BEIJING — Chinese exports soared beyond forecasts to rise by a fifth in February from the level of a year ago, data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed Friday, a sign that the country’s modest economic revival is intact and a suggestion that global demand might also be on the mend.
Chinese imports, however, were surprisingly weak, falling 15.2 percent from a year earlier to a 13-month low, the customs data showed.
Exports rose 21.8 percent in February from a year earlier. A Reuters poll of 22 economists had forecast that February exports would grow 10.1 percent, while imports would fall 8.8 percent. Export growth to the United States was the strongest in a year, and export growth to the euro zone the strongest in 18 months.
The strength in China’s exports is apparent when the January and February performances are combined, to remove distortions from the Lunar New Year holiday — which came in January this year but was in February last year — when many factories are shut. Customs data on the two months combined showed exports rising 23.6 percent from the same period last year, while imports increased 5 percent. Analysts expected a 17.6 percent increase in exports and 10 percent growth in imports.
Chen Deming, the Chinese commerce minister, said Friday that he was hopeful that the country’s export sales would improve this year. “I myself am optimistic that trade growth will exceed last year’s 6.2 percent,” he said, without giving a forecast. He was speaking on the sidelines of China’s legislative session.
The buoyant Chinese exports contrast with sluggish growth in South Korea and Taiwan, two other trade bellwethers, casting doubt on the strength of any pickup in global demand. South Korean exports fell 8.6 percent last month, and shipments from Taiwan dropped by 15.8 percent.
Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Nomura, said the inconsistency might be explained by capital inflows. Chinese exporters might be overstating export revenues, while importers might be underreporting their trade to try to get around strict Chinese capital controls and bring money into the country. “Reported exports may be higher than they actually are,” Mr. Zhang said.
Still, on balance, most analysts were upbeat about the trade data, suggesting the figures indicated that a modest pickup in growth during the fourth quarter of 2012 had extended into 2013.
The stronger export figures were also supported by comments from Ningbo Port Group, one of the largest port operators in China. It is based in the Yangtze River Delta manufacturing hub.
“Our data in the first two months shows the foreign trade situation is improving,” Ningbo’s chairman, Li Linghong, said before the trade data’s release. Ningbo Port’s container volumes rose 13.6 percent in January and February from a year earlier, while cargo volumes increased 12.4 percent, Mr. Li said. “Usually the first two months are a peak season for companies to deliver orders, but it still shows the demand from the international market,” he said.
Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/09/business/global/china-posts-surprising-22-surge-in-exports.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
