November 23, 2024

Economic View: Darwin, the Market Whiz

Since Darwin, the pioneering naturalist, never thought of himself as an economist, the question seems absurd. Yet his understanding of competition describes economic reality far more accurately than Smith’s. Within the next century, I predict, Darwin will be seen by most economists as the intellectual founder of their discipline.

Smith is renowned for his “invisible hand” theory. According to his modern disciples, it holds that unbridled market forces harness self-interest to serve the common good. Darwin understood that individual and group interests sometimes coincide, as in Smith’s framework. But Darwin also saw that interests at the two levels often conflict sharply. In those cases, he said, individual interests trump.

A spectacular example from nature illustrates his point. The massive antlers of bull elk are often four feet across and weigh more than 40 pounds. Why so big? Darwin’s explanation began with the observation that bull elk, like males in most vertebrate species, take more than one mate if they can. If some succeed, others end up with no mate at all, making them the ultimate losers in the contest to pass along their genes. So bulls fight bitterly for females, and mutations coded for larger antler size help them win. That arms race has produced the gigantic antlers we see today.

As a group, bulls could better escape from wolves in densely wooded areas if their antlers were smaller, yet any individual bull with relatively small antlers would never win a mate. So bull elk are stuck with unwieldy antlers.

Many 19th-century social Darwinists mistook Darwin’s message to be that whatever emerges from the struggle to survive is morally praiseworthy. But Darwin believed no such thing. He understood that competition often favored traits that brought misery to all, and he knew animals like elk could do nothing about it. But human beings, who face similar conflicts, have better options.

Darwin’s insight can help us resolve a host of seemingly intractable economic problems in the United States, and in nations that have followed our lead. Applied properly, it would lead to simple steps that could liberate trillions of dollars in resources each year — enough to end perennial battles over budget deficits, restore our crumbling infrastructure and pay for the investments needed for a sustainable future. No painful sacrifices would be required. No cherished freedoms would be threatened. Just a few changes in the tax code would suffice.

These bold claims evoke an alchemist’s promise to transform lead into gold. But they rest on sound logic and compelling evidence.

POLITICAL gridlock in Washington has many causes. A seldom-discussed one is that the current rhetoric often rests on basic misunderstandings of how markets work.

On one side, advocates of minimal government invoke Smith’s invisible hand to argue that we could make the economy more efficient by pushing government aside and letting markets work their magic. Liberals counter that markets aren’t truly competitive. We need extensive government regulation, they say, because powerful elites would otherwise exploit workers and consumers.

Close reading of Smith’s work shows that his position was very similar to the modern liberal’s. He thought it remarkable that self-interest often promoted the common good, but he never claimed it always did. Like modern liberals, he saw market failure as rooted in insufficient competition. In “The Wealth of Nations,” he wrote, “People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.”

Today, though, markets are far more competitive than ever, just as conservatives maintain, but they’re also hugely more wasteful. The apparent paradox is resolved once we recognize that market failure stems from the very logic of competition itself. As Darwin knew, when individual and group interests diverge, competition not only fails to promote the common good, it also actively undermines it.

The modern marketplace is rife with individual-versus-group conflicts like the one that spawned outsized antlers in bull elk. If you’re one of several qualified applicants seeking an investment banking job, for example, it’s in your interest to look good during your interview. But looking good is a relative concept. If other applicants wear $600 suits, you’ll make a more favorable impression if you wear one costing $1,200.

Robert H. Frank is an economics professor at the Johnson Graduate School of Management at Cornell University. This essay is adapted from his new book, “The Darwin Economy: Liberty, Competition and the Common Good.” (Princeton University Press).

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=85bd5b319e949decb91cc657e7aee526

Consumer Inflation Higher Than Expected

WASHINGTON — The inflation rate in the United States decelerated slightly in August as gasoline prices rose at a more modest pace and the cost of buying a new car held flat, the Labor Department said on Thursday. But rate was still higher than analysts’ forecasts.

At the same time, the department said the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose unexpectedly last week in a sign concerns about a weak economy were sapping an already beleaguered labor market.

The Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent last month, after rising 0.5 percent in July. The reading was higher than the 0.2 percent rise expected, with food prices posting their biggest gain since March.

Gasoline prices climbed 1.9 percent after jumping 4.7 percent the prior month. Food prices rose 0.5 percent after increasing 0.4 percent in July.

Core C.P.I. — which excludes food and energy — rose 0.2 percent after rising at the same rate in July. Last month’s gain was in line with economists’ expectations.

In the 12 months that ended in August, core C.P.I. increased 2.0 percent — the biggest rise since November 2008. This measure has rebounded from a record low of 0.6 percent in October 2010.

Overall consumer prices rose 3.8 percent year-over-year, the most since September 2008.

Applications for unemployment benefits climbed to 428,000 in the week ended Sept. 10 from an upwardly revised 417,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said.

It was the second straight week in which claims rose. Wall Street analysts had been looking for a dip to 410,000.

Excluding one week in early August, claims have held above 400,000 since early April. The four-week moving average of claims, which smoothes out volatility, rose to 419,500 from 415,500 the prior week.

Continuing claims eased to 3.726 million in the week ending Sept. 3 from 3.738 million the previous week. The number of total recipients on benefit rolls was 7.144 million.

U.S. employment growth ground to a halt in August, with zero net job creation raising fears of a new recession and putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy further at 536870913 543782003

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=28597a608b9aabed9bcc605d4766b5fd

Almost Out of Tricks, Fed May Train Sights on Longer-Term Rates

Cheaper credit could give the economy a boost — and prompt more hiring — by encouraging more borrowing, so companies and consumers have more money to spend. But with interest rates already low, it isn’t certain how much this might help the economy, though proponents of more action by the Fed argue that this is better than not trying.

The central bank has already undertaken a spate of unprecedented measures to reinvigorate growth, including two large rounds of asset purchases. At its August meeting, many Fed policy makers expressed interest in engaging in further easing measures, but could not agree what to do.

This dismal job report may spur them to action.

“I just don’t think the Fed will sit idly as momentum fizzles in this recovery,” said Dana Saporta, a United States economist at Credit Suisse. “We fully expect some more action from the committee later this month.”

The Fed is running low on ammunition, though, and given political attacks on its accommodative measures thus far, its options are especially constrained.

As a result, economists predict that the Fed will change the composition of the assets on its balance sheet, instead of expanding its size as it has in the past. Right now the Federal Reserve holds about $1.7 trillion in United States Treasury securities, of a vast array. Some mature in a few days, and others in more than 10 years. Many economists are guessing that the central bank will start selling off the ones that mature soon, and buying up more Treasuries that mature later.

Buying more longer-term Treasuries increases the demand for longer-term issues. And as their prices rise, the interest rates on those securities fall, as do many other interest rates across the economy that are pegged to the Treasury rate.

In addition to stimulating the economy with cheaper credit, lower long-term interest rates could encourage investment in riskier assets, like stocks. After all, if 10-year Treasuries don’t offer much in the way of returns, investors will seek higher returns elsewhere. If investors do start buying up riskier assets, those asset prices rise. Consumers then see that their portfolios are worth more, causing them to feel richer and so more comfortable with spending. This is known as the wealth effect.

There are limits to how aggressive the Fed can be in swapping out short-term securities for longer-term ones. If it sells too many shorter term notes, then short-term interest rates will rise, and the Fed has already promised markets that it will keep short-term rates near zero for the next two years.

Plus, after two rounds of quantitative easing and a worldwide flight to safety, longer term interest rates are already at historical lows of about 2 percent. It is not clear that lowering them further would do much to encourage more investment in riskier assets, or to increase lending.

“The cost of borrowing is not the problem,” said Paul Ashworth, chief United States economist at Capital Economics. “The problem is that there are not creditworthy borrowers, and that businesses don’t want to invest because they’re concerned about the economic outlook.”

Additionally, if investors do start increasing their investments in assets with higher returns, they may pour more money into commodities like oil. And commodity prices are already higher today than they were a year ago; pushing energy and food prices further up could actually discourage consumers from spending.

Other options that Fed might consider include lowering the interest rate it pays banks on excess reserves to encourage them to lend more, but many economists doubt that this would have substantial effects on growth. A more aggressive option would be to raise its medium-term target for inflation.

If prices are expected to rise, banks, businesses and consumers will be more eager to spend their money before it loses value. That could have positive effects throughout the economy, since spending means more demand for goods and services, which means companies need to hire more employees, which means more spending, and so on.

Additionally, inflation would lower the value of many people’s debt burdens and so help with the painful process of deleveraging.

The problem, though, is that inflation has some major downsides, too — especially if coupled with sluggish growth, as seen during the “stagflation” of the 1970s. Not having a good sense of how much your next gallon of milk or gas will cost is stressful, particularly if your wages aren’t rising to match the higher prices. And some economists contend that raising inflation would only defer, not eliminate, the nation’s problems.

“People who say we should get the inflation rate up to 5 percent forget that there’s a second half of that policy: bringing it back down again,” said Allan H. Meltzer, an economics professor at Carnegie Mellon and a Fed historian. “Raising it, that’s the fun part. Lowering it, that’s the painful part. At some time in the future you’re going to have that pain. Why is it better later than now?”

Mr. Meltzer, like many other economists, argues that any further Fed actions will have little effect on the economy.

Even Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, stated in a speech last week that most of the tools that could be used to increase growth are “outside the province of the central bank.”

In other words, said Ms. Saporta, “the Fed is putting the ball back in Congress’s court.”

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=f273782ed1933de8bcb063111b7289c4

Italy’s Proposed Austerity Measures Fall Apart

ROME — Just a few weeks ago, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi announced a sweeping 45.5 billion-euro package of austerity measures to help Italy stave off a sovereign debt crisis. Today, those measures are unraveling, subject to so much backtracking and political wrangling that European leaders are raising the pressure on Italy to deliver as promised.

Every day, modifications to a wide array of steps — whether tax increases, pension spending or cuts to local government — appear and vanish like so many trial balloons as Mr. Berlusconi struggles to appease the conflicting vested interests within his own fractious coalition. Rounding out the fray are the center-left opposition and labor unions, which oppose many of the measures and have called a general strike for Tuesday.

This might seem the usual Italian political theater. But with the future of the euro in play, and with Mr. Berlusconi’s government weaker by the day, European leaders have become alarmed by the disarray. In an interview published Friday in an Italian business journal, the head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, called the steps “extremely important.”

“It is therefore essential that the objectives announced for the improvement of public finances be fully confirmed and implemented,” Mr. Trichet added.

The Berlusconi government announced the new measures in mid-August, promising to eliminate the budget deficit by 2013, a year earlier than planned, in exchange for the European Central Bank buying Italian debt to help reduce the country’s borrowing costs and stave off a debt crisis.

But after weeks of relative calm, yields on Italian bonds rose Friday to 5.24 percent, their highest levels since the central bank’s intervention. Economists say that higher borrowing costs could strangle the Italian economy, which the International Monetary Fund expects to grow by only 1 percent in 2011 — not enough to bring down a public debt that is 120 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product, the highest percentage in the euro-zone after Greece.

Last week, the deputy director general of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, warned Italian lawmakers that the austerity package “cannot be reduced, even in light of the unfavorable evolution of the international macroeconomic picture.”

In harsh statements this week, the Italian industrialists’ organization, Confindustria, called the austerity package “weak and inadequate,” saying it could place both Italy and Europe at risk.

Exactly what those measures are, however, has become a moving target, with the government backing away from steps it once called crucial. The final bill is expected to be put to a vote in the Senate next week and the Lower House the following week.

In recent weeks, the government called off a proposed “solidarity tax” on those who earn more than 90,000 euros a year, the equivalent of about $127,800, after opposition from lawmakers within the center-right coalition who feared it would damage their supporters. And after complaints from local politicians, it also reduced the proposed cuts to financing for local governments by 1.8 billion euros.

On Monday, after a daylong meeting with his ministers, Mr. Berlusconi announced that Italy would reach its budget-cutting goal by not allowing Italians to include their time in universities or once-mandatory military service in the 40 years of social security contributions required to be eligible for a state pension. But he dropped the proposal two days later, after protests by the center-left opposition and labor unions.

Analysts say the confusion is undermining Italy’s clout in Europe. “The credibility of Italy in the eyes of the European Central Bank hinges on the clarity and the certainty of its choices — exactly what it has not shown in recent days,” the political commentator Massimo Franco wrote in a front-page editorial Friday in Corriere della Sera.

The reversals add up to a 5 billion-euro hole that the government must fill, said Chiara Corsa, an analyst at Unicredit in Milan.

On Friday, Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti said the government would fill the hole using other means, including the revenues expected from cracking down on tax evasion. In one proposal, Italians would face jail time if a court finds they owe more than 3 million euros in back taxes, and cities would be able to post the tax returns of its citizens to discourage evasion. Confindustria criticized those measures as inadequate, “incoherent” and difficult to implement technically in Italy’s complex legal system.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/03/world/europe/03italy.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economix Blog: Jobs Report Preview

On Friday morning, the Labor Department will release its first estimate for the number of jobs created in the United States in August, and right now expectations are low.

CATHERINE RAMPELL

CATHERINE RAMPELL

Dollars to doughnuts.

Wall Street analysts have a median forecast of just a 60,000 net gain in nonfarm payroll jobs, about half of the gain from July. The unemployment rate — which comes from a different survey, and reflects the share of people who want work and are actively looking for it but can’t find a job — is expected to remain 9.1 percent.

To put this in perspective, the United States generally needs to add about 150,000 jobs each month just to keep up with the growth in the working-age population.

These are among the factors that economists are citing for their weak forecasts:

  1. The latest consumer confidence survey from the Conference Board showed a sharp drop in perceptions of job availability, back to the lowest level since 2009.
  2. A survey from the Institute for Supply Management showed a decline in manufacturing hiring.
  3. Layoff announcements have been higher in the last two months than they were earlier this year, according to a recent Challenger, Gray Christmas.
  4. The recent strike by 45,000 Verizon workers occurred during the week that the Labor Department collects data on employment, and so that may be reflected in the employment and unemployment numbers.
  5. Layoffs by state and local governments are continuing.

Even if the numbers come in just as expected, economists will be scouring the report for any signs of what lies ahead.

Here are some details to keep an eye on:

  1. What’s happening to the length of the workweek? The workweek has averaged 34.3 hours for the two previous months. Economists are expecting it to remain unchanged in August. A slight change, though, would give a sense of whether employers are thinking of expanding or shrinking their staffs, since they usually change hours before making the bigger commitment to hire or fire.
  2. How much are average hourly earnings changing? The consensus forecast is that wages will rise 0.2 percent, after having risen 0.4 percent in July. Wage fluctuations can be important for consumer spending, which drives the economy. Recent surveys have found that consumers have very low expectations for income increases in the next few months.
  3. Finally, are more people dropping out of the work force? The share of working-age Americans who are either working or looking for work has been dropping to record lows. In July, this labor force participation rate was just 63.9 percent, the lowest share since 1984, when there were many fewer women in the work force. Some of the recent decline in the participation rate reflects the retirement of boomers, but it also means many workers are just giving up. This is a bad sign for the future health of the economy, especially if giving up on looking for work now means giving up forever, which it does for many older workers.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=224e06809c4596f36f3d7f2af88325d8

Hiring Slowdown Seen for Small Business

That is according to a new report released Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business, a trade group that regularly surveys its membership of small businesses across America.

The federation’s report for May showed the worst hiring prospects in eight months. The finding provides a glimpse into the pessimism of the nation’s small firms as they put together their budgets for the coming season, and depicts a more gloomy outlook than other recent (if equally lackluster) economic indicators because this one is forward-looking.

While big companies are buoyed by record profits, many small businesses, which employ half of the country’s private sector workers, are still struggling to break even. And if the nation’s small companies plan to further delay hiring — or, worse, return to laying off workers, as they now hint they might — there is little hope that the nation’s 14 million idle workers will find gainful employment soon.

“Never in the 37-year history of our company have we seen anything at all like this,” said Frank W. Goodnight, president of Diversified Graphics, a publishing company in Salisbury, N.C. He says there is “no chance” he will hire more workers in the months ahead.

“We’re being squeezed on all sides,” he says.

Each month, the National Federation of Independent Business surveys the owners of small businesses about how they are doing and where they think the economy is going. One question asks whether businesses plan to increase or decrease the number of employees in the next three months. Economists then calculate a net hiring figure by subtracting the percentage of companies that plan to downsize from the percentage that plans to expand.

In May, the share of companies that planned to shrink their work forces was one percentage point higher than the share of companies that planned to expand them, the first time since last September that this indicator was negative. And even though it was slightly negative, this index, a fairly reliable indicator of hiring decisions, has been trending downward all year.

The unemployment rate has been stubbornly high in the last year, primarily because companies have stopped hiring, not laying off more workers. Although layoffs were at a record low in April, the latest monthly data available, Tuesday’s survey suggests that workers may soon be challenged by both sides of the employment ledger.

With wages relatively stagnant in recent months, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey found that workers’ expectations for their families’ income growth over the next year were at a record low. This is the first recovery in which, seven quarters in, there have been zero gains in aggregate wages and salaries.

Stagnant wages, coupled with the recent stock market slide and further declines in housing prices, have left consumers feeling not well-off enough to significantly increase their spending, which would encourage hiring.

“One thing you’ve got to understand is that we do not hire workers for the sake of hiring workers. We hire them to do jobs,” Mr. Goodnight said. “If we don’t have the work coming in, nothing will make me hire another person.”

When asked about the “single most important problem” facing their businesses, about one in four cited “poor sales,” according to the federation’s survey. Uncertainty over regulations is also mentioned frequently. About a third of businesses blame either “taxes” or “government requirements” for their current troubles, leading some economists to attribute the recent slide in overall business optimism to Washington’s protracted debates over tax policy, financial changes and health care.

Meanwhile, larger businesses, sitting on mountains of cash, have been weathering the weak recovery relatively well.

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook survey, also released on Tuesday, is a less closely watched report that relies on responses from the chief executives of larger companies. It found that the number of large companies expecting their American work forces to grow in the next six months far outnumbers those that anticipate shrinkage.

“What we’ve had is a tale of two recoveries,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics. “Between large businesses and small businesses, it is literally the best of times and the worst of times.”

Several factors have helped larger companies succeed, economists say.

Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and a former economic adviser to Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., said, “Larger businesses have consistently had more going for them in this recovery.”

He added: “They have better access to credit markets. They have greater ease in exporting abroad where some economies are growing faster than ours. All that shows up in their profits.”

The one potential bright spot in the small-business survey involves industries that have had the smallest job growth but now seem willing to add jobs, according to William C. Dunkelberg, the chief economist for the federation.

These include construction and nonprofessional services like restaurants, which was crippled by the housing bust. Manufacturing, which had been the engine of job growth for many months before scaling back in May, also showed promise.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=cd8863dac01717bc550d511f259613ba

Economix Blog: The Value of a Selective High School

Economics doesn’t have to be complicated. It is the study of our lives — our jobs, our homes, our families and the little decisions we face every day. Here at Economix, journalists and economists analyze the news and use economics as a framework for thinking about the world. We welcome feedback, at economix@nytimes.com.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=72be042f9988cf2901ffb8051de0fc27

Bucks: Will Low Rates Influence Your Behavior?

In an article for Monday’s paper, my colleague Motoko Rich and I discussed how the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future might not be enough to entice consumers to take on more debt.

After all, the threat of another downturn is keeping people with jobs on their best financial behavior. And the unemployed (and underemployed) are worried about staying current on their existing debts, and probably would not qualify for new loans anyway.

At the same time, consumers have been shedding their existing debts over the past few years, yet household debt levels remain historically high.

But since consumer spending is one of the large engines that drive the nation’s economy, this presents a conundrum. As the article states, many economists argue that the economy cannot get back to true health until the debt level comes down. But credit, made attractive by low rates, is a time-tested way to kick-start consumer spending.

Are you planning on changing your spending and borrowing behavior? Are you confident enough with your financial position to take on new debt? And if you recently applied for a new loan or mortgage, was it difficult to qualify?

Please drop your thoughts in the comment section below.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=7d1f6c48fbd054751e7f79fcbe2b139a

Economix Blog: Who Pays the Supercommittee?

The 12 members of the “supercommittee” that will try to develop yet another bipartisan fiscal policy proposal have now been named. What types of spending programs and tax breaks should we expect these members to care about most?

It might help to look at which industries and individuals give them the most money.

CATHERINE RAMPELL

CATHERINE RAMPELL

Dollars to doughnuts.

MapLight, a nonpartisan research organization, has compiled donation profiles for each of the 12 members, using data from the Center for Responsive Politics.

Over the last decade the top donor, by far, was the legal industry, followed by securities and investment:

Top 10 Industry Contributors to Supercommittee Members

The individual organizations that gave the most money — including both PAC money and employee donations — were the Club for Growth, followed by Microsoft.

Top 10 Organization Contributors (PACs and Employees) to Supercommittee Members

As all good economists know, incentives matter: Politicians (like all people) are generally reluctant to bite the hand that feeds them.

Given that the antitax group Club for Growth is at the top of the list of organizational contributors, for example, we might not be surprised to find that many of the committee members are dead-set against raising taxes.

Likewise, donations from the securities and investment industry might indicate that legislators could be reluctant to eliminate the lower tax rate for “carried interest,” which primarily benefits investment managers. Donations from the real estate industry might mean the mortgage interest tax deduction, whose elimination many economists support,  could also be relatively protected.

How else might we expect the sources of these donations to shape how committee members think about fiscal policy?

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=06d2b03897e5759c72e86857a333fd27

Economix Blog: How Far Should Consumers Unwind Debt?

In an article today, Tara Siegel Bernard and I examined whether the Fed’s announcement that it would keep credit cheap for two more years would inspire more people to borrow and spend.

Aside from consumer confidence, which is decidedly shaky, a crucial underlying factor holding back borrowing is that families are still paying off debt accumulated during the boom, when credit was easy and people treated their homes like big A.T.M.’s.

According to an analysis from Moody’s Analytics, total household debt peaked in August 2008 at $12.41 trillion and has come down by about $1.2 trillion.

As a proportion of gross domestic product, household debt peaked at 99.5 percent in the first quarter of 2009, and has come down to just under 90 percent.

Economists, who talk about the “deleveraging” process, say that debt still has a way to come down before the economy will return to full health. Just how far it needs to come down, though, is difficult to say.

As recently as 2000, household debt was less than 70 percent of G.D.P., and in 1990 it was around 60 percent.

Kenneth S. Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University and the co-author, with Carmen M. Reinhart, of “This Time Is Different,” a history of financial crises, has repeatedly cautioned that this recovery would take longer than most other recoveries because this recession was caused by a debt-fueled financial crisis.

But even Mr. Rogoff does not have a specific target in mind for how far debt has to decline before households will feel comfortable adding debt again.

It may not have to go as low as it has been in previous decades, he said, because “financial markets deepened and became more sophisticated, and interest rates have been coming down, which allows households to carry higher debt,” Mr. Rogoff said.

He said that studies of financial crises outside the United States have shown that economies generally retrace their steps — in other words, if the ratio of household debt to G.D.P. doubled during the boom that preceded the bust, then the ratio needs to half again in order for the economy to get back to normal consumption patterns.

Whether that would be the case in the United States, Mr. Rogoff said, “I’m hesitant to say.” But, he added, “the overhang of debt really is the major problem for policy makers.” Mr. Rogoff suggests a mix of forgiving some of the housing related debt (perhaps in exchange for homeowners’ giving up gains from future appreciation in their home values) and pursuing a mild inflationary policy.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=3c1e1ab4a23c682ce86499d7c34542b6