illegal actions back then, despite evidence of problems. Instead, he advocated broad reforms to the rate-setting process.

“I believe that we did the necessary and appropriate thing,” he said on Thursday before a Senate panel, the second Congressional hearing this week to focus on Mr. Geithner.

Mr. del Missier, who has held a number of top positions at the bank, has also defended his actions to lawmakers. In testimony to the British Parliament this month, the Canadian-born executive said he believed he was following the instructions of senior government officials. “I expected that the Bank of England’s views would be incorporated into our Libor submissions,” he said. “The views would have resulted in lower submissions.”

Regulators say Mr. del Missier misinterpreted a discussion between Robert E. Diamond Jr., the former chief executive of Barclays, and Paul Tucker, the deputy governor of the Bank of England, the country’s central bank.

Pay issues have dogged Barclays for months.

This year shareholders balked at the size of management’s pay packages. In April, the top executives pledged to give up some of their bonuses if the bank did meet certain performance goals.

Shortly after the Barclays settlement, Mr. Diamond and Mr. del Missier agreed to forgo their annual payouts. Days later, both of them resigned over their roles in the rate-manipulation scandal. To help quell public anger, Mr. Diamond agreed to forfeit deferred stock bonuses of up to $31 million.

The former chief could still collect one year of salary and a cash payment collectively worth $3.1 million. Mr. del Missier is set to receive $13.6 million, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. The news of Mr. del Missier’s payout was reported earlier by Sky News.

Barclays is now looking to replace many of its senior officials. Along with Mr. Diamond and Mr. del Missier, its chairman, Marcus Agius, has said he will leave once a new chief executive is in place. On Wednesday, Alison Carnwath, chairwoman of the firm’s compensation committee, also gave up her position, citing undisclosed personal reasons.

A spokesman for Barclays declined to comment. A representative for Mr. del Missier was not immediately available for comment.

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/former-top-barclays-official-in-line-for-13-6-million-payout/?partner=rss&emc=rss

DealBook: Geithner Faces Senate on Rate-Rigging Scandal

Senator Richard Shelby, right, Republican of Alabama, attacked Timothy F. Geithner on Thursday over the rate-rigging scandal.Alex Wong/Getty ImagesSenator Richard Shelby, right, Republican of Alabama, attacked Timothy F. Geithner on Thursday over the rate-rigging scandal.

Congress intensified its focus on the interest-rate rigging scandal on Thursday, as Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary, vowed that authorities would forcefully pursue criminal investigations into some of the world’s biggest banks.

In testimony before a Senate panel, the second Congressional hearing this week to focus on Mr. Geithner, he promoted the government’s efforts to punish banks that tried to manipulate a benchmark interest rate during the financial crisis. He also deflected questions about his response to the wrongdoing, which occurred in 2008 when he ran the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which focused on reforming the rate-setting process rather than halting the illegal actions.

Authorities around the world are investigating whether more than a dozen big banks manipulated the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, a measure of how much banks charge to lend to one another. The benchmark rate underpins trillions of dollars in mortgages and other loans.

“We cannot lose sight of the fact that the Libor issue, at its core, is about fraud,” Senator Tim Johnson, Democrat of South Dakota and chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, said at the hearing on Thursday. “I want you to commit to me and the American people that the administration will make sure that those involved in Libor fraud will be held accountable and prosecuted.”

“Absolutely,” Mr. Geithner replied. “I’m very confident that the Department of Justice and the relevant enforcement agencies will meet that objective.”

Libor Explained

Last month, Barclays settled accusations that it undermined Libor to aid profits and deflect concerns about its health, the first action to come from the multiyear investigation. The British bank agreed to pay $450 million to authorities.

Republicans, however, took aim at Mr. Geithner for his somewhat passive approach to the Barclays fraud.
In April 2008, the New York Fed learned that Barclays had been artificially depressing its rates. “We know that we’re not posting, um, an honest” rate, a Barclays employee told a New York Fed official. At the time, Mr. Geithner ran the regional Fed bank.

But when Mr. Geithner discussed Libor with other American regulators in May 2008, he did not disclose the specific wrongdoing at Barclays. He also stopped short of referring the matter to the Justice Department.

“He, too, may have tempered his response,” said Senator Richard C. Shelby of Alabama, the ranking Republican on the committee. The statement echoed Republican criticism at a House Financial Services Committee hearing on Wednesday, where Mr. Geithner faced an even sharper attack.

At both hearings, Mr. Geithner pushed back on the critique, citing his May 2008 conversations with other regulators. He also noted the New York Fed pressed for an overhaul of the rate-setting process. In a June 2008 e-mail to the Bank of England, the country’s central bank, Mr. Geithner recommended that British officials “eliminate incentive to misreport” Libor.

“I believe that we did the necessary and appropriate thing,’ he said on Thursday.

Democrats also came to his defense.

“There are some who seek to put the entire blame on the cops,” Mr. Johnson said. “But it would be a mistake to shift the focus away from the continued effort to hold the companies and individuals who committed fraud accountable.”

Mark Warner, Democrat of Virginia, cheered Mr. Geithner for being “the only guy who actually sounded the alarm.”

For his part, Mr. Geithner acknowledged that Libor was the most recent scandal in a string of Wall Street blowups. The problems, he said, have delivered an enduring black eye to the financial industry.

“We’ve seen a devastating loss of trust in the integrity of the financial system.”


This post has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: July 26, 2012

An earlier version of this post misspelled the name of the senator from Alabama who serves as the ranking Republican on the Senate Banking Committee. It is Richard C. Shelby, not Selby.

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/geithner-faces-senate-on-rate-rigging-scandal/?partner=rss&emc=rss

DealBook: New York Fed Faces Questions Over Policing Wall Street

As the Federal Reserve Bank of New York faced criticism for missing a multibillion-dollar trading loss at JPMorgan Chase, the regulator convened a town hall meeting in May to bolster employee morale.

Two months later, the New York Fed staff huddled again, after lawmakers questioned why the regulator had failed to rein in banks that manipulated key interest rates.

“We were told to keep our heads down and stay focused,” said one person present at the July meeting who requested anonymity because the gathering was not public.

Related Links

The New York Fed, whose weaknesses were first exposed when the financial crisis hit, is undergoing a new trial by fire as it grapples with how to police Wall Street. While the regulator has revamped its approach to overseeing the nation’s biggest banks since the crisis, recent black eyes suggest that fundamental problems persist.

Lawmakers will most likely focus on the record of the New York Fed when Timothy F. Geithner, the regulator’s former president, testifies on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee. Mr. Geithner, now the Treasury secretary, will appear before a Senate panel on Thursday.

Libor Explained

The regional Fed bank, by virtue of its location in Lower Manhattan, is on the front line of financial regulation. With examiners stationed inside the banks, the regulator has a wide window into the inner workings of these institutions.

But the New York Fed does not have enforcement power like many American regulators. Instead, it reports potential wrongdoing to other agencies or the central bank, the Federal Reserve, and leaves its counterparts to dole out punishments if necessary.

The New York Fed’s mission, officials say, is to broadly protect the health and safety of the financial system — not to micromanage individual banks.

“They focus on safety and soundness of the banks, which ultimately means they are not particularly focused on market manipulation,” said Sheila C. Bair, the former chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, another regulator.

In recent years, the New York Fed has beefed up oversight. Under the president, William C. Dudley, the regulator has increased the expertise of its examiners and hired new senior officials.

Even so, the JPMorgan debacle and the interest-rate investigation have raised questions about the New York Fed. They highlight how the regulator is hampered by its lack of enforcement authority and dogged by concerns that it is overly cozy with the banks.

Mr. Geithner is expected to face questions from lawmakers on Wednesday about the rate-rigging inquiry that has ensnared more than a dozen big banks. In June, Barclays agreed to pay $450 million to authorities for manipulating the London interbank offered rate, or Libor.

Since the settlement, Mr. Geithner has heralded his efforts to reform the rate-setting process in 2008. But the New York Fed, which knew Barclays had been reporting false rates at the time, did not stop the actions.

And when Mr. Geithner briefed other American regulators about Libor in May 2008, he did not disclose the specific wrongdoing, according to people briefed on the meeting. In later briefings, New York Fed officials did warn their counterparts about “allegations of misreporting.”

“The regulator has an obligation to make a criminal referral if it suspects a crime may have occurred,” said Bart Dzivi, who served as special counsel to the Federal Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. “How this doesn’t rise to that level, simply boggles the mind.”

The New York Fed has been engulfed by controversy since the financial crisis. Mr. Geithner was one of many regulators who had underestimated certain risks spreading through the financial system, saying in a May 2007 speech that “financial innovation has improved the capacity to measure and manage risk” while acknowledging that threats remained. In late 2008, the system nearly collapsed after Lehman Brothers failed.

This year, the New York Fed was again caught off guard when JPMorgan disclosed the trading losses, which have already exceeded $5 billion. The regulator has assigned about 40 examiners to the bank, but none of the officials kept close tabs on the chief investment office, the powerful unit that placed the ill-fated trade.

In the case of Libor, the New York Fed took a somewhat passive approach. Despite mounting evidence of problems, the agency focused on policy solutions rather than the wrongdoing.

People close to the Fed note that, at the time, the regulator was primarily concerned with saving Wall Street from collapse. And the regulator pushed harder than its British counterparts, records show. Mr. Geithner urged British authorities to “eliminate incentive to misreport” Libor, which affects the cost of trillions of dollars in mortgages and other loans.

Some New York Fed examiners are now focused on how the Libor investigation could damage the bottom line at banks like Citigroup and JPMorgan. The examiners, people briefed on the matter say, are assessing whether banks need to build reserves against the growing threat of lawsuits.

The concerns echo the New York Fed’s broader moves to enhance supervision. After the crisis, the Fed formed a special team to spot emerging risks. Mr. Dudley also appointed a new head of bank supervision, Sarah J. Dahlgren, who first joined the Fed more than two decades ago after working as a budget official at Rikers Island jail.

In recent years, the New York Fed has doubled the number of on-site examiners and dispatched some of its most senior officials to big banks. The lead supervisors at each bank are some of the most “battle tested” and sophisticated regulators who are comfortable challenging Wall Street executives, one regulator said.

The New York Fed also notes that it has delved deeper into internal bank data, focusing on business units that generate the most revenue and risk. To better prepare the industry for sudden losses, the regulator has pushed banks to build extra capital.

But there are limits to its power. Despite its leading role in policing the banks, the New York Fed cannot levy fines. When examiners do detect questionable behavior, they often push the company to adopt changes. If the wrongdoing persists, officials can pass along the case to the Federal Reserve board in Washington.

It is up to the central bank to take action. The Fed, which can impose fines and cease-and-desist orders, filed 171 enforcement actions last year. The cases are down 44 percent from the year before, but the actions have increased sharply from the precrisis era.

Some critics also contend there is a revolving door between Wall Street and the New York Fed. Mr. Dudley was formerly the chief domestic economist at Goldman Sachs, and his wife collects deferred compensation from her days at JPMorgan. After Bear Stearns collapsed in 2008, the New York Fed hired the firm’s chief risk officer.

The New York Fed does limit the influence of employees who depart for a career on Wall Street. Some former senior officials cannot discuss regulatory matters with the Fed for up to a year. As an extra measure, examiners rotate between banks every three to five years to prevent a clubby culture from forming.

But some experts say the problem is not solved.

“It’s a cultural problem at all the banking regulators,” said Ms. Bair, who is now a senior adviser to the Pew Charitable Trusts. “There’s not a healthy separation, and you can see that in their hiring practices.”

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/new-york-fed-faces-questions-over-policing-wall-street/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Fed Takes No Action, Citing Signs of Moderate Growth

The Fed said that recent improvements in the economy came despite the deterioration of global conditions, and it noted the continuing risk that a European meltdown could undermine the nascent American recovery.

“The economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth,” the Fed’s policy-making committee said in a statement announcing its decision. It noted an increase in household spending and some decline in unemployment as signs of progress.

The decision was supported by nine of 10 members of the Federal Open Market Committee. Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, once again dissented from the decision, arguing that the Fed should take new measures to stimulate the economy. Mr. Evans has said that the central bank is not showing sufficient concern about the plight of millions of Americans who cannot find jobs.

The December meeting marked the third anniversary of the Fed’s decision to hold short-term interest rates near zero, a policy it has already said it plans to continue through at least the middle of 2013 and possibly longer.

The Fed also said it will continue its ongoing campaign to cut borrowing costs for businesses and consumers by investing in long-term Treasury securities, funded by proceeds from the sale of its existing holdings of short-term securities.

The news of greatest interest from Tuesday’s meeting may come when the committee releases an account of its deliberations, which it will do in early January.

Mr. Bernanke wants to improve public understanding of the Fed’s goals and methods, to increase the impact of its policies and to disarm its critics. The committee planned to discuss Tuesday a number of possible changes, including the publication of regular predictions of its own future policy decisions.

But any decisions will not be announced before the committee’s next meeting, in January. Mr. Bernanke will hold a press conference after that meeting, where he could explain the new policies. And the Fed already is scheduled to publish its regular forecast of other economic data, providing a convenient vehicle.

Fed officials say the changes could provide a modest economic boost, reducing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, by convincing investors that the central bank will keep short-term interest rates near zero for longer than expected.

The changes also could help the Fed to justify any new efforts to stimulate growth. But such efforts, viewed as inevitable by many Fed watchers earlier this year, have come to seem less likely as the economy shows signs of improving health.

The Fed already is nervous about the cost of additional measures, such as a proposal to buy mortgage-backed securities to boost the housing market. Officials also doubt the benefits of such actions, arguing that Congress has much more power to boost the economy through changes in fiscal policy. Some 25 million Americans still cannot find full-time work, and the housing market remains deeply depressed, but evidence of economic improvement makes it easier for the Fed to stand still.

At the same time, Mr. Bernanke and his lieutenants have given no indication that they are ready to resume the discussions, suspended earlier this year, about when and how the central bank should begin to retreat from its existing efforts to stimulate growth. The two pillars of this campaign are the three-year-old vow to keep short-term interest rates near zero and the Fed’s portfolio of about $2.5 trillion in Treasuries and mortgage securities acquired to push down long-term rates.

The December meeting closes another roller-coaster year for the central bank, which once again spent the winter months trying to spur a recovery, the spring months declaring that the economy was on the mend – and the summer months wondering what went wrong and looking for new ways to try again.

The Fed said in August that it planned to hold interest rates near zero through at least the middle of 2013. Investors seek compensation based on their expectations about the future level of short-term interest rates. The Fed’s announcement was intended to reduce the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers by declaring that any expectation of an earlier rate increase was likely misguided.

In September, the Fed announced a new round of asset purchases to further reduce long-term interest rates. Rather than increasing its investment portfolio, the central bank said that it would sell short-term securities and use the money to buy an equivalent volume of securities with longer terms.

The Fed’s most recent change in policy, taken at an unscheduled meeting of the committee last month, was focused on Europe rather than the United States. It agreed to lend dollars at little cost to foreign banks, easing the terms of an existing program. The initial response was enthusiastic. European banks borrowed more than $50 billion in the first week after the changes were announced.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=58dd1744e5c703e33d6ed56930955296

High & Low Finance: Time to Accelerate the Housing Recovery

It’s housing, stupid. More precisely, it’s housing finance.

As the Obama administration seeks ways to revive the economy, not to mention win an election, it is becoming clear that the biggest mistake officials made when they took office nearly three years ago was to underestimate the continuing damage to the economy from the mortgage crisis.

“There is widespread agreement among economists that housing debt is at the heart of the slow recovery,” said Kenneth Rogoff, the Harvard economist, “and that finding a way to bring it down faster would accelerate the recovery.”

The administration has sought to encourage mortgage modifications by making it easier for homeowners who owe more than their homes are worth to nonetheless refinance their mortgages. But the success of that effort seems to have been limited, and calls are growing for more action.

Interestingly, it is Federal Reserve officials, who normally seek to avoid commenting on specific government policies outside the range of monetary policies, who have been sounding the alarm with increasing regularity. They have made clear that they fear monetary policy will not be enough to get the economy moving, and that they need help from Congress and the White House.

“We at the Federal Reserve are moving vigorously to promote a stronger economic recovery,” said Janet Yellin, the Fed’s vice chairman, in a speech in San Francisco this week. “However, monetary policy is not a panacea, and it is essential for other policy makers to also do their part. In particular, there is a strong case for additional measures to address the dysfunctional housing market.”

William C. Dudley, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, laid out a housing agenda when he spoke at West Point last month. He said action was needed to make it easier for more people to qualify for mortgage loans, and also broached an idea for something that so far has gotten little political support but probably will be necessary: reducing the amount that many borrowers owe while letting them keep their homes.

He suggested that borrowers who were under water on their loans — that is, they owe more than their houses were worth — but were still making their payments should be able “to earn accelerated principal reduction over time.”

Any such plan risks infuriating homeowners who were responsible and did not borrow more than they could afford to pay. One way to improve the perceived fairness of a plan to allow principal reductions would be to tie such reductions to a structure that would give the lenders a share in any recovery in property values when the homes were eventually sold.

To many Republicans, the answer is simply to let the markets sort it out. That prescription seems to be based more on ideology than on any actual analysis of how the housing market is functioning, and it seems to infuriate Fed officials.

“Regardless of how we got here, we, as a nation, currently have a housing market that is so severely out of balance that it is hampering our economic recovery,” said Elizabeth A. Duke, a Fed governor, in a speech in September.

Mr. Dudley, the New York Fed president, also denounced the way the market was functioning. “In contrast to the efficient mechanisms in place in the commercial property market to work out troubled debt,” he said in his speech at West Point, “the infrastructure of the residential mortgage market is wholly inadequate to deal with a systemic shock to the housing market. Left alone, this flawed structure will destroy much more value in housing than is necessary.”

First impressions can be misleading, and nowhere is that more true than in understanding the housing mess. The first symptoms of trouble came in the subprime market, and it was the problems of that market that were first put under a microscope. We found loans that had been made to unqualified borrowers on terms that were, in some cases, outrageous. We found fraud. We found that credit had become far too easy to get.

And we found private-label mortgage securitizations that were stuffed with horrid loans that never should have been made, rubber-stamped by rating agencies, guaranteed by insurance companies and purchased by institutional investors without anyone in the chain doing any real due diligence. We found securitizations that were managed so haphazardly that papers proving who owns mortgages had disappeared.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=b4ef6b321481a7e95e76f804af8ce96c

Fed Cuts Forecast for Economic Growth

The Fed predicted that the economy would expand between 2.5 percent and 2.9 percent in 2012, and between 3 percent and 3.5 percent in 2013. Both ranges are significantly lower than its last projections, made in June.

The Fed also predicted that the rate of unemployment would remain above 8.5 percent at the end of 2012, and above 7.8 percent at the end of 2013.

These forecasts, published four times a year, do not have a particularly good track record, but they do offer a window on the state of the policymakers’ minds. In a word: Glum.

Nevertheless, the Fed announced no new measures to stimulate growth Wednesday following a two-day a meeting of its policy-making committee, although it said that it remained concerned about the fragile health of the economy.

The Fed’s assessment was somewhat brighter than after its last meeting in September. Growth has “strengthened somewhat,” it said, thanks in part to stronger consumer spending. But the central bank continued to note “significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.”

“The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually,” the Fed said in a statement released after the meeting, held every six weeks.

Charles Evans, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, dissented from the decision to do nothing. He argued for new measures to spur growth, echoing recent speeches in which he has criticized the Fed for caring more about inflation than unemployment. It was the first time since 2007 that a board member has dissented in favor of doing more.

The Fed had announced new efforts to spur the economy after each of the last two meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee.

In August, the Fed announced its intention to maintain short-term interest rates near zero for at least two more years, provided that inflation remained low — a decision left unchanged Wednesday. In September, it decided to further reduce long-term interest rates by shifting $400 billion from investments in short-term Treasury securities to longer-term Treasuries.

The 9-1 decision to pause now comes as the economy has shown signs of improving health in recent weeks, highlighted by the government’s estimate that growth rose to an annual pace of 2.5 percent in the third quarter. At the same time, the rate of inflation continues to decelerate more slowly than the Fed had expected, although markets continue to show little concern about it.

Fed officials also have doubts about their ability to increase the pace of growth, arguing that the lack of demand that is holding back the economy must be addressed by fiscal policy, meaning changes in taxation or government spending.

The combination of factors has postponed for now any movement toward a new round of stimulus, such as the proposal by the Fed Governor Daniel K. Tarullo last month that the Fed should consider buying large quantities of mortgage-backed securities to spur the housing market.

Fed officials have been careful to say that they remain willing to expand the central bank’s massive investment portfolio if economic conditions deteriorate. The statement repeated the Fed’s boilerplate promise that it “is prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.”

But this meeting was more of a test of what the Fed was willing to do when the economy is merely muddling. The answer is nothing new.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/03/business/economy/fed-holds-rates-and-strategy-steady.html?partner=rss&emc=rss