December 21, 2024

World Stocks Up as Crucial Euro Zone Week Kicks Off

Sentiment was also lifted by Italy’s unveiling of austerity steps, and expectations Ireland will do the same in a new budget to be announced later in the day.

European stocks were higher with the FTSEurofirst 300 gaining half a percent, building on last week’s biggest weekly gain since late 2008.

“I’m sure this week will be volatile. There will be moments of disappointment and moments of optimism,” said Katsunori Kitakura, chief dealer at Chuo Mitsui Trust Bank.

The week ahead features a series of high profile meeting among European leaders seen as crucial to the future of the 17-nation euro zone.

On Monday, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel meet to outline joint proposals for more coercive budget discipline in the euro zone, which they want all 27 EU leaders to approve at Friday’s summit.

The focus at the summit will be squarely on new rules to tighten fiscal integration.

An agreement could pave the way for an accelerated implementation of the euro zone’s rescue scheme to help ensure debt-ridden countries have a vehicle to tap for funds while encouraging bondholders to buy euro zone bonds.

On Tuesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner kicks off a visit to the region in Germany, where he will meet European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and government officials.

In a further sign Europe is making progress, four sources have told Reuters Germany is prepared to soften language in the euro zone’s permanent bailout mechanism compelling bondholders to accept losses in exchange for much stricter budget rules.

Italy, one of the most severely debt-stricken euro zone countries which has faced soaring borrowing costs, unveiled a 30-billion-euro ($40.3 billion) package of austerity measures on Sunday, raising taxes and increasing the pension age.

VOLATILITY

World stocks as measured by MSCI were up 0.2 percent. Earlier Japan’s Nikkei closed up 0.6 percent.

The euro, which gained 0.8 percent last week, was flat at around $1.343. The currency stood about 1.4 percent above its seven-week low of $1.3213 hit late last month.

“The market wants to see some kind of concrete agreement before investors are prepared to liquidate short positions,” said Niels Christensen, currency strategist at Nordea in Copenhagen.

“I see the euro trading sideways for now. We may need to see negative news that there won’t be any fresh agreement for it to test last week’s lows”.

On fixed income markets, Italian government bond yields fell across the curve on Monday, and the price of insuring against a default was also lower after the country’s austerity measures.

Short-dated Italian bond yields were down as much as 40 basis points and 10-year yields were 26 basis points lower at 6.49 percent, well below the 7 percent level that many consider unsustainable.

(Additional reporting by Jessica Mortimer)

Corrects direction of German bonds in first paragraph.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/12/05/business/business-us-markets-global.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Jefferies Details Its Exposure to Shaky European Debt

Investors have pounded Jefferies’ shares this week on fears that it could face the same problems as MF Global, which collapsed on Monday in part because of a big bet made on European debt. In the case of Jefferies, executives say it is effectively hedged for whatever the market does.

“These are fragile times in the financial market and we decided the only way to conclusively dispel rumors, misinformation and misplaced concerns is with unprecedented transparency about internal information that is rarely, if ever, publicly disclosed,” said Richard B. Handler, chief executive of Jefferies.

The firm said that despite more than $2.4 billion in gross exposure, its total net exposure equaled just $9 million, because of trades where it has made a bet against euro zone bonds, called a short position. The short position offsets the risk of holding the bonds, known as a long position. In the case of Italy, for example, Jefferies said it owned $2.09 billion in Italian bonds, while it had an offsetting short position of $2.01 billion.

After swinging Friday between a low of $11.12 and a high of $12.97, shares of Jefferies finished the day at $12.07, up 6 cents. That’s still down 18 percent for the week.

Despite the additional disclosure, analysts said part of the problem was that even if Jefferies’ exposure was manageable, its business model depended heavily on short-term borrowing, exposing it to trouble if lenders became nervous and pulled back on credit.

Jefferies is hardly the only brokerage firm that relies heavily on short-term borrowing, and analysts say these firms are likely to face more pressure. The short-term funding model prevailed on Wall Street until the financial crisis of 2008, when doubts prompted lenders to cut off credit as Bear Stearns and then Lehman Brothers tottered, helping to push some firms toward the brink. In response, survivors like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs assumed the status of banks, which gives them access to ample money from the Federal Reserve’s discount window if private sources of cash dry up.

While Jefferies’ leverage isn’t extreme by Wall Street standards — it stands at about 13 to 1, compared with 34 to 1 for MF Global — Jefferies must still borrow $13 for every dollar the firm has in equity. The doubts about the firm expressed in the sell-off of its shares this week can prompt more nervousness among lenders and even more selling.

As a result, executives have been fighting a fierce battle to stave off talk that Jefferies is in trouble, reaching out to analysts, investors and traders in a bid to reassure them, and issuing five press releases over the course of the week.

“Our firm stands on a solid foundation of over $8.5 billion of long-term capital and we look forward to continued success,” Mr. Handler said in a statement on Friday.

The additional information released Friday “misses the point,” said Sean Egan of the Egan-Jones Ratings Company, which tracks credit risk and which downgraded Jefferies earlier in the week.

Risk officers at financial firms will be much more cautious in the wake of MF Global’s demise, hurting independent brokerage firms like Jefferies that do not have the backstop of the Federal Reserve’s discount window. At the same time, the dependence on short-term financing heightens risk when volatility increases and market conditions deteriorate.

“Previously well-founded assumptions are being challenged in this market,” Mr. Egan said.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=be38f8dc8e2710d74a2153842195dd0a

Greek Rescue Plan May Allow for Default on Some Debt

Details of the agreement, reached early Thursday in Berlin after seven hours of talks, were not disclosed. The talks had centered on the role private investors and banks would have to play in stabilizing Greece’s finances and reducing a debt burden that threatens to stifle any prospect of economic recovery.

A statement from the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, and the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, said they had “listened” to the views of the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, who flew in from Frankfurt unexpectedly to join the meeting.

Though it did not say if they had settled the issue of whether Greece should be allowed to write down some of its debt — something Mr. Trichet has argued publicly and adamantly against — suggestions ahead of the summit meeting in Brussels were that the E.C.B had softened its stance.

“The demand to prevent a selective default has been removed,” the Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager told the Dutch parliament in The Hague, Reuters reported.

Were Mr. Trichet to accept a temporary default, the euro-zone leaders may have to consider new ways to ensure that Greek banks could access funding that they currently receive from the E.C.B, possibly by guaranteeing Greek bonds themselves for a short period.

The euro and European stocks rallied on news of a potential deal, while the risk premium investors demand to hold the weaker euro zone bonds rather than benchmark German ones fell.

The French-German agreement was being presented to the other leaders of the 17 member euro zone in Brussels. The summit meeting was called after days market turbulence in which borrowing costs spiked in Italy and Spain, raising fears the euro debt crisis would spread to those, much bigger countries, potentially setting off another global financial crisis.

Representatives of big European banks were said to be in Brussels in parallel meetings, said one official not authorized to speak publicly.

Germany, Finland and the Netherlands have been at odds with the E.C.B. and some governments over their insistence that private bondholders share the pain. Besides concerns over contagion, the central bank has said that a selective default would make it impossible to accept Greek bonds as collateral.

“Selective default” is a term used by credit rating agencies when the terms of a bond, such as the repayment deadline or interest rate, have been altered. It falls short of an outright default rating, which is usually triggered when the borrower stops making payments.

Many saw the summit meeting as a moment of truth, particularly for Mrs. Merkel, whose caution has been blamed by some for the region’s failure to stem the crisis.

The central elements of the package are expected to be a buyback of Greek bonds, probably financed via the euro zone bailout fund known as the European Financial Stability Facility, the official said. That would reduce the stock of Greek debt by around 20 percentage points of gross domestic product.

The official said the final statement from the summit meeting would remain relatively vague on the exact extent that banks will “voluntarily” participate in the bailout, for fear that too much commitment now on might spook credit rating agencies, according to another euro area official involved in the talks, who also was not authorized to speak publicly. Details of the private sector involvement will be communicated at a later date, he said.

European leaders are not expected to increase the size of the E.F.S.F., although such a step is not being ruled out for the future, the second official said.

But the final statement is likely to include details of a plan to assist Greece as well through the transfer of more European Union funds earmarked for development, based around infrastructure spending, the official added.

Another element being considered was a plan that would have private creditors swap Greek bonds that mature in the next few years for longer-term ones, but it was less clear if that would be adopted.

Officials suggested that an earlier proposal for a tax on banks had been dropped. This was once seen as a tool for raising private sector financing without provoking a default but posed technical problems since the tax would have to be levied by each national government and would exclude countries that did not use the euro even if they had Greek liabilities.

Asked about the bank tax idea Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg and head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, said: “I don’t think that there will be an agreement on that.”

In all the Commission wants the euro area and the International Monetary Fund to contribute 71 billion euros, or $100 billion, to the rescue plan, up to 2014.

One element attracting consensus is the need to reduce the burden on indebted nations, not only by buying back Greek bonds but also through a reduction in the interest rates offered to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, which have also accepted international help. The maturities of these loans would also be extended.

As part of the Greek package, Ireland and Portugal — the other two euro countries that have received international bailouts — will receive new, similarly favorable financing conditions on their official loans, the second official said, meaning that they would have to pay the E.F.S.F.’s borrowing rate plus some costs, which are all expected to come in around 3.5 percent.

Ireland will not be required to raise its relatively low corporate tax rate, currently 12.5 percent, as some countries, such as France, had sought, the official said.

“They will have a lower interest rate and extended maturities without giving up anything,” the official said.

Matthew Saltmarsh in London contributed reporting.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=2e05e9c1b0665d6bc3e8552ec4966053