April 25, 2024

Australia Prime Minister Fights Own Party to Stay in Office

The senior lawmaker, Simon Crean, who led the Labor Party when it was in the opposition from 2001 to 2003, told reporters at a hastily assembled news conference in the capital, Canberra, that he had personally asked Ms. Gillard to hold the ballot — known in Australia as a “spill” — because the party had lost its way and had no confidence in her leadership.

“Something needs to be done to break this deadlock,” he said.

A defiant Ms. Gillard quickly announced on the floor of Parliament that she would hold the ballot at 4:30 p.m. Thursday. In the meantime, she told her colleagues, “take your best shot.”

Ms. Gillard, who became Australia’s first female prime minister in a 2010 party coup that ousted Kevin Rudd, who was derided during his tenure for an authoritarian leadership style. But she has seen her poll ratings plummet since announcing in January, unusually early, that federal elections would be held in September.

Ms. Gillard has led a tenuous minority government since her parliamentary majority was diminished in a disappointing 2010 election. Although she beat back a leadership challenge from Mr. Rudd early in 2012, she has since slid in the polls against Tony Abbott, the leader of the opposition Liberal-National coalition.

Mr. Rudd has insisted that he would not challenge Ms. Gillard for the leadership, but his supporters, including Mr. Crean, seemed confident that Mr. Rudd would be nominated and would prevail in Thursday’s vote. “I wouldn’t be doing this if I did not believe there was the mood and the need for change within the party,” Mr. Crean told reporters when questioned on the internal vote count.

The vote comes after Ms. Gillard failed to salvage contentious media-oversight legislation that angered much of the Australian news industry and emboldened the political opposition.

The legislation, which was withdrawn Thursday morning for lack of support, had been proposed by Stephen Conroy, the communications minister, after an inquiry into news media practices that Ms. Gillard announced in 2011 at the height of the phone hacking scandal involving Rupert Murdoch’s media empire. Most episodes occurred in Britain, and no major allegations were proved against Mr. Murdoch’s Australian media holdings.

The new proposals — particularly the creation of a government post given responsibility for overseeing the news media’s self-regulatory bodies and determining whether media mergers can proceed — were greeted by some of Australia’s leading news media outlets with a scathing public campaign. “For the first time in Australian history outside wartime,” said Greg Hywood, the chief executive of Fairfax Media, which publishes The Sydney Morning Herald, “there will be political oversight over the conduct of journalism in this country.”

But Susan Forde, a professor of journalism at Griffith University, said the proposed media laws were “fairly weak and timid” and “certainly nothing to be concerned about in terms of our democracy and freedom.”

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/21/world/asia/australian-leader-tries-to-save-media-law.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Investor Fear Over Morgan Stanley Sharpens

As confidence in the soundness of some of the world’s biggest banks has fallen in recent weeks, investors have been selling off their shares of one financial institution after another.  

Now, the fears about Morgan Stanley are becoming especially acute. Investors are worried about the bank’s exposure to the European debt crisis, its ability to weather a turbulent trading environment and its reliance on short-term borrowing to finance its operations.

The bank and some analysts say the fears are unfounded. But the market drove Morgan Stanley shares down 10.5 percent on Friday to $13.51, and the stock has lost 41 percent in the last three months. That performance was par for the course in what was a bruising third quarter for the entire financial industry. Bank of America shares fell more than 44 percent. Citigroup shares dropped more than 38 percent, while even Goldman Sachs, considered the mightiest of the Wall Street giants, tumbled more than 28 percent.

It was also a brutal quarter for the broader stock market. The Standard Poor’s 500-stock index fell 14 percent from July to September, its worst performance since the fourth quarter of 2008 at the height of the financial crisis.

Almost everywhere they looked, investors saw trouble. In the United States, the Congressional deadlock over debt and the downgrade of the nation’s once-sterling credit rating rocked the confidence of consumers and businesses. In Europe, rising concerns about a potential Greek default and the inability of other governments to agree on a financial rescue plan surged through the markets. Grim data also pointed to a sharp slowdown in economic growth around the globe.

Now Morgan Stanley, which never regained the prestige and power it had in the years before the 2008 crisis, is quickly becoming a focal point for investors who fear that it may not be able to weather another financial storm

In another closely watched indicator of investor sentiment, the cost of buying protection against a default of Morgan Stanley bonds has soared. It now eclipses the cost of similar insurance on major French banks. Only a few weeks ago, the French banks came under heavy fire amid concerns that they were struggling to finance their operations.

Investors are now paying $449,000 a year to insure $10 million of Morgan Stanley bonds against a possible default in a sparsely traded market in what are called credit-default swaps. That is almost three times the cost in early June, but it is still well below the roughly $1.3 million a year it cost to insure Morgan Stanley bonds a few weeks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, according to pricing from Markit.

Among investors, the concerns are many. Some worry that the test could come from the company’s exposure to French banks. Others fear a liquidity crisis similar to what occurred in 2008 when banks like Morgan Stanley struggled to borrow the short-term debt that keeps them afloat. Still other investors expect the turbulent markets to take their toll on trading and investment banking results, which are the lifeblood of Wall Street.  

“It strikes me that everything seems to be O.K. with these guys,” said Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein Company, who is a former treasurer at Morgan Stanley. “I’m not arguing that we’re not seeing stuff in the credit-default swaps market that is pretty scary-looking. But they just don’t seem to be having any problems funding themselves.”

Some investors worry that Morgan Stanley may be too reliant on short-term borrowing or that it lacks a significant deposit base like those of the large commercial banks JPMorgan Chase or Bank of America. Others, however, note that Morgan Stanley has shifted much of its borrowing into longer-dated paper since 2006 and that its deposits have risen to $66 billion, from $28 billion.

Citing the quiet period before Morgan Stanley reports third-quarter earnings, a spokeswoman for the company declined to comment.

In recent weeks, analysts and investors have scoured obscure regulatory filings and reports, trying to determine what potential exposure Wall Street banks could have to troubled regions and institutions in Europe.

One filing that quickly gained attention in the market revealed that Morgan Stanley had one of the biggest exposures among Wall Street companies to the ailing French banks — about $39 billion at the end of last year, before factoring in offsetting hedges and collateral. Morgan Stanley has not provided investors with more up-to-date information.

But in a research note, Mr. Hintz said that Morgan Stanley had substantially reduced its exposure to French banks and estimated that it was now likely to be less than $2 billion, after factoring in collateral and hedges.

Investors also expect Morgan Stanley to report lackluster trading results, in line with many of its peers who have seen a slowdown in activity as clients have moved into cash.

After several periods of lackluster results, Morgan Stanley’s trading desks had a standout performance in the second quarter — besting even Goldman in challenging markets. Morgan Stanley’s financial statements showed that it was increasing its appetite for risk.

Now, some investors worry that Morgan Stanley may have turned too aggressive at just the wrong time. They are now girding for another round of dismal results — especially after JPMorgan warned in mid-September that its trading revenue could fall almost 10 percent from a year ago and now that Wall Street analysts expect Goldman to report a loss in the quarter.  

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=f68cdbab66bf82e52d8af4ff3ee0f974

DealBook: UBS and Deutsche Bank Results Underscore Anxiety Over Risk

Kacper Pempel/Reuters

FRANKFURT — Two of Europe’s largest financial institutions delivered a reminder on Tuesday that investment banking remains a fickle source of revenue, as UBS issued a profit warning and Deutsche Bank reported earnings that were below expectations.

UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank, warned that it would probably miss an earnings target set two years ago after its profit fell by half in the second quarter, in part because of a dismal performance at its investment banking unit. Deutsche Bank fared better, reporting a 6 percent increase in net profit that still missed forecasts. Revenue from trading fell because of uncertainty caused by Europe’s debt crisis, the bank said, while warning that profit from investment banking would fall short of targets.

The results may help reinforce Deutsche Bank’s decision on Monday to split its leadership between Anshu Jain, the head of its volatile investment banking business, and Jürgen Fitschen, a member of the management board with closer ties to the more stable retail banking business in Germany. They will succeed Josef Ackermann, who is expected to become chairman of Deutsche Bank’s supervisory board, in May.

While banks have experienced a recovery in investment banking profits since the financial crisis, they are under pressure by regulators to reduce risk, and they continue to face market turbulence caused by the European sovereign debt crisis and the budget deadlock in the United States. In addition, there are signs that growth is slowing in Europe.

Deutsche Bank has responded by putting more focus on its network of branches in Germany, while UBS is slashing costs.

“Banks’ returns have declined overall in the last 12 months, reflecting deleveraging and the actions being taken in advance of increased capital requirements,” Oswald J. Grübel, the chief executive of UBS, said in a statement.

UBS’s profit fell to 1 billion Swiss francs ($1.2 billion) in the three months through June, from 2 billion francs in the comparable quarter a year earlier, the company said. Pretax profit in the investment banking unit slumped to 376 million francs, from 1.3 billion francs in the same period last year.

UBS said in 2009 that it intended to reach a pretax profit of 15 billion francs by 2014. But Mr. Grübel said on Tuesday that goal “is unlikely to be achieved in the original time frame.”

Mr. Grübel added that UBS was “likely” to “book significant restructuring charges later this year” after a series of cost cuts.

Mr. Grübel has been focusing UBS on its main wealth management and investment banking activities to repair a bank that was among the hardest hit in the financial crisis.

But some analysts have recently started to doubt that Mr. Grübel’s plan would be enough. Its investment banking unit has continued to struggle, and the stricter capital requirements have hurt profitability.

A string of departures by bankers and lower appetite for risk among clients have hampered efforts to repair the unit.

UBS said Tuesday it plans to cut costs by as much as 2 billion francs over the next two to three years. At the same time, a decline in demand for its services because of a weaker economic outlook is expected to “constrain growth prospects.”

Deutsche Bank, the largest bank in Germany, said it increased revenue from noninvestment banking businesses such as retail banking, helping lift net profit to 1.2 billion euros ($1.7 billion). The numbers showed that Deutsche Bank was making progress in reducing its dependence on investment banking. Pretax profit in the corporate and investment bank was flat at 1.3 billion euros, while pretax profit from private clients and asset management more than doubled to 684 million euros, the bank said.

“Our efforts to recalibrate and rebalance our platform are paying off nicely,” Mr. Ackermann said in a statement.

Deutsche Bank said that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis has unsettled investors and led to lower sales and trading revenue, making it unlikely that the bank would meet its pretax profit goal for 2011 of 6.4 billion euros for the investment banking unit. However, the bank as a whole will still meet its full-year pretax target of 10 billion euros because of improved performance by the other units, Deutsche said.

Deutsche Bank also said it took a charge of 132 million euros to reflect the decline in value of its Greek bonds. It thus became one of the first European banks to recognize losses from Greece following a debt-relief agreement by European leaders.

“While the earnings environment remains tough for investment banks, Deutsche Bank has fared better than European peers and arguably faces lower short-term earnings risk,” Jon Peace, banking analyst at Nomura International, said in a note.

Late Monday, Deutsche Bank resolved a leadership crisis by saying that Mr. Jain and Mr. Fitschen will share chief executive duties. Mr. Ackermann, 63, has been chief executive since 2002.

Investors had favored Mr. Jain, 48, whose unit continues to supply by far the greatest share of profits, as chief executive. But Mr. Jain, a native of India who is not fluent in German, was regarded as not ready to assume the statesmanlike duties expected of the head of an institution that holds a prominent place in the nation’s identity.

Mr. Fitschen, 62, is expected to help overcome reservations by Deutsche Bank staff members about Mr. Jain.

Julia Werdigier reported from London.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=aa5049bc0a5be6b4e29327a0908b0510