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Growth Returns to Factories in China

November 22, 2012 by Leave a Comment

HONG KONG — The Chinese manufacturing sector expanded in November for the first time in more than a year, according to the early reading of a business survey released Thursday, the latest sign that the Chinese economy might have skirted the sharp slowdown that many economists had earlier feared.

Greater demand for Chinese goods around the world and a series of domestic stimulus measures are trickling through the Chinese economy, breathing life into the giant factory sector. A monthly purchasing managers index published by the British bank HSBC rose from 49.5 in October to 50.4 in November, climbing above the threshold of 50 that separates expansion from contraction for the first time in 13 months.

The preliminary reading of the HSBC index is one of earliest indicators to shed light on the Chinese economy’s performance each month, and it is closely watched by economists and investors.

If confirmed by further economic data in the coming weeks, the improved performance would cement a picture that has been crystallizing for the past couple of months: that the slowdown in growth that buffeted China for much of the past year has now bottomed out.

Indeed, many analysts believe the Chinese economy has already put the worst behind it, and that the recovery is gaining traction.

The HSBC reading Thursday suggests that the “upswing in China — and by extension in the whole Asia-Pacific region — is gathering strength,” Klaus Baader, an economist at the French bank Société Générale in Hong Kong, commented in a note. The report, he added, “should further dispel fears of a hard landing.”

Relaxed restrictions on bank lending, accelerated infrastructure investment, and two small interest rate cuts over the summer have helped reinject some dynamism, analysts said. The housing sector has stabilized after suffering from government-mandated restrictions aimed at reining in soaring prices in recent years.

At the same time, overseas demand for exports also has improved somewhat in recent months and has led to a marked improvement in export orders, according to the survey published Thursday.

Analysts caution, however, against expecting a sharp bounce back to the double-digit annual growth rates seen before the global financial crisis.

The current recovery, Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC, said in a note accompanying the survey results Thursday, is still in its early stages. More policy easing is necessary to strengthen the recovery, especially given the still uncertain global environment, Mr. Qu commented.

The U.S. tax increases and spending cuts set to take effect in January and the euro zone debt crisis remain “a key risk factor in China’s road of economic recovery going into next year,” economists at J.P. Morgan said in a research note.

Many analysts expect the Chinese economy to grow at rates between 7 percent and 8 percent in the next few years.

The J.P. Morgan team, for example, forecasts 7.6 percent for this year, and 8 percent for 2013. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund forecast that expansion will tick up to a little more than 8 percent next year, from slightly less than 8 percent this year.

While that is well above the growth rates seen in Europe, Japan and the United States, such figures are well below the 9.3 percent expansion in 2011, and the 10.4 percent growth rate in 2010.

With a new leadership now taking the helm in Beijing, attention has also shifted to the longer-term issues that many economists say need to be addressed to keep China on a path of rapid growth.

The incoming leadership has already signaled that combating rampant corruption and addressing the environmental degradation caused by the headlong economic expansion of the past years are important priorities.

On the economic front, analysts say the economy needs to be weaned from the reliance on exports and investment in large infrastructure and other projects that underpinned past growth and the current recovery, toward more domestic and consumption-driven growth. China’s demographics — an aging population will cause the proportion of nonearners to soar in the coming years — will also present major challenges in the coming decades.

The final November reading of the HSBC purchasing managers index will be published Dec. 3, while the Chinese authorities will publish a string of economic data starting in early December.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/23/business/global/growth-returns-to-factories-in-china.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

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West’s Economic Slump Catching Up With Asia

November 23, 2011 by Leave a Comment

HONG KONG — Asia’s resistance to the West’s economic troubles is slowly wearing thin.

For much of this year, the economies of the Asia-Pacific region appeared to be blissfully isolated from the turmoil in other parts of the world. Asian stock markets fell along with those in the West, but the region’s economies continued to power ahead.

Within the past few weeks, however, cracks have emerged in the region’s mighty economies, and analysts and policy makers have become more concerned about the painful disruption that could spill into Asia as the situation in Europe continues to deteriorate and the United States struggles to pick up speed.

“The potential risks for Asia have increased” as the European crisis has moved beyond small peripheral economies like Greece, enveloping larger countries like Italy, Spain and even France, said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics at HSBC in Hong Kong. “It’s a whole different ball game now.”

The spreading economic troubles were underscored Wednesday when a closely watched gauge showed that Chinese manufacturing was contracting. The reading, published by HSBC, dropped from 51 in October to 48 in November, the lowest level in nearly three years and much lower than economists had expected. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.

The steep decline fanned worries about the spillover of the West’s problems into Asia. But it also reinforced nervousness about the effect in the opposite direction: the West increasingly needs a strong Asia to buy its goods as consumers at home stay on the sidelines.

The concern is that things are going to get worse before they get better.

“Europe is only at the beginning of its crisis,” said Pranay Gupta, chief investment officer for the Asia-Pacific region at ING Investment Management in Hong Kong. “Europe is now where the United States was three years ago: The economic contraction is only just beginning.”

So far, the economic pain in Asia has been relatively muted, and much of the region remains on course for growth rates that most Western nations can only dream of.

The Chinese economy is set to expand 9.5 percent this year, according to projections from the International Monetary Fund
last month. India is expected to grow 7.8 percent, Indonesia 6.4 percent, and many other Southeast Asian nations more than 5 percent, the I.M.F. estimates.

Those figures, however, are generally below the growth rates seen in 2010, and are likely to ease off further next year, the I.M.F. and most economists say.

Exports from Asia have been softening for months as demand in Europe, in particular, has slowed. Although many countries depend less on exports than they once did, the sector remains crucial for economies like those of Taiwan and South Korea and for the small, open economies of Hong Kong and Singapore, economists say.

Reacting to the worsening global environment, Indonesia and Australia have lowered interest rates in recent weeks. Most other central banks in the region have put off rate increases that seemed likely only months ago as they have become less concerned about inflation and more worried about growth.

In Japan, the pain has been compounded by the results of the devastating earthquake and tsunami of last March and by the persistent strength of the yen. Fanned by the economic difficulties in other parts of the world, the Japanese currency’s rise has made Japanese goods more expensive for shoppers abroad and has helped dent exporters’ profits.

With no room to lower already-low interest rates further, the government has resorted to direct intervention in the currency markets — selling yen for U.S. dollars — four times in little more than a year in its battle to weaken the yen.

In the financial sector, meanwhile, banks like HSBC, UBS and Nomura are cutting jobs around the globe. And although many would like to grow, rather than shrink, in the Asia-Pacific region, financial centers like Hong Kong and Singapore have not escaped the hiring freezes and job cuts.

“There are still pockets of hiring in the Asian financial sector, but it has got a lot tougher in recent months,” said Matthew Bennett, managing director at the recruitment firm Robert Walters in Hong Kong.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/24/business/global/wests-economic-slump-catching-up-with-asia.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

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Chinese Factory Index’s Decline Sends Asian Stocks Lower

November 23, 2011 by Leave a Comment

HONG KONG — A closely watched gauge of manufacturing activity in China slumped to its lowest level since March 2009, sending Asian stocks lower on Wednesday and highlighting how the turmoil in Europe and feeble growth in the United States are taking their toll on the giant Chinese economy.

The November purchasing managers’ index, released by HSBC, dropped to 48 this month, from 51 in October — a surprisingly steep decline that is likely to fan worries about the damaging spillover of the West’s problems into Asia, whose emerging economies are now one of the main engines of global growth.

Readings below 50 indicate contraction, and although the HSBC index has dipped below that level on several occasions this year, it had so far held up relatively well.

The sharp drop in November takes the reading to a level not seen since early 2009, when global economic activity was still reeling from the fallout of the global credit crunch after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Stock markets fell further in the Asia-Pacific region on Wednesday after the release of the index. The Kospi in South Korea closed 2.4 percent lower, and the Taiex in Taiwan tumbled 2.8 percent. The Shanghai composite index slipped 0.7 percent.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was down 2 percent in late afternoon trading. Japan was closed for a national holiday.

In Australia, whose commodity sector is heavily dependent on demand from China, the S..P./ASX 200 fell 2 percent. The Australian dollar also dropped after the HSBC index was released, last trading at $0.9775.

The euro edged down to $1.3468 from $1.3505 in New York trading.

European stock futures indicated that markets there would see losses at the open.

Persistently slow growth in the United States and Europe have undermined demand for Asian-made goods and prompted a steady fall in exports from the region. Although intra-Asian demand is helping to offset the decline from the West, exports to the United States and Europe remain a key driver of economic activity in many Asian nations.

Industrial output growth is likely to slow further in China in the coming months as both domestic and external demand cool, Qu Hongbin, chief economist for China at HSBC in Hong Kong, commented in a statement accompanying the index.

On the upside, inflation has slowed more rapidly than expected in China, leaving policy makers in Beijing with more room to take steps to support growth. This, Mr. Qu said, “should gradually filter through to keep China on track for a soft landing.”

Dariusz Kowalczyk of Crédit Agricole CIB said, “While the data should be interpreted cautiously because it has short history, and is not highly correlated with actual industrial output, it does point to significant deterioration of manufacturing sentiment and suggests the possibility of contraction in output.”

Economists are now expecting Beijing to loosen the reins on bank lending once again, and some even expect a cut in interest rates in coming months. Such steps would reverse some of the tightening undertaken over the past year, as Beijing strove to slow down growth and contain the inflation pressures that accompanied it.

The manufacturing index released by HSBC on Wednesday is a preliminary reading derived from a survey of the Chinese manufacturing sector in November, with a final reading published in about a week. The official government manufacturing survey also will be released next week.

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Stocks Rise on Economic Signals

August 23, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Stocks rose on Tuesday with indexes around the world advancing more than 1 percent, partly helped by stronger economic data in Asia and Europe. It was the second consecutive day of gains for many stocks after weeks of turmoil that were fueled by concerns about a curb in global economic growth and the widening impact of sovereign debt problems.

In early afternoon trading on Wall Street, the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index gained 23.19 points, or more than 2 percent, and the Dow Jones industrial average added 201.70 points, or 1.8 percent. The Nasdaq composite index added 62.05 points, or 2.63 percent.

The 10-year benchmark Treasury bond yield was mostly unchanged at 2.105 percent.

Stock markets in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region also mainly rose as investors interpreted a wide variety of economic statistics and awaited the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium later this week in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

“The market has got in its head that any help from policy makers is desperately needed,” said Robert Buckland, global equity strategist at Citigroup in London. “People are clearly looking at Jackson Hole.” It was at that gathering last year that the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, signaled further stimulus in light of a similar slowdown of the American economy.

Major European stock markets were up about 1 percent, after a survey of purchasing managers’ expectations for output in the euro area showed no change, at a nearly two-year low.

“The market was factoring in worst-case scenarios for the economic slowdown,” said Russell Price, senior economist with Ameriprise Financial. “Things have slowed down but are not falling off a cliff.”

In addition, a survey of manufacturers in China showed factory activity had probably contracted slightly in August. The findings underpin the widely held perception that the giant Chinese economy is growing at a more moderate, yet still robust, pace than many other places.

Mr. Price noted that the China purchasing managers index was also better than expected, and that current retail data in the United States might be offsetting some of the weaker data from other sectors of the economy.

“We are not continuing to decline to another double-dip,” he said, but “just enough to offset the worst-case scenario.”

But expectations grew that the fighting in Libya could last longer than expected, setting back hope for a recovery of oil output there. The price of oil rose 15 cents, to $84.57 a barrel.

The energy index on the S.P. was up more than 2.6 percent, propelled by shares in Exxon Mobil and Chevron, which rose 3 percent or more.

Materials shares, technology and consumer shares were up more than 2 percent. The financial sector was also up more than 2 percent despite the fact that the most widely traded share on the index, Bank of America, fell about 2.5 percent.

Economic data in the United States continued to document weakness in the housing sector. Sales of new homes fell for the fourth straight month in July, according to the Census Bureau. Although the report showed a bigger-than-forecast drop, the housing market was already weak, so it appeared to have little impact on the broader market.

“This year is shaping up to be the worst year on record for new home sales,” said Patrick Newport, United States economist for IHS Global Insight, in a research commentary.

“We do not see a reason for sales to pick up this year.  The economy is weak, uncertainty is up as is the likelihood of a recession, and foreclosures and delinquencies remain high,” he added.

Many analysts say that investors are waiting for clear statements from policymakers about what they are going to do about fiscal troubles in the euro zone and the economic headwinds in the United States.

The main focus of investor attention this week is the assessment of the American economy by Mr. Bernanke expected during the Fed’s symposium on Friday. Some Wall Street analysts said they expected the Fed to take some action — perhaps lengthening in maturity of the bonds it holds — to depress longer-term interest rates.

“The behavior of financial markets has become truly worrying, with stock market averages down sharply around the globe as heightened risk aversion has gripped markets,” Kevin Logan, chief United States economist at HSBC, wrote in a research note.

“A flight to safety, or alternatively, a disinclination to take risk can affect real economic activity as well as financial markets,” he cautioned. “A recession begins when thousands of independent decision makers all around the country decide to postpone hiring and capital investments, all in an attempt to protect cash positions and reduce risk of loss.”

Stock markets in South Korea and Taiwan saw gains of more than 3 percent by the close of trading, while the main market index in Australia rose 2.2 percent. In Japan, where investors, companies and policy makers remain on edge about the strength of the yen, the Nikkei 225 index closed 1.2 percent higher. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong gained 2.0 percent, while stocks in mainland China rose 1.5 percent.

With investors still intensely nervous after the roller-coaster ride of the past weeks, gold continued to push higher on Tuesday.

The precious metal, which is a traditional haven for investors in times of uncertainty, hit another nominal high during early Asian trading, topping $1,910 an ounce. By late afternoon in London, the price was hovering at around $1,883 an ounce.

Julia Werdigier reported from London. Jack Ewing contributed reporting from Frankfurt and Bettina Wassener contributed from Hong Kong.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=69048b3de134ef55b2621f8aeb84d2d3

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Starbucks Reorganizes for Growth

July 12, 2011 by Leave a Comment

The company said it would divide responsibilities for its business into three global regions: Asia, the Americas and a region containing Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Starbucks, the coffee giant, now has two units, the United States and international.

Three company executives have been appointed to lead the new regions.

Howard Schultz, chief executive of Starbucks, said the change would help maximize its opportunities in growing markets like China, Brazil and India.

Starbucks, which is based in Seattle, has nearly 11,000 stores in North America and almost 6,000 elsewhere.

It had a major slump in the recession after changing consumer habits and a rapid overexpansion. It slowed growth, cut jobs, closed stores and reorganized. Sales in cafes have rebounded, and the company is expanding its overseas and consumer products businesses.

The United States still generates most of its revenue. Nearly three-fourths of the $10.7 billion Starbucks brought in during its most recent fiscal year was from the United States. But Mr. Schultz said international business eventually would produce at least half the company’s revenue.

Starbucks is one of many consumer products companies looking overseas for growth as the middle class expands abroad. One of the biggest prizes in pure growth is China, Mr. Schultz said in an interview. Starbucks said it also planned to expand in India this fiscal year and in Vietnam the next year.

John Culver, who leads the company’s international business, will be president of the China and Asia Pacific region.

Cliff Burrows, president of Starbucks United States, will head the Americas region, which encompasses the United States, Canada, Mexico and Central and South America.

Michelle Gass, president of Seattle’s Best Coffee, was named president of Starbucks’ Europe, Africa and Middle East region.

Other changes announced Monday include transferring responsibility for Seattle’s Best to Jeff Hansberry, head of the company’s global consumer products and food service business. Annie Young-Scrivner, global chief marketing officer, will also oversee its Tazo tea business.

Starbucks said it would continue to push its consumer products, such as Via instant coffee, under the new management structure.

The company said the transition would be complete by September.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=3886406b2fc50ddb3bf4ecbd18095847

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Practical Traveler: How to Avoid Credit Card Problems Abroad

June 12, 2011 by Leave a Comment

“This is a big deal when traveling,” said Mr. Porter, who trekked back to his hotel to get cash, which he then had to exchange for local currency before returning to the train station to wait in a long line to pay for his tickets. He encountered similar problems at train stations in Belgium and Britain. “It just got super frustrating,” he said.

There may be some good news on the horizon for Americans like Mr. Elliot. A few banks have begun testing cards with the newer chip technology, known as E.M.V. (for Europay, MasterCard and Visa) and are beginning to offer the cards to select customers. Wells Fargo has issued cards with the embedded chips to about 15,000 United States-based clients who travel internationally, in a trial program. JPMorgan Chase is offering the cards to some of its high-net-worth customers this month. Meanwhile, Travelex, a major currency exchange company, began selling a preloaded E.M.V.-enabled debit card last year. Some credit unions have also begun offering credit or debit cards with chips, including the State Employees’ Credit Union of Raleigh, N.C., and the United Nations Federal Credit Union in New York.

It’s about time. Over the last decade, such cards (commonly referred to as chip-and-PIN cards because users punch in a personal identification number instead of signing for the purchase) have been widely adopted in Europe as a means to reduce credit card fraud; the information stored in the magnetic strips used in traditional cards can be stolen fairly easily. E.M.V.-enabled chip cards, requiring a PIN for authentification, are harder to counterfeit and are becoming the standard in other regions, including Canada, Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region. More than a third of the world’s payments cards (approximately 1.2 billion) are E.M.V. capable, along with roughly two-thirds of cashier terminals (18.7 million), according to EMVCo, the standards body owned by American Express, JCB, MasterCard and Visa.

But the United States has been slow to adopt the technology, mainly because of the expense merchants and banks would have to take on to convert to E.M.V.-enabled cards and cash registers. American banks also point out that fraud involving credit cards with magnetic strips hasn’t been as prevalent in the United States as it has in other countries. (Chip-and-PIN cards are different from the radio frequency chip  in some American credit cards, like the American Express Blue card, which allows customers to pay by waving their card at a check-out scanner, instead of swiping it.)

Until businesses change their minds, American travelers will continue to encounter payment issues abroad. The problem is two-fold. Even though most European cash registers are equipped to handle American cards, some cashiers simply don’t know how to process them. And many automated ticket kiosks like those commonly found at train stations, gas pumps and parking garages simply don’t accept cards without a chip and PIN. (A.T.M.’s typically recognize and accept many cards whether they have a chip or a magnetic strip.)

So what’s a traveler to do? Since the cards being tested by Chase and Wells Fargo are being offered only to a limited number of mostly high-end customers, the best option for the rest of us is to carry a couple of cards in our wallets and politely insist that the cashier keep trying to swipe each credit card, as the card reader may be able to recognize the magnetic strip and approve the purchase.

That’s what Richard Brill, a public relations executive from Wilmette, Ill., learned last month while on vacation in Portugal. “In some cases they’d redo it,” he said, referring to the merchants who were able to get their machines to accept his Visa card. When such attempts failed, he tried using his American Express card, which was accepted a number of times, even though it also lacked the special chip.

For backup, also consider carrying a preloaded debit MasterCard from Travelex called Chip and PIN Cash Passport, available in pounds or euros, which is equipped with the embedded chip. But use it only when you can’t use other cards. While it does not cost anything to use the card, the exchange rates you’ll get when loading it with cash aren’t great. For example, in late May, the exchange rate when putting funds into a Travelex Chip and PIN card online was about $1.50 to the euro. (It can be higher in actual Travelex stores.) By contrast, the spot exchange rate, charged by most banks, was roughly $1.42, according to Bankrate.com, a financial research site. Even after adding the 3 percent foreign exchange fee typically charged by major American card issuers, it was still more expensive to use a Travelex Chip and PIN card.

That said, there are some transactions — like buying train tickets at kiosks — for which you will need a Travelex card; remaining funds can be converted back to dollars after your trip.

Before you go, also consider buying tickets and other basic purchases online. For example, Vélib, the popular Paris bicycle rental system, whose rental kiosks have been known to reject cards without embedded chips, now accepts online payments for one- and seven-day tickets at velib.paris.fr. Rail Europe, which lets American tourists buy many European train tickets in advance, recently added local British train tickets to its online offerings at raileurope.com.

And when you return home, be sure to let your bank know about any payment problems. That just may be the best way to motivate them to issue chip-based cards to travelers.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=3160a21db28bd470a48e7f29451a7f86

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DealBook: HSBC Profit Up 58%

May 9, 2011 by Leave a Comment

HSBC said on Monday that profit rose 58 percent in the first quarter after the quality of its loan portfolio improved.

Net income rose to $4.2 billion from $2.6 billion in the period a year earlier, while charges for bad loans fell to $2.4 billion from $3.8 billion. Profit at its investment banking unit fell.

Stuart Gulliver, the chief executive, is scheduled to present a strategy overhaul to investors on Wednesday, including plans to reduce costs. Mr. Gulliver said on Monday that HSBC expected economic growth to slow this year from 2010.

“There remain a number of risks to the global recovery cycle in the short-term,” Mr. Gulliver said in a statement. “In the developed world, higher oil and food prices may slow the pace of recovery, while in emerging markets, higher inflation is dampening consumer sentiment.”

Earnings in Hong Kong and the rest of the Asia-Pacific region continued to grow in the first quarter even as the bank, which is based in London, spent more on employees and marketing. HSBC does not report more detailed profit figures on a quarterly basis.

HSBC continued to reduce its consumer finance portfolio in the United States and lending at its credit card business fell, the bank said. As a result, charges on bad loans fell by 30 percent. The business in North America remained profitable, but that profit fell 60 percent.

In Britain, HSBC set aside $440 million to cover possible claims by some customers that the bank had wrongly sold them a type of loan insurance. The step came after a British court ruled that several banks, including HSBC, were responsible to compensate customers. Barclays and the Lloyds Banking Group also provisioned for such costs.

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Asian Stocks Fall After S.&P. Warning

April 19, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Standard Poor’s, the credit ratings agency, lowered its outlook on the United States from stable to negative on Monday because of the country’s high budget deficits and rising government indebtedness. It also cited the “material risk that U.S. policy makers might not reach an agreement on how to address medium- and long-term budgetary challenges by 2013.”

S.P. did not actually downgrade the U.S. credit rating, and government officials in Japan on Tuesday voiced their support of the United States, saying that U.S. securities remained extremely good quality.

Still, S.P.’s statement sent brief jitters through the Treasury bond markets and spooked Wall Street, with the Dow Jones industrial average falling 1.1 percent Monday. In Europe, too, stocks fell steeply, dragged down by signs that the debt crisis in some of the continent’s periphery could be deepening.

The markets in the Asia-Pacific region followed suit on Tuesday.

In Japan, which is still struggling amid the turmoil caused by the disastrous earthquake and tsunami last month, the Nikkei 225 index was down 1.5 percent by the lunchtime break.

Singapore dropped 0.9 percent while South Korea was 0.8 percent lower. In Australia, the SP/ASX 200 index fell 1.3 percent.

The Hang Seng in Hong Kong sagged 1.4 percent by mid-morning, while the key index for mainland China was down 1.6 percent. In Taiwan, the Taiex fell 1.1 percent.

Despite the fundamentally good economic backdrop in many of the fast-growing Asian economies, investors are increasingly fretting about how policy makers will act to contain the mounting inflation that is plaguing much of the region.

The United States’ fiscal deficit and debt problems “are not the U.S.’s alone,” analysts at DBS in Singapore wrote in a research note on Tuesday.

“The rest of the world needs to come to terms that the U.S. can no longer sustain its role the consumer of last resort for the global economy indefinitely. Two years after the exit from the 2008 global crisis, there will be greater urgency for emerging markets, especially those with large surpluses, to focus and rely more on domestic demand for growth,” the DBS analysts commented.

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