November 15, 2024

Political Economy: Returning Some Powers to E.U. Members

The European Union is facing a crisis of legitimacy. This is evidenced in a decline in support for the E.U. among citizens in pretty much every member country. The most extreme expression is in Britain, where pressure is mounting to quit the E.U.

There are two main schools of thought about how to restore trust in Brussels. One is to increase the direct say citizens have over what the European Commission does — say by giving yet more power to the European Parliament or by having a directly elected European Commission president. The other is to stop Brussels from interfering in things best left to nation-states.

The former school of thought is based on a misconception. The E.U. does not have a demos, or common people: few Europeans feel European rather than Italian, German, French or whatever. Witness the low turnout for European Parliament elections. Trying to construct a democracy without demos is artificial and will not solve the legitimacy problem.

The better option is to decentralize decision-making to nations. That would move power closer to the people.

This is the thinking behind the Dutch government’s recent call for an E.U. based on the principle of “European where necessary, national where possible.” It concluded that the time of an “ever closer union,” a key phrase in the E.U. treaty, in every possible policy area is over. The U.K. government’s review of the commission’s “competences” — a word for its powers, not for whether it is discharging them competently — is motivated by a similar desire.

The question, then, is how to bring about decentralization. A popular demand by many British Conservatives is to repatriate competences from Brussels to London. Britain already has opt-outs from the single currency, banking union and home affairs matters. Some other countries also have opt-outs.

The snag is that it is one thing to secure an opt-out when a new power is being transferred to Brussels; quite another to get it back. This is because a country can veto losing a power but any other country can veto its return. What is more, if countries could cherry-pick which bits of E.U. law they wanted to follow, the union could unravel. Even the Dutch are not calling for opt-outs.

Some senior British Conservatives are, therefore, no longer pushing hard for unilateral repatriation of competences. William Hague, the foreign minister, said last week that Britain should try to reform the Union for the benefit of all, not just for Britain.

How, though, to achieve this? Part of the answer is to realize that decisions can be decentralized even without shifting competences away from Brussels.

The E.U. treaty already contains two relevant principles. One is “subsidiarity”: the idea that decisions should be taken at the most decentralized level of government consistent with effective action. The second is “proportionality”: the idea that E.U. legislation should be the minimum required to achieve a particular goal.

If these two principles were properly followed, there would be far less concern about Brussels’ meddling in things that are none of its business — for example, its attempt this year to ban olive oil jugs in restaurants. Fortunately, it backed down after an outcry.

The snag is that subsidiarity and proportionality are highly subjective, said José de Areilza, law professor at Spain’s Esade university. It is, therefore, extremely hard to use them to bring a successful court action against E.U. institutions for overstepping their authority.

That does not mean, however, that the politicians and bureaucrats could not themselves agree to decentralize decisions where possible. This year, for example, the E.U. altered its fisheries policy to give some power back to countries.

But this will not always succeed, because both the commission and the European Pariament have an incentive to accumulate power at the E.U. level. Further action should, therefore, be taken to breathe life into the subsidiarity and proportionality principles.

One idea could be to tighten up their definitions so governments could bring actions against E.U. institutions if they meddled in things they should avoid — though some experts, like Mr. Areilza, think the concepts will always be too slippery to use for legal purposes.

Another idea, favored by Open Europe, the British research organization, is to institute a system of “red cards,” giving national parliaments the ability to strike down commission proposals on the grounds that they contravene subsidiarity or proportionality. There is already a “yellow card” under which the commission has to reconsider a proposal if at least a third of national parliaments object.

A variation on the theme would be to give parliaments the ability to force the commission to review existing legislation, not just new rules. Of course, it might still be impossible to repeal laws if the European Parliament refused to play along. But, if enough national parliaments objected, their greater legitimacy might force the issue.

Breathing life into subsidiarity and proportionality would not be a complete solution to the Union’s legitimacy problem. Something special needs to be done to give countries that do not use the single currency confidence that the euro zone will not discriminate against them by acting as a bloc. The commission itself needs to be more effective at disciplining fraud and ensuring that governments stick to the rules of the game once they are agreed. Unless there is serious change on these lines, the peoples of Europe could well become increasingly disgruntled with the European project.

Hugo Dixon is editor at large of Reuters News.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/22/business/global/returning-some-powers-to-eu-members.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

In New Euro Boss, a Hard-Line Future

This was not Greece, after all. And though the financial press had been chronicling SNS Reaal’s troubled real estate portfolio, the adviser in Athens chose to accentuate the positive: The Netherlands has a strong economy, with a government that had always stood behind the country’s too-big-too fail financial institutions. And SNS, one of biggest Dutch banks, was offering a mouthwatering return of 6 percent a year.

“It seemed safe,” Mr. Zannakis recalled. “What could go wrong?”

Plenty, as it turned out. On Feb. 1, the Dutch government seized SNS to keep it from collapsing under the weight of those problem real estate loans. And in a drastic action, unprecedented in the five-year-saga of euro zone bank bailouts, the Dutch finance minister decreed: Bondholders like Mr. Zannakis would be wiped out.

This would be no mere “haircut” of the sort in which bond investors would take a partial loss, as has mostly happened since 2010 when euro zone governments have bailed out banks in Ireland, Greece and Spain. In such instances, taxpayers have taken the main financial hit.

In this case, Mr. Zannakis would lose the entire €50,000, or $65,000, he invested in SNS bonds only two weeks earlier, as part of a class of junior bondholders who saw a total of €1.8 billion disappear into the Dutch government’s ledger.

Suddenly, the rules seem to have changed — with potentially unpredictable implications for Europe’s banks and their investors.

What makes all of this much more than a Dutch novelty is the new clout of the country’s finance minister, Jeroen Dijsselbloem. Mr. Dijsselbloem has just been voted head of the Eurogroup, the powerful club of 17 national finance ministers who effectively set financial policy for the euro currency union.

There is a new financial sheriff in the euro zone, in other words. And his disciplinarian bent could hold tremendous sway as the euro zone continues to work through a to-do list of bank bailouts, including ones now pending in Italy and Cyprus. The Dijsselbloem doctrine could mean that bondholders of failing Italian banks or — even more radically, bank depositors in Cyprus — may end up absorbing steep losses if euro zone members are called upon to prop up the institutions.

“The direction of travel is clear: bailing in as opposed to bailing out is going to be the new normal in the euro area,” said Mujtaba Rahman, a European analyst at Eurasia, a research group based in New York.

In a positive light, this new rigor could make banks and their investors less willing to make risky bets — to the betterment of European banking. The downside is that it could become even harder for euro zone banks to tap skittish bond investors for new money as banks struggle to recover from the twin shocks of the global financial crisis and the subsequent European debt debacle.

That potential drawback is why Mr. Dijsselbloem, in a letter to the Dutch Parliament explaining his punishment of the SNS junior bondholders, said he had not also imposed losses on investors holding senior debt, even though he acknowledged he was tempted to do so. Those who hold senior bonds stand in line ahead of junior bondholders to get repaid if a bank fails, which is why those securities are deemed less risky and carry a lower interest rate. Dutch banks in particular rely on senior bonds to finance their operations.

Mr. Dijsselbloem’s office declined an interview request. But some government debt experts agree with him that making more of a bank’s investors share the pain of a collapse is the prudent way to proceed in any future bank bailouts in the euro zone.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/09/business/global/in-new-euro-boss-a-hard-line-future.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Off the Charts: Industrial Production Sags, and Even Germany Is Affected

Figures reported this week showed that industrial production in the euro zone fell 2.5 percent in September from the previous month, the largest monthly decline since January 2009, during the worst part of the credit crisis. Production in Germany was off 2.1 percent.

Although the figures are seasonally adjusted, they can be volatile. But the longer-term trend was poor even before the September figures came in.

The accompanying charts show year-to-year changes in industrial production, using three-month moving averages to smooth out some volatility, among advanced economies as a group, in the euro zone and five major countries.

The Dutch government compiles industrial production figures from around the world. In August, the total for advanced economies was lower than it had been a year earlier, something that had not happened since 2009, although the three-month average, as shown in the chart, remained a little higher.

The September figures for some countries will not be out until the end of this month, but it seems likely they will show a drop as well.

“Germany has slowed because weak global demand, particularly for the major machinery that Germany exports, is creating lower demand for Germany’s exports,” wrote Greg Jensen of Bridgewater Associates, a hedge fund and advisory firm. He said German companies were accumulating large inventories and their profits were suffering.

There are exceptions to the world pattern. Chinese industrial production continues to rise at a rate of more than 9 percent a year. While that is down from last year, it remains good. On Friday, the Federal Reserve reported that industrial production in the United States slipped in October by 0.4 percent, the second decline in the last three months, although the Fed said it would have been close to unchanged but for the effects of Hurricane Sandy. The annual growth rate is down to less than 3 percent.

But the declines have spread to some developing countries. Brazil’s production is running about 3 percent below that of a year earlier, and Indian production is basically flat compared with a year earlier.

It is not clear how much of the weakness in industrial production represents a real weakening of demand and how much reflects inventory issues. During the credit crisis, production fell much more rapidly than final demand, as companies found it hard to get financing and worried that their customers would be unable to pay for what was being shipped. Much of the revival in 2010 reflected pent-up demand, and some of the current slowing may simply show that depleted inventories have been replenished.

But the declines also provide an indication of continuing problems, particularly in some of the European countries most in need of a growing economy.

Greece’s industrial production was never large to begin with, but it is now lower than at any time since the figures began to be compiled in 1995, and is down about a third from its peak, set back in 2000.

Italian production appeared to recover in line with that of other countries in 2010, but has since weakened appreciably. For much of this year, it has been down more than 6 percent from the previous year. Spain’s production has fallen almost as rapidly.

Floyd Norris comments on finance and the economy at nytimes.com/economix.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/17/business/economy/industrial-production-sags-and-even-germany-is-affected.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

DealBook: ING to Sell Canadian Unit to Scotiabank for $3.1 Billion

Rick Waugh, left, chief of Scotiabank, and John Mayberry, the bank's chairmanMichael Creagan/ReutersRichard E. Waugh, left, chief of Scotiabank, and John T. Mayberry, the bank’s chairman.

The ING Group said on Wednesday that it would sell its Canadian unit to Scotiabank for about $3.1 billion in cash, as the Dutch bank continues to sell assets to pay for its government bailout.

The transaction comes a year after ING agreed to sell its ING Direct online banking unit in the United States to Capital One Financial for about $9 billion, in one of the largest banking deals since the financial crisis.

ING said this year that its primary goals remained bolstering its Tier 1 capital ratio and repaying the rescue of 10 billion euros that it received from the Dutch government in 2008.

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The deal on Wednesday will give Scotiabank control of one of Canada’s 10 biggest banks: The ING unit has $30 billion in deposits and 1.8 million customers. The ING business also has what it describes as a strong home loan portfolio, with 59 percent of the mortgages insured. And for uninsured mortgages, the loans cover about half the price of the purchased property.

Yet the business’ low-margin model deterred some would-be buyers from bidding for the unit.

In a nod to the ING unit’s strong consumer brand awareness, Scotiabank said that it would keep the division’s ING Direct name.

“Scotiabank is committed to preserving what ING Direct’s customers have come to love about it,” Anatol von Hahn, Scotiabank’s group head of Canadian banking, said in a statement. “ING Direct will continue to operate separately and customers will be able to interact the way they do now using their existing account numbers and passwords, served by the same familiar team.”

Scotiabank said that it would stay within its Tier 1 capital ratio of 7 percent to 7.5 percent through the first quarter of next year.

The Canadian bank will finance the deal in part by issuing 29 million shares at $52 each, raising about $1.5 billion in new equity. That stock sale could be expanded up to $1.7 billion if demand proves strong enough.

Shares in Scotiabank fell 2.6 percent in after-hours trading, to $52.75. They have risen about 1 percent over the last 12 months.

The deal is expected to close by December, pending regulatory approval.

Scotiabank advised itself, while ING was advised by JPMorgan Chase.

Ian Austen contributed reporting.

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/08/29/ing-to-sell-its-canadian-unit-to-scotiabank-for-3-1-billion/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Dutch Widen Inquiry Into Hacking of Official Sites

BERLIN — The Dutch government said Tuesday that it was widening its investigation into the hacking of official state Web sites in an attempt to learn whether the private data of Dutch citizens, many of whom file income tax returns online, had also been compromised.

The Dutch data protection agency, OPTA, has asked the government security contractor at the center of the controversy, DigiNotar, to report whether the integrity of a special class of digital certificates known as qualified certificates, which guarantee the authenticity of computer users interacting with government computers, had been breached.

“We are hoping to receive an answer from DigiNotar within a few days,” said Harriet Garvelink, a spokeswoman for OPTA in The Hague, who said the request was made Friday.

The hacking scandal in the Netherlands, one of the most digitally advanced countries in Europe, erupted last week when DigiNotar disclosed that several of its digital certificates — so-called SSL certificates, which guarantee the authenticity of Web sites — had been stolen by an unknown hacker in July. An independent report released Monday by the Dutch government traced the origin of the stolen certificates to a computer user in Iran.

“DigiNotar found evidence on July 28th that rogue certificates were verified by Internet addresses originating from Iran,” said the report prepared by Fox-IT, a company in Delft, the Netherlands, that the Dutch government hired to investigate the breaches. A copy of the report was posted on the site of Vasco Data Security International, DigiNotar’s parent company.

The report appears to link the theft of the certificates from DigiNotar to a security breach reported by Google in the past week. In its security blog on Aug. 29, Google reported that several users “primarily located in Iran” had been targeted by the hacker using a fraudulent certificate issued by DigiNotar.

If a qualified certificate has been breached, a hacker could impersonate the computer identity of another user to try to gain access to their private information.

The Google incident prompted DigiNotar to come forward with the security violation. The Fox-IT report found that DigiNotar discovered 333 fraudulent “rogue certificates” circulating from July 19 to July 28, many of which were for major Internet companies. The company subsequently revoked and invalidated the certificates.

The Dutch interior minister, Piethain Donner, told members of Parliament on Tuesday that the government so far had no evidence that the hackers had used stolen certificates to obtain the personal information on Dutch citizens from government’s Web sites.

Vincent van Steen, a spokesman for Mr. Donner, said the interior ministry was examining the procedures used by the government in overseeing the contractors that issue SSL certificates to learn more about how the intrusion occurred and how to prevent a future attack. “This matter shows us how vulnerable we are,” Mr. van Steen said.

Several security experts have speculated that the Iranian government may have orchestrated the hacking, which would have required the control of an Internet service provider, to spy on its own dissidents. The Iranian government has not commented on the situation.

DigiNotar, a unit of Vasco Data Security International, which is based in Oakbrook Terrace, Illinois, has been criticized by Dutch lawmakers for not immediately informing the government of the certificate theft. Dutch prosecutors told The Associated Press on Tuesday that they were investigating DigiNotar for possible criminal negligence.

Vasco said in a statement that it was cooperating with the Dutch government. In a separate statement issued Sunday, the company sought to reassure its own clients that the verification technology of DigiNotar, which Vasco acquired in January, had not yet been fully integrated into its own digital security products.

DigiNotar’s belated disclosure of the theft prompted OPTA to expand its inquiry into the incident and ask DigiNotar whether qualified certificates had also been breached. The qualified certificates check a computer’s unique I.P. address to verify the identity of the person or body interacting with the Dutch government.

Under Dutch law, OPTA each year hires an outside auditor to monitor the performance of DigiNotar and its verification of qualified certificates for Dutch government Web sites, Ms. Garvelink said. The last audit, which was conducted this year by PriceWaterhouseCoopers, found no irregularities, she said.

Relations between the Netherlands and Iran are strained. Earlier this year, Iran, over the objections of the Dutch government, hanged a Dutch-Iranian woman accused of participating in demonstrations and drug smuggling.

In April, an Iranian asylum seeker who was being extradited to Iran set himself on fire and died in Amsterdam. The Iranian embassy in The Hague criticized the Dutch government over the incident.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/technology/dutch-widen-probe-into-hacking-of-official-sites.html?partner=rss&emc=rss