April 25, 2024

It’s the Economy: Money Changes Everything

And economists will definitely have a theory about your happiness based on where you live. In collaboration with psychologists, a number of respected economists have spent much of the past decade or so mapping our levels of happiness across borders and daytime hours. Angus Deaton, an economist at Princeton University, is helping shape the movement to incorporate subjective measures of emotions into serious economic analysis. The goal is to use this new data to inform more traditional measures, like G.D.P. or the unemployment rate, and to influence government policy. Or at least that’s the idea.

Happiness quantification sounds a bit wishy-washy, sure, and through a series of carefully administered surveys across the globe, economists and psychologists have certainly confronted a fair number of sticky issues around how to measure, and even define, happiness. Still, some of the data make lots of anecdotal sense. Given that Nevada was ground zero for the housing bust, it’s not surprising that its citizens are less happy than Coloradans. Other findings, though, are more opaque. Why does western Long Island score several points higher on the happiness scale than most of Brooklyn? (Does being richer make you feel better than being cooler?) Why do Filipinos, who live in a relatively poor country, report such positive emotions?

Though still unrefined, happiness quantification has come quite a long way since 1974, when a University of Southern California economist named Richard Easterlin published an important paper that put the field on the map. His conclusion, known as the Easterlin paradox, stated that people do not become happier as they get richer. Around the same time, the Kingdom of Bhutan (population 738,000; average income, around $5,800) also began plans to measure what it called gross national happiness. These ideas might have had an impact, but nobody paid attention. “The general reaction of economists,” Easterlin told me, “was: ‘This is just subjective testimony that nobody puts any credit in.’ ”

Happiness studies became a hot discipline in the early 2000s, and France, Britain and other governments now conduct surveys of their own national levels of emotional well-being. It can be fairly instructive. Deaton, who advised the French government on its report, said, “The French are pretty miserable.” The United Kingdom’s Office of National Statistics reports only a slight happiness dip despite a deep recession. On the other hand, Bhutan’s happiness survey is so complex that I have no idea what the Bhutanese are feeling. Nonetheless, a United Nations committee has called upon the world’s governments to adopt happiness measures. A United States government panel is exploring the issue here.

As more data come in, however, many economists are becoming convinced of one significant change: the original Easterlin paradox doesn’t quite hold up. Broadly speaking, the data now indicate that as people get richer, they report getting happier too. Though it’s not quite that simple. Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan who helps advise the U.S. government on happiness statistics, told me that poor people in poor countries are not unhappy simply because they don’t have wads of cash. They are more likely to have fewer choices, more children who die in childbirth and other grave problems. And while wealthier nations are generally happier, there is no evidence, Wolfers says, that an artist would be happier if she became a hedge-fund trader.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/magazine/money-changes-everything.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Recession Crimped Incomes of the Richest Americans

WASHINGTON—Hold the condolence cards, but the recession cost the rich.

The share of income received by the top 1 percent—that potent symbol of inequality — dropped to 17 percent in 2009 from 23 percent in 2007, according to federal tax data. Within the group, average income fell by about a third, to $957,000 in 2009 from $1.4 million in 2007.

Analysts say the drop largely reflects the stock market plunge, and most think top incomes recovered somewhat in 2010, as Wall Street rebounded and corporate profits grew. Still, the drop alters a figure often emphasized by inequality critics, and it has gone largely unnoticed outside the blogosphere.

By focusing on the top 1 percent, the Occupy Wall Street movement has made economic fairness a subject of raucous street protest and ubiquitous political debate.

“It’s very interesting that this has become such a big topic now when the numbers are back to where they were in the 1990s,” said Steven Kaplan, an economist at the University of Chicago’s business school. “People didn’t seem to be complaining about it then.”

In 2009 the average income of the top 1 percent, adjusted for inflation, fell below its 1998 level, but remained well above where it was in 1990: $662,000.

While the protests follow the worst downturn since the Great Depression, inequality has been growing for three decades, driven by both economic and political forces. Globalization created larger markets for those with scarce talents but hurt less educated workers by pitting them against cheap foreign labor. New technology also hurt unskilled workers, by replacing many with machines.

Unions declined, eroding blue-collar bargaining power. The financial industry grew, with paydays heavily weighted toward the top. Corporate culture accepted the growing gap between the executive suite and the factory floor, and pay for chief executives soared.

Falling tax rates on the highest earners added to the net income divide, by allowing top earners to keep more of their pay and increasing their incentive to maximize it.

In the decades after World War II, by contrast, the average income of the top 1 percent grew only marginally faster than inflation and significantly slower than middle-class incomes. That combination caused inequality to decline throughout much of the 1950, ’60s and early ’70s.

As recently as 1980, only about one-tenth of the nation’s pretax income went to the top 1 percent. By 2000, that share had grown to about 22 percent. It slumped to about 18 percent in 2003, after a market crash, only to rebound by 2007 to levels not achieved since the Roaring ’20s.

Pointing to the recent declines at the top, Mr. Kaplan argues the Occupy protesters have accused the wrong villain by focusing on inequality, which he called an inevitable byproduct of robust growth. “If you want to reduce inequality, all you need to do is put the economy in a recession,” he said. “If you want the economy to do well, as all of us do, then you’ll get more inequality.”

But Harry J. Holzer, an economist at Georgetown University, argues much of the recent growth at the very top reflects insider privilege instead of real productivity.

“The notion that the really high earners are earning it has become very questionable,” he said. “Look at outrageousness of the damage they imposed on the rest of the economy and the cost being born by middle-income Americans.”

“There’s been rising income inequality all over the world, but nowhere as much as in the United States,” he said.

Critics of the Occupy Wall Street movement say the falling incomes at the top show that concerns about inequality are outdated.

“We don’t want to spend years focused on income inequality, only to learn that the financial crisis fixed it for us,” wrote Megan McArdle in a blog post for The Atlantic, called “The 1% Ain’t What It Used to Be.”

“Get a time machine, Occupy Wall Street,” wrote James Pethokoukis, a blogger at the American Enterprise Institute.

But Jared Bernstein, a former Obama administration official, said that after previous market-related dips, income inequality only soared to new highs.

“If you believed the inequality problem had been solved in the early 2000s, you would have been proven terribly wrong,” said Mr. Bernstein, now of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

While top incomes probably rose in 2010, most analysts doubt they returned to their 2007 peak, since stocks remain about 20 percent lower. Mr. Kaplan argues that new restraints on Wall Street will keep the income shares of the rich below those earlier levels, a view Mr. Bernstein disputes.

“The structural forces driving inequality remain very much in place,” he said.

The income shares of the top 1 percent became a common metric of inequality after a 2003 study by the economists Thomas Piketty and Emmanel Saez, which traced trends back to 1913. It peaked at 24 percent in 1928, just above its 2007 level. Mr. Saez, of the University of California, Berkeley, sides with those who think the rich will soon get richer.

“Barring an economic cataclysm ahead, top earners will be recovering faster than the other 99 percent,” he wrote in an e-mail. “The inequality problem is not going away and won’t until drastic policy changes are made (as happened during the New Deal).”

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=4b31361778607a7ad5a67fc32ce32adc

Economix: Podcast: Jobs, Wages and Middle-Class Costs

A drop in the unemployment rate and a jump in job creation must count as good news, but this is no time for celebration.

After all, at 8.8 percent, unemployment is still very high,even if the current rate is down slightly from 8.9 percent a month ago, and at the current pace of growth in jobs, a painfully large number of people will be out of work for years to come.

Still, as Michael Powell says on the new Weekend Business podcast and writes in The Times, there are some very positive signs embedded in the Labor Department’s monthly report. Manufacturing, for example, a downtrodden sector that has been in decline in the United States for decades, has been reviving in the economic recovery. Most sectors reported net job gains in March, and they occurred despite several global crises — the turmoil in the Middle East, the disasters in Japan and the debt problems in Europe.

In the United States, it’s tough enough to get a job in the current environment. It’s even tougher to get one that pays a living wage, as Motoko Rich observes in another discussion on the podcast. She talks about a new study, which she covered for The Times, indicating that many working people are unable to make ends meet.

The study, by Wider Opportunities for Women, a nonprofit group, found that a single worker needs an average income of $30,012 a year — or just above $14 an hour — to cover expenses and save for retirement and emergencies. That’s nearly three times the 2010 national poverty level of $10,830 for a single person, and nearly twice the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour.

Recent census data indicates that 14.3 percent of Americans were living below the official poverty line in 2009, and many working people are undoubtedly living below the income level defined in the study.

Robert Frank, the Cornell economist, looks at the cost of a middle-class existence in the Economic View column in Sunday Business. In the podcast, he notes that the most commonly used measure of average income — per capita gross domestic product, or G.D.P. — has gone up fairly steadily in the United States, but says it doesn’t give the full picture.

Among other shortcomings, he says, it doesn’t reflect the effects of growing income inequality. In reality, median wage earners now have a much heavier burden than those of previous generations, when you measure the work required to give a family an average home and children access to an average school.

The unusually tight synchronization of global financial markets is the subject of my Strategies column in Sunday Business, which I discuss with Motoko Rich on the podcast. Markets in various regions and for a range of asset classes — including stocks, bonds and commodities — have been moving together to a very extreme degree, recent studies have shown.

“Risk on, risk off” trading helps to explain some of this pattern. The phrase is trading jargon referring to a central decision these days — whether to hold high-risk, high-reward assets, or to move to a position of greater safety. Since the shocks of the financial crisis, this focus on risk has helped to increase the correlations of diverse markets, as has the growth of advanced communications and trading technologies.

The high correlation implies that many portfolios may be less well diversified than investors believe. In addition, financial institutions themselves may be exposed to greater risks than anticipated.

The podcast also discusses Tiger Woods’s stalled career in golf course design, which Paul Sullivan writes about on the cover of Sunday Business. He tells David Gillen that the troubles of the great golfer extend to his ventures in creating courses in the United States and abroad.

In the podcast’s news summary, I discuss a resignation at Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and the controversial trades that preceded it, the compensation of executives at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and a flare-up in the European debt crisis.

You can find specific segments of the show at these junctures: jobs report (33:13); news and wage study (26:47); Tiger Woods golf courses (19:48); Robert Frank (13:39); risk on, risk off (6:31); the week ahead (1:43).

As articles discussed in the podcast are published during the weekend, links will be added to this posting.

You can download the show by subscribing from the New York Times podcast page or directly from iTunes.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=0c0b29b1903e7111e85a1ec8e35e99d2