April 18, 2024

Stocks Step Ahead Despite Claims Data

Stocks ended higher on Thursday after the Bank of Japan announced aggressive policies to lift its economy, but weak jobs data in the United States capped gains.

The Bank of Japan’s surprising stimulus plan came with supportive comments from officials in Europe and at the Federal Reserve, suggesting that central bank actions will continue supporting the world’s economy to the benefit of stocks. Interest rates seemed to respond to the stimulus.

The Treasury’s benchmark 10-year note rose 15/32, to 102 4/32, and the yield fell to 1.77 percent from 1.82 percent late Wednesday.

The iShares MSCI Japan Index exchange-traded fund jumped 4 percent, to $10.89, while United States-listed shares of Toyota climbed 4.7 percent, to $105.63 and WisdomTree Japan, another exchange-traded fund, rose 7.5 percent, to $43.88.

The Fed’s stimulus, along with signs of improvement in the United States economy, have helped stocks rally since the start of the year. While the Standard Poor 500-stock index is up 9.4 percent since the start of the year and broke its nominal closing record last week, it has yet to surpass its intraday high of 1,576.09, and this week investors have mostly pulled back.

“The Fed officials certainly have been going out of their way to point out that they’re staying the course and sticking with their program, which has probably been reassuring for markets,” said Peter Jankovskis, co-chief investment officer at OakBrook Investments in Lisle, Ill.

An unexpected jump in weekly jobless claims to a four-month high raised questions about the labor market’s recovery a day ahead of the Labor Department’s widely watched monthly jobs report. A report on Wednesday showed that in March United States companies hired at the slowest rate in five months.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 55.76 points, or 0.38 percent, at 14,606.11. The S. P. 500 index gained 6.29 points, or 0.40 percent, to 1,559.98. The Nasdaq composite index was up 6.38 points, or 0.20 percent, at 3,224.98.

Among the latest comments from Fed officials, Dennis P. Lockhart, president of the Atlanta Fed, suggested the program to stimulate the economy would continue for at least a few more months. Charles Evans, head of the Chicago Fed, said rates could stay at rock bottom until the unemployment rate fell to 5.5 percent. The rate was 7.7 percent in February.

The European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, opened the door to an interest rate cut as soon as next month.

The retailer Best Buy rose 16.1 percent, to $25.13, after saying it would offer a 30 percent discount on Apple iPad 3 tablets in the United States.

Shares of Facebook rose 3.1 percent, to $27.07, after the company introduced applications that let users display versions of their Facebook newsfeed and messages on the home screen of a wide range of devices based on Google’s Android system.

Analysts said Facebook’s move could divert users from Google’s services. Its shares fell 1.4 percent, to $795.07.

The report about jobless claims was the latest bit of disappointing economic news. Claims jumped to 385,000 in the latest week, confounding expectations that claims would drop by 7,000, to 350,000.

Friday’s labor report was expected to show 200,000 jobs were created last month, according to a Reuters survey. The unemployment rate was expected to remain at 7.7 percent.

Earnings forecasts have declined heading into first-quarter reports, which are set to begin next week with Alcoa. S. P. 500 earnings are expected to rise just 1.6 percent from a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters data, down from a Jan. 1 growth forecast of 4.3 percent.

If a majority of results beats expectations, as has been the trend, “There’s a good chance we could see the markets resume their upward trend,” said Mr. Jankovskis.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/05/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

It’s the Economy: The Wild West of Finance

Known formally as the Direxion Russell 1000 Financials Bearish 3X ETF, FAZ follows the gyrations of some of the most twitchy stocks, like banks, insurance companies and real estate firms. As an exchange-traded fund, it takes a security made up of a bunch of underlying assets and makes it behave like a stock. Investors can buy and sell FAZ, moment by moment, to try to grab quick wins.

But FAZ is not a simple basket of financial stocks. It’s composed of odd derivatives and loans that are designed to reverse financial stocks — to go up when they go down and vice versa — and triple gains or losses. It is designed for gunslinger day trading, as investors try to profit by predicting how the market will act in short bursts.

However reckless FAZ may sound, there’s a reason to root for the sector of the financial world that created it. Day trading is part of the often demonized Wild West of investment. It’s a world of online brokers, boutique money-management firms, private-equity companies and others — a gold-rush universe where anybody can sell almost anything as long as you don’t (technically) tell any lies. It isn’t a glamorous life. Day traders, for instance, stare at computer screens all day buying shares, only to sell them seconds or minutes later. Their hope is that if they buy low and sell a tiny bit less low enough times in a day, they can add up some real profit. Surveys indicate that most lose money and give up fairly quickly.

Hedge funds, which allow rich people and institutions to outsource their financial gambling, are the major players in the Wild West. And, contrary to public belief, they are no more likely to succeed than independent day traders. The handful of firms that have made huge and consistent profits hide a remarkable secret: study after study shows that most hedge funds either lose money or make tepid returns. Many — and, some argue, most — actually shut down after a few years.

What’s to celebrate here? The Wild West represents something akin to a normal, thriving market. It is largely overseen by the S.E.C., which takes a forgiving approach to firms that sell products to active investors. The downsides to this lax regulation are well known, but it is not without its benefits. Entrepreneurs with nothing more than a good idea can enter the market relatively quickly and compete against established firms. If they can offer better products than their competitors, they’ll succeed; if not, they go bust (hopefully before they almost blow up the world). One major sales pitch for capitalism is that constant competition makes us all better off. If FAZ — or a hedge fund, for that matter — doesn’t appeal to enough people, it will eventually collapse. And there is nothing wrong with that. Failure is as important to healthy capitalism as success.

The nation’s handful of huge banks, however, are spared the indignity of failure. (Ignore Bear Stearns and Lehman — they were puny compared with the true giants.) Citi and Goldman Sachs both bet against the interests of some of their largest clients and created products designed to fail. It’s extremely likely that all of the nation’s largest banks would have collapsed over the past three years without enormous help from the Federal Reserve. In any normally functioning market, they would have subsequently had trouble making huge profits. Instead, they’ve gotten bigger and richer.

One of the biggest problems is that the big banks are regulated in a manner that, paradoxically, often works to their benefit and against ours. The S.E.C. watches over them but so do a host of other regulators. Every large institution can choose from among the Fed, the F.D.I.C., the Comptroller of the Currency and 50 state banking regulators, all of which compete with one another in turf battles. They also have countless agencies in other countries overseeing them. With so many different regulatory bodies, some things slip through the cracks. (A.I.G., for example, had around 400 different regulators throughout the world and conducted its sketchy financial activity in places where it did slip through.) Remember that the worst excesses of the housing bubble — especially the creation and distribution of those toxic assets — occurred within the highly regulated big banks, not the lightly overseen hedge funds.

When the banking rules are rewritten — as they are every few decades, usually after a crash — the banks also get the chance to play a big role in drafting them. Last year, Congress set broad new guidelines and tasked each regulator with writing specific rules. It was a nominally democratic process — all Americans are invited to express their views about banking regulation — but the main participants are the lawyers and lobbyists for the largest financial institutions. In one example, the S.E.C. held 34 meetings with groups proposing changes to the way the important Volcker Rule, which restricts banks from certain risky investments, is implemented. So far, almost all of these get-togethers have been with big banks and their representatives. Only one has been with a consumer-advocacy group.

The reality is that smaller banks or clever entrepreneurs who want to sell useful products to the general public simply cannot pay the price of admission. They can’t get much market share, because they don’t have the influence; and even more practically, they can’t afford the extraordinary number of lawyers and the lobbyists either. And being too big to fail generally makes the largest institutions fairly impervious to competition. There are nearly 8,000 banks in the United States, but the top 20 control more than 90 percent of the market. The top three alone control 44 percent. This is terrible for customers, who would be better served if banks competed entirely on the basis of serving us better.

Some economists say banking in the United States is a full-on oligopoly, while others say, well, it’s only oligopolesque. Regardless, we clearly need smarter, stronger regulation. But we also need banking upstarts — the Googles of finance — capable of competing with the big banks. Unfortunately, many ambitious newcomers mostly see opportunities in high-risk, high-loss products like FAZ and not in sensible things that the rest of us might want.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=ccd5c59fdb7690bf52dacdfdb0601734