April 18, 2024

Fed Takes No Action, Citing Signs of Moderate Growth

The Fed said that recent improvements in the economy came despite the deterioration of global conditions, and it noted the continuing risk that a European meltdown could undermine the nascent American recovery.

“The economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth,” the Fed’s policy-making committee said in a statement announcing its decision. It noted an increase in household spending and some decline in unemployment as signs of progress.

The decision was supported by nine of 10 members of the Federal Open Market Committee. Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, once again dissented from the decision, arguing that the Fed should take new measures to stimulate the economy. Mr. Evans has said that the central bank is not showing sufficient concern about the plight of millions of Americans who cannot find jobs.

The December meeting marked the third anniversary of the Fed’s decision to hold short-term interest rates near zero, a policy it has already said it plans to continue through at least the middle of 2013 and possibly longer.

The Fed also said it will continue its ongoing campaign to cut borrowing costs for businesses and consumers by investing in long-term Treasury securities, funded by proceeds from the sale of its existing holdings of short-term securities.

The news of greatest interest from Tuesday’s meeting may come when the committee releases an account of its deliberations, which it will do in early January.

Mr. Bernanke wants to improve public understanding of the Fed’s goals and methods, to increase the impact of its policies and to disarm its critics. The committee planned to discuss Tuesday a number of possible changes, including the publication of regular predictions of its own future policy decisions.

But any decisions will not be announced before the committee’s next meeting, in January. Mr. Bernanke will hold a press conference after that meeting, where he could explain the new policies. And the Fed already is scheduled to publish its regular forecast of other economic data, providing a convenient vehicle.

Fed officials say the changes could provide a modest economic boost, reducing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, by convincing investors that the central bank will keep short-term interest rates near zero for longer than expected.

The changes also could help the Fed to justify any new efforts to stimulate growth. But such efforts, viewed as inevitable by many Fed watchers earlier this year, have come to seem less likely as the economy shows signs of improving health.

The Fed already is nervous about the cost of additional measures, such as a proposal to buy mortgage-backed securities to boost the housing market. Officials also doubt the benefits of such actions, arguing that Congress has much more power to boost the economy through changes in fiscal policy. Some 25 million Americans still cannot find full-time work, and the housing market remains deeply depressed, but evidence of economic improvement makes it easier for the Fed to stand still.

At the same time, Mr. Bernanke and his lieutenants have given no indication that they are ready to resume the discussions, suspended earlier this year, about when and how the central bank should begin to retreat from its existing efforts to stimulate growth. The two pillars of this campaign are the three-year-old vow to keep short-term interest rates near zero and the Fed’s portfolio of about $2.5 trillion in Treasuries and mortgage securities acquired to push down long-term rates.

The December meeting closes another roller-coaster year for the central bank, which once again spent the winter months trying to spur a recovery, the spring months declaring that the economy was on the mend – and the summer months wondering what went wrong and looking for new ways to try again.

The Fed said in August that it planned to hold interest rates near zero through at least the middle of 2013. Investors seek compensation based on their expectations about the future level of short-term interest rates. The Fed’s announcement was intended to reduce the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers by declaring that any expectation of an earlier rate increase was likely misguided.

In September, the Fed announced a new round of asset purchases to further reduce long-term interest rates. Rather than increasing its investment portfolio, the central bank said that it would sell short-term securities and use the money to buy an equivalent volume of securities with longer terms.

The Fed’s most recent change in policy, taken at an unscheduled meeting of the committee last month, was focused on Europe rather than the United States. It agreed to lend dollars at little cost to foreign banks, easing the terms of an existing program. The initial response was enthusiastic. European banks borrowed more than $50 billion in the first week after the changes were announced.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=58dd1744e5c703e33d6ed56930955296

Euro Zone Leaders Get Warning From Central Bankers

Jean-Claude Trichet and Mario Draghi, the current and incoming presidents of the European Central Bank, had a sharp message for Europe’s leaders Monday as financial markets swooned: Get your act together.

At a conference in Paris focusing on the world three years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Europe’s top central bankers couched their admonishment in diplomatic terms. But the warning was clear: Politicians are still not moving quickly enough to ensure that the European debt crisis doesn’t become seriously worse.

“The solvency of sovereign states should not be taken for granted,” Mr. Draghi said as the bond yields of Greece, Italy and other countries with weak finances jumped amid increased investor nervousness. Global stocks also posted steep declines amid worries about the health of the U.S. economy and Europe’s sovereign debt woes.

Europe needs to “make a quantum step up in economic and political integration,” Mr. Draghi said.

Mr. Trichet, who will be replaced by Mr. Draghi when his term expires at the end of October, renewed his call for European politicians to “imagine a federal government, with a federal finance ministry,” a setup that would make the monetary union look more like the United States.

But it is one that Germany and other countries are wary of pursuing because it could undermine their sovereignty.

These institutions, Mr. Trichet added, would have the power to “impose decisions on countries” whose own policy decisions threaten the rest of the euro zone, he said.

Their remarks came as European investors and bankers, including Josef Ackermann, the chief executive of Deutsche Bank, warned that the renewed volatility in stock and bond markets was starting to feel eerily like the days surrounding Lehman Brothers’ collapse.

“All this reminds one of the fall of 2008, even though the European banking sector is significantly better capitalized and less dependent on short-term liquidity,” he said Monday at a conference in Frankfurt, Bloomberg News reported.

His comments were echoed by other players in the financial industry.

“I fear the probability is rising of a crisis in the fall, because there’s no more political margin for maneuver,” Denis Kessler, president of SCOR, a global reinsurance company based in France, said at the conference in Paris.

Benoit d’Anglelin, who was a Lehman banker for 15 years and is now a manager at Paris-based Ondra Partners, said he was seeing “extreme risk aversion now” by pension funds and institutional investors, which have been dumping “everything risk-related” since March, including a large number of shares in French companies.

“It’s becoming unsustainable,” he said. “Imagine what will happen if the selling gets more serious.”

Despite pledges by European leaders in July to pump billions of euros more into a European Union bailout fund for debt-stricken countries known as the European Financial Stability Facility, it is not so clear that parliaments in the 17 nations that are members of the euro club will approve an expansion.

Voters disillusioned with Germany’s role in supporting Greece and other troubled euro countries dealt Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party a fifth defeat this weekend in local elections, raising concerns among investors about whether she can muster enough votes to expand the fund.

On Sunday, Reuters reported, Slovakia added fuel to the fire when a politician said the parliament would not vote until December at the earliest on whether to expand the E.F.S.F., much later than an early October deadline targeted by European officials.

“We have an absolute and total need for all of the decisions to be implemented immediately,” Mr. Trichet warned at the Paris conference. Delays or uncertainty, Mr. Draghi, added, “risk re-igniting market turbulence.”

Indeed, with a debt crisis threatening to worsen in Europe, and persistent economic weakness in the United States, markets have been moving more quickly to punish countries whose politicians are slow to make crucial decisions.

“This is not going to go away,” Mr. Draghi said.

In Mr. Draghi’s own country, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi again unnerved investors last week by chipping away at a sweeping €45.5 billion, or $64 billion, package of austerity measures to help Italy stave off a sovereign debt crisis. His backtracking drew a warning from Mr. Trichet over the weekend to stay on course.

Meanwhile, Finland has also cast doubt on pledges of European unity by insisting that it receive collateral from Greece in return for aid, another issue that threatens to upend plans to expand the bailout fund.

Mr. Draghi said that early warnings that the euro monetary union was “incomplete” because it lacked political cohesiveness had been papered over by banks and advocates who wanted to get the euro up and running at all costs.

“Now we are discovering that we can’t live with this incompleteness any longer,” he said.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/business/global/euro-zone-leaders-get-warning-from-ecb.html?partner=rss&emc=rss