December 21, 2024

After Downgrades, European Leaders Argue for Both Austerity and Stimulus

Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, said Saturday that the downgrade by Standard Poor’s meant the euro area must speed up measures to create a more centralized currency union.

“We are now challenged to implement the fiscal pact quickly,” Mrs. Merkel said in a statement Saturday, a day after S. P. downgraded France, Austria and seven other countries — but not Germany. She added that leaders should not water down the agreement and instead quickly pass other measures they have agreed to, like limits on debt.

In Italy, Prime Minister Mario Monti used the downgrades to bolster his argument that austerity alone would not solve the crisis. Europe needs to support “national efforts in favor of growth and employment,” Mr. Monti told the newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore, according to Bloomberg News.

Standard Poor’s, saying it doubted whether European leaders yet had a grip on the debt crisis, cut its ratings for Cyprus, Italy, Portugal and Spain by two notches Friday, and lowered those of Austria, France, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia by one notch.

On Saturday, S. P. defended its decision. “They have not achieved a solution that is sufficient in size or scope,” the S. P. analyst Moritz Kraemer told reporters in a conference call, according to The Associated Press.

The downgrades did not come as a surprise and were somewhat less severe than expected. In recent weeks, there have been a few hopeful signs in Europe, including economic indicators that were better than expected, successful bond sales by countries like Italy, and a more forceful response from the European Central Bank.

“This may be why some of S. P.’s actions have not been as dramatic as hinted at in early December,” Laurent Fransolet, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London, wrote in a note to clients.

S. P. praised the European Central Bank, which has flooded banks with cheap loans to prevent a credit squeeze. “We believe that euro zone monetary authorities have been instrumental in averting a collapse of market confidence,” the agency said in a statement Friday.

Spared a cut were Belgium, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. They were among euro zone countries placed on “credit watch with negative implications” by S. P. in December.

Still, the downgrades were hardly good news, especially since moves by one ratings agency have often been followed by others. The S. P. action adds to the pressure on European leaders, and strengthens Mrs. Merkel as she pushes her peers to increase austerity measures.

“Germany comes out as a clear winner and will have its position at the negotiating table strengthened even further,” Royal Bank of Scotland analysts said in a note.

Mrs. Merkel said the downgrades showed that euro zone countries had a lot of work to do to restore investor trust. She also said Saturday that Europe should get its permanent rescue fund, known as the European Stability Mechanism, in operation sooner.

In line with Mrs. Merkel’s call for a closer eye on budgets, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain on Saturday pledged spending cuts and a banking-system cleanup.

“We live in a difficult moment,” Mr. Rajoy said in a speech to a convention of the People’s Party in Malaga, according to Bloomberg News. “The government that I lead knows exactly what it has to do to improve the reputation of Spain and to grow and create jobs.”

Other leaders sought to talk down the effect of the downgrades, which were expected.

“This decision is a warning that should not be turned into a drama any more than it should be underestimated,” the French prime minister, François Fillon, said, according to Reuters, adding, “The drifting off course of our public finances in the last 30 years is a major handicap for growth and employment, as well as for our national sovereignty.”

Opposition leaders sought to exploit the downgrade. François Hollande, the Socialist candidate for president of France, said the incumbent president, Nicolas Sarkozy, made preservation of France’s top rating “an obligation for his government.”

“This battle has been lost,” Mr. Hollande said at a news conference, Reuters reported. He said that it was Mr. Sarkozy’s policies, not France, that had been downgraded.

While the downgrade is a blow to France’s prestige, Italy may be the country most affected because it must refinance a large amount of debt this year.

“In normal times, this is all possible,” Ewald Nowotny, governor of the central bank of Austria, said on Austrian radio, according to Reuters. “In very nervous and difficult times, it can be a problem, and in my view, this sharp downgrade of Italy is probably one of the most difficult and problematic aspects of this sweeping blow from the ratings agency.”

S. P.’s action provoked indignation among some officials. “I am astonished at the moment that S. P. has chosen to downgrade euro zone countries,” Michel Barnier, European commissioner for internal market and services, wrote on Twitter. “Its evaluation does not represent current progress.”

Mr. Barnier has been a leader of efforts to impose stricter regulations on ratings agencies.

Maria Fekter, the Austrian finance minister, said, “The downgrade is bad news for Austria,” according to Reuters. “But it should wake everyone up when such a thing happens.”

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/15/business/global/after-downgrades-european-leaders-argue-for-both-austerity-and-stimulus.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

European Markets Start Higher for the Week

European markets rose and Wall Street was poised for a higher open Monday as hopes the Federal Reserve might take action to keep the United States from slipping back into recession offset fears of a global slowdown.

Brent crude fell to near $106 a barrel as Libyan rebels captured most of Tripoli, bolstering hopes that oil exports from the OPEC country could resume soon.

Investors in Europe and the United States appeared to recover from a spout of panic selling late last week, when they dumped shares and bought up save-haven assets like gold and the Swiss franc amid concerns about the health of the American and global economies.

However, analysts warned that markets would likely stay volatile in the coming weeks as worries remain about levels of bank funding without a lasting solution for Europe’s debt troubles.

In London, the FTSE 100 jumped 1.1 percent while the DAX in Frankfurt inched up 0.4 percent. The CAC 40 in Paris gained 1.5 percent.

Wall Street was also set to open higher.

The improved mood came following a jittery day of trading in Asia, where most markets closed in the red.

Throughout the week, investors will be looking with anticipation to a speech Friday by the Federal Reserve chairman Ben S. Bernanke at a retreat in Wyoming.

The Fed pledged earlier this month to keep interest rates super-low through mid-2013. Investors wonder whether Bernanke will announce, or at least preview, further steps to help the economy including a third round of bond purchases known as quantitative easing.

“Given the absence of deflation risk, we do not expect him to announce QE3,” analysts at UniCredit in Milan wrote in a note, referring to a new round of bond buying. “But he is likely to reiterate that the Fed is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed.”

With no crucial economic indicators scheduled for Europe Monday, investors will be looking at the European Central Bank’s disclosure of how much money it spent on government bonds from struggling countries like Italy and Spain last week. Analysts expect the figure to reach around 15 billion euros or $21.6 billion, down from a record 22 billion euros or $28.8 billion the week before.

Even though most economists see the central bank’s purchases as only temporary sticking plaster in the euro zone’s fight against the debt crisis, they have succeeded in keeping the yields, or interest rates, on Italian and Spanish 10-year bonds below 5 percent, more than a percentage point below record levels seen in the week before the ECB resumed its bond buying program.

Over the weekend, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and the president of the European Union Herman Van Rompuy both ruled out the introduction of eurobonds — debt backed by all 17 euro countries — anytime soon, squashing investor hopes that a more lasting solution to the currency union’s debt troubles may be in the works.

Germany’s finance minister, meanwhile, sought to calm fears that growth in Europe’s biggest economy was running out of steam, saying the Germany economy was still on course to grow by 3 percent this year despite an unexpectedly weak second-quarter performance.

Earlier in Asia, markets ended the day mostly in negative territory, as investors reacted to a steep sell-off of U.S. stocks Friday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index lost 1 percent to close at 8,628.13 — a five-month low — as a persistently strong yen rattled nerves. A strong yen hurts exports by making them more expensive.

Japan intervened in currency markets earlier this month to try to reverse the yen’s climb. The decision to sell the yen and buy the dollar worked initially, sending the greenback toward 80 yen. But the dollar has been weighed down by the dimming outlook for U.S. economy and is back down to mid 76-yen levels.

The Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.7 percent to 2,515.86 while the Shenzhen Composite Index lost 0.9 percent to 1,124.17. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, meanwhile, swung into positive territory to eke out a 0.5 percent gain at 19,486.87.

Asian markets were the first to open after the developments in Libya, with the apparent crumbling of Moammar Gadhafi’s regime after rebels entered the capital of Tripoli on Sunday. Oil prices are expected to fall if the situation can quickly stabilize.

In London, Brent crude for October delivery dell $2.22 per barrel to $106.40 on the ICE Futures exchange.

Benchmark oil for September delivery, however, was up 5 cents to $82.31 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Libya used to export about 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, but production all but ground to a halt in recent months as rebels battled to overthrow Gadhafi.

In currency markets, the dollar dipped to 76.78 yen, while the euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.44.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=a17246fadf9874b528ad85d4f6291b52

Economix: Still Playing Catch-Up, Across the Economy

Given that the downturn began nearly four years ago, and that the population has grown significantly since then, the economy should instead be bigger than it was before the financial crisis. But Calculated Risk, a finance blog, makes a good observation: On most major measures of economic health, the economy is still worse today than it was before the recession began.

CATHERINE RAMPELL

CATHERINE RAMPELL

Dollars to doughnuts.

Here’s a chart I’ve put together showing the percentage changes in several important economic indicators since the start of the recession in December 2007. The categories are: overall economic growth (gross domestic product), jobs (nonfarm payrolls), personal income (without transfer payments from the government, like unemployment benefits), the length of the workweek, personal spending, and industrial production.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, all via Haver Analytics

As you can see, all of these categories but one are still below where they were when the recession began. Industrial production is by far the worst off, since an index of this activity is nearly 8 percent below its level in December 2007. Second-worst is employment; today there are 5 percent — or about seven million — fewer payroll jobs than there were when the recession began.

Inflation-adjusted personal income and gross domestic product are still below the last business cycle peak, as is the average work week.

The one major indicator shown that is (barely) above its level at the start of the recession is inflation-adjusted consumer spending. Much of that growth has been subsidized by government transfer payments, however. And to further rain on this parade, remember that if the economy were healthy, consumer spending would probably be much higher today than it was before the recent recession. Just take a look at the longer-term trend:

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisFigures on left axis are expressed in “chained” dollars — inflation-adjusted, in 2005 dollars.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=3cb3379491255cf19144e88efffae5ae