November 18, 2024

DealBook: Pinterest on Wish List of Rakuten, Japan’s Amazon

Hiroshi Mikitani, the founder and chief of Rakuten, arrives for the Allen  Company conference in Sun Valley.Kevork Djansezian/Getty ImagesHiroshi Mikitani, the founder and chief of Rakuten, arrives for the Allen Company conference in Sun Valley.

SUN VALLEY, Idaho — Hiroshi “Mickey” Mikitani, the chief executive of Rakuten, would buy the rest of Pinterest — if he could.

Earlier this year, Rakuten, often dubbed the Amazon of Japan, led a $100 million investment in the social bookmarking site, at a reported $1.5 billion valuation. It was an eye-popping sum for a Web site that had no revenue and one that had also just raised money at a $200 million valuation just months before.

Mr. Mikitani says the price he paid was more than fair — and he wouldn’t mind buying more, assuming it came up for sale.

“I would love to buy,” he said during an interview with the New York Times at the Allen and Company conference on Thursday. “But I don’t think they would like to sell.”

So he’ll take what he can get. “We’re going to have a very good global strategic relationship with them, so that’s fine,” said Mr. Mikitani.

Some experts have questioned the merits of the Pinterest investment, which came on the eve of Facebook’s botched initial public offering. Indeed, the value of many Web companies have drifted lower in recent months. But Mr. Mikitani, who manages a personal Pinterest board, said he has real conviction in the fast-growing Internet start-up.

“There were very reasonable,” Mr. Mikitani said of Pinterest’s management team. “They were not greedy, they were not trying to inflate the valuation.”

Before making the investment, Mr. Mikitani said he considered Pinterest’s meteoric traffic, the quality of its membership base, the so-called “stickiness” of the site (the engagement of its users) and how the site helps retailers. As the head of such a big e-commerce platform, Mr. Mikitani said he was particularly impressed with Pinterest’s conversion rate, the number of users who made retail purchases after clicking on Pinterest links.

In recent years, Mr. Mikitani has been on an international buying binge.

His acquisitions include Linkshare and Buy.com in the United States and PriceMinister, the French e-commerce business. Last year, he added book e-reader Kobo to his bursting portfolio.

Mr. Mikitani is not done yet. He said he has benefited from the relatively strong yen, which has made international deals more palatable. However, he provided little detail on his wish list.

“If there’s a good opportunity, we will consider it,” he said. “Sometimes, great deals just pop up.”

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/07/12/pinterest-tops-wish-list-of-rakuten-japans-amazon/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Online Retailers Home In on a New Demographic: The Drunken Consumer

“I have my account linked to my phone, so it’s really easy,” said Tiffany Whitten, of Dayton, Ohio, whose most recent tipsy purchase made on her smartphone — a phone cover — arrived from Amazon much to her surprise. “I was drunk and I bought it, and I forgot about it, and it showed up in the mail, and I was really excited.”

Shopping under the influence has long benefited high-end specialty retailers — witness the wine-and-cheese parties that are a staple of galleries and boutiques. Now the popularity of Internet sales has opened alcohol-induced purchases to the masses, including people like Ms. Whitten, who works in shipping and receiving and spent just $5 on the cat-shaped phone cover.

Chris Tansey, an accountant in Australia, went shopping online after drinking late one night (to be precise, it was well into the morning). By the end of the session, he had bought a $10,000 motorcycle tour of New Zealand.

“The hang-ups of spending your hard-earned cash are so far removed from your life when you’ve had a bottle of wine,” Mr. Tansey said in an e-mail. The New Zealand trip was terrific, he said. But a pair of $3 sunglasses on eBay “turned out to be horrible fakes, with $17 of postage that I obviously didn’t see with beer goggles.”

Online retailers, of course, can never be sure whether customers are inebriated when they tap the “checkout” icon. One comparison-shopping site, Kelkoo, said almost half the people it surveyed in Britain, where it is based, had shopped online after drinking.

But while reliable data is hard to come by, retailers say they have their suspicions based on anecdotal evidence and traffic patterns on their Web sites — and some are adjusting their promotions accordingly.

“Post-bar, inhibitions can be impacted, and that can cause shopping, and hopefully healthy impulse buying,” said Andy Page, the president of Gilt Groupe, an online retailer that is adding more sales starting at 9 p.m. to respond to high traffic then — perhaps some of it by shoppers under the influence.

On eBay, the busiest time of day is from 6:30 to 10:30 in each time zone. Asked if drinking might be a factor, Steve Yankovich, vice president for mobile for eBay, said, “Absolutely.” He added: “I mean, if you think about what most people do when they get home from work in the evening, it’s decompression time. The consumer’s in a good mood.”

Nighttime shopping is growing over all. ChannelAdvisor, which runs e-commerce for hundreds of sites, says its order volumes peak about 8 p.m., and that shoppers are placing orders later and later: in 2011, the number of orders placed from 9 to midnight increased compared with previous years.

A recent array of nighttime offers sent to a shopper’s e-mail inbox included: from 6 to 9 p.m., a limited-quantity sale on fashions at Neiman Marcus; at 7:38 p.m., a promotion for three-day stays at Loews hotels; at 8:44 p.m., a promotion by Gilt for macaroons and faux-fur blankets; and at 2:23 a.m., an offer by Saks for a $2,000 gift card with purchase.

At QVC, the television shopping channel, traffic and viewers rise around noon, then quiet down until after 7 p.m. Then items like cosmetics and accessories sell briskly. “Call them girl treats — they seem to attract a really strong following once you get past dinnertime,” said Doug Rose, senior vice president for multichannel programming and marketing for the company. “You can probably come to your own conclusion as to what’s motivating her.”

Still, the nighttime spike requires delicacy among retailers: for reasons of propriety, they do not want to be seen as encouraging drunken shopping, and many people who inadvertently buy products in that state would most likely return them at high rates. On the other hand, a happy customer can lead to higher sales.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=cf5625a1d60435082c4c7151d4566fcf

Media Decoder Blog: The Year in Media | Where Will Borders’ Books and Customers Go?

Jeff Kowalsky/Bloomberg News

Staff members of The Times’s media news department are highlighting the most significant developments this year in the industries they cover.

Any fears that book publishers had about brick-and-mortar stores disappearing were confirmed by one cataclysmic event this summer: Borders went out of business. Painful as the news was, no one in the industry was shocked. The 40-year-old Borders had not made a profit in years, stopped paying its bills just after Christmas of last year, filed for bankruptcy in March and limped along until July, when it finally said it would liquidate. But the shock waves have reverberated throughout the industry ever since. Once the shelves at the remaining 400 Borders stores were dismantled (and sold, scrap by scrap, during going-out-of-business sales), publishers lost miles of space to display their books. And a no-longer-hypothetical question loomed: without bookstores, how would consumers figure out which books they wanted to read? Much of the Borders business has migrated to Barnes Noble and smaller bookstores, as well as online through Amazon.com. But publishers, who used to take the presence of brick-and-mortar stores for granted, are still figuring out how to prepare for a world with drastically fewer places to sell print books.

Earlier Media Moments

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=e732c7f9bc83e49a7eec6104d82c09ba

Steve Jobs Biography and Other Hot Titles Bookstore Lures

But the initial weeks of Christmas shopping, a boom time for the book business, have yielded surprisingly strong sales for many bookstores, which report that they have been lifted by an unusually vibrant selection; customers who seem undeterred by pricier titles; and new business from people who used to shop at Borders, the chain that went out of business this year.

Barnes Noble, the nation’s largest bookstore chain, said that comparable store sales this Thanksgiving weekend increased 10.9 percent from that period last year. The American Booksellers Association, a trade group for independents, said last week that members saw a sales jump of 16 percent in the week including Thanksgiving, compared with the same period a year ago.

At the R. J. Julia bookstore in Madison, Conn., sales of adult trade books in November rose 30 percent over last year, said Roxanne J. Coady, the owner.

“Last year was just depressing,” Ms. Coady said by telephone. “It was the beginning of the e-reader, and we didn’t know what that meant. Somehow, this year, people are back to thinking of books as an appealing gift.” Considering the economy, she added, “Adult books being up right now feels crazy to me.”

Sales are up 15 percent from last year at Next Chapter Bookshop in Mequon, Wis., the store’s owner, Lanora Hurley, said, speculating that she may have been helped by the closing of a Borders store about seven miles away.

“We’re just going gangbusters and having a great time,” Ms. Hurley said, adding cautiously that she was concerned that it would not last. “I have to say, I’m worried about January. Everybody’s going to open their electronic device for Christmas.”

Analysts are predicting enormous sales for new e-readers and tablets from Barnes Noble and Amazon in the coming weeks (despite mixed reviews of Amazon’s new color tablet), a factor that has many in the industry concerned about the future of retail stores. The closing of Borders, the second-largest book chain in the country, is also expected to hurt publishers’ overall sales numbers.

Jamie Raab, the publisher of Grand Central Publishing, said there was “no question” that holiday sales would be hurt by the loss of Borders. “That’s like 650 stores that aren’t here,” she said. “The best way to get gift ideas is by roaming around stores. I think it’s a really dramatic loss.”

Nevertheless, booksellers and publishers said they were still hoping that there would be a healthy enough interest in print books that the two formats could coexist.

They have been closely watching the performance of print books this holiday season, which so far has not produced a monster surprise hit like last year’s “Autobiography of Mark Twain,” the 500,000-word best seller from the University of California Press that was rushed back to press six times by mid-November.

But there has been a rich selection of nonfiction, some booksellers pointed out, praising publishers for the breadth of biographies, histories and quirky pop-economics titles released this fall.

Popular biographies include “Steve Jobs” by Walter Isaacson; the critically acclaimed “Catherine the Great” by the historian Robert K. Massie; and “Spencer Tracy” by James Curtis; as well as memoirs from Diane Keaton, Regis Philbin and Gabrielle Giffords, the Democratic congresswoman from Arizona who was shot in January.

Books by media pundits like Chris Matthews, Bill O’Reilly and Glenn Beck have pushed to the top five on the New York Times nonfiction hardcover best-seller list. “Killing Lincoln: The Shocking Assassination That Changed America Forever,” by Mr. O’Reilly and Martin Dugard, reached the No. 2 spot on the list for the week ending Dec. 3.

“This year so far, it’s been the year of nonfiction,” said Peter Aaron, owner of the Elliott Bay Book Company in Seattle, citing “The Beauty and the Sorrow,” a history of World War I by Peter Englund, and “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by the Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman, an exploration of thinking and intuition. “What’s extraordinary about the books that are out there is that they’ve been so well written and such a pleasure to read. Maybe people have an appetite for nonfiction right now, just for some sort of grounding in reality.”

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=ba40eb568f0c39816ac6fb7dfa452f78

Amazon Publishing Push Grows to Children’s Books

Amazon expanded its publishing ambitions on Tuesday by acquiring more than 450 titles from Marshall Cavendish Children’s Books, a niche publisher.

Amazon has published several children’s books under its AmazonEncore imprint, but the acquisition represents Amazon’s first significant push into the category.

“This is our first attempt to get organized around a children’s books strategy,” Jeff Belle, the vice president for Amazon Publishing, said in an interview, adding that the company intended to convert all of the titles to e-books, a segment of the children’s market that has been slow to take off. “This is a case where there’s a great list of books that have not been digitized.”

Mr. Belle, who is based in Seattle, said Amazon Publishing did not have any children’s book editors on staff.

The titles acquired by Amazon, mostly picture books, are mainly small sellers, but the move is likely to add to the unease that has settled over the industry as Amazon has moved deeper into publishing. Barnes Noble similarly unnerved publishers in 2002 when it acquired Sterling Publishing, which specialized in how-to and craft books and had a backlist of 4,500 titles.

Marshall Cavendish, a publisher of educational books and trade books, has its headquarters in Singapore and one office in Tarrytown, N.Y.

Lee Fei Chen, the group publisher of the Marshall Cavendish Corporation, said that the company would now focus on its core business in educational publishing. Margery Cuyler, the publisher of Marshall Cavendish Children’s Books, did not respond to an e-mail seeking comment.

The company has released picture books, middle-grade and young-adult books, with several books on Jewish themes among its list of new titles for 2011, including “The Golem’s Latkes.”

One of its books, “My Name Is Not Easy,” by Debby Dahl Edwardson, was a finalist for a National Book Award in the young people’s literature category this year.

The more than 450 titles acquired by Amazon represent Marshall Cavendish’s entire backlist and newly released books.

Amazon Publishing has a half-dozen imprints, with specialties in romance, mystery, thrillers, science fiction and foreign language translations. Its New York arm, led by Laurence Kirshbaum, a former literary agent and editor, focuses on nonfiction, literary fiction and business books.

The new children’s titles will initially be published under an imprint carrying the Marshall Cavendish name. Terms of the deal were not disclosed; it is expected to be completed within six months.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=7b2b7c849f74723c29d3336e8371f84a

E.U. Investigating Possible Cartel in E-Book Market

BRUSSELS — The European antitrust authority said Tuesday that it was investigating possible collusion between Apple and five major publishing houses in the growing market for electronic books.

The European Commission said Apple might have helped imprints like Penguin, owned by Pearson of Britain, and HarperCollins, owned by News Corp. of the United States, to engage in “anti-competitive practices affecting the sale of e-books.”

In particular, the commission said it was “examining the character and terms of the agency agreements entered into” by the publishers and retailers of e-books, like Apple.

The three other imprints named by the commission were Hachette Livre, owned by Lagardère of France; Simon Schuster, a division of CBS of the United States; and Verlagsgruppe Georg von Holtzbrinck of Germany.

Apple declined to comment.

In a statement, Pearson said it did “not believe it has breached any laws, and will continue to fully and openly cooperate with the commission.” HarperCollins said that it was “cooperating fully with the investigation.”

Lagardère, based in Paris, declined to comment on the announcement, according to Bloomberg News.

CBS and its Simon Schuster unit did not immediately respond to calls and e-mails seeking comment, while Holtzbrinck did not immediately respond to an e-mail query, according to Bloomberg.

Similar concerns in the United States have already led to litigation.

In August, Hagens Berman, a law firm, filed a class action lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California on behalf of consumers contending that the publishers and Apple increased prices for popular e-book titles to improve profit and force e-book rival Amazon to abandon “pro-consumer discount pricing.”

According to Hagens Berman, the “publishers believed that Amazon’s wildly popular Kindle e-reader device and the company’s discounted pricing for e-books would increase the adoption of e-books, and feared Amazon’s discounted pricing structure would permanently set consumer expectations for lower prices.”

Until recently, a variety of retailers, including major bookshop chains, had the power to set the price of books.

But that system began to change when the publishers, possibly with the help of Apple, whose iPad tablet also serves as an e-book reader, took greater control over the power to set prices, according to European officials.

Those changes may have kept the prices of e-books higher than they might otherwise have been in a fully competitive market, the officials said.

The decision to open the case followed surprise inspections at the offices of companies in the sector in March, and the commission said it would treat the case “as a matter of priority.”

The decision also follows “a significant number of complaints” to the Office of Fair Trading in Britain.

The O.F.T. closed a similar investigation Tuesday, saying in a statement that, “the European Commission is currently well placed to arrive at a comprehensive resolution of this matter.”

European officials are now expected to investigate further to determine whether the five publishers, helped by Apple, deliberately set out to influence prices, and whether consumers have been paying too much for e-books.

The European Commission can fine companies found to have breached the bloc’s competition rules up to 10 percent of their global annual sales, and it can require them to change their business practices.

Dutch raid mobile firms

The Dutch Competition Authority raided the offices of the mobile operators KPN, Vodafone, and Deutsche Telekom’s T-Mobile on Tuesday as part of a price-fixing investigation, Reuters reported from Amsterdam.

The authority said it was investigating whether mobile telecommunications operators in the Netherlands engaged in cartel practices including price-fixing and the sharing of market information.

It did not name any of the companies under investigation. But KPN, Vodafone, and T-Mobile issued separate statements after the announcement saying that the authority officials had been to their offices and that they were cooperating.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=5386435cd41804b176dde2bc851008dc

For Their Children, Many E-Book Readers Insist on Paper

This is the case even with parents who themselves are die-hard downloaders of books onto Kindles, iPads, laptops and phones. They freely acknowledge their digital double standard, saying they want their children to be surrounded by print books, to experience turning physical pages as they learn about shapes, colors and animals.

Parents also say they like cuddling up with their child and a book, and fear that a shiny gadget might get all the attention. Also, if little Joey is going to spit up, a book may be easier to clean than a tablet computer.

“It’s intimacy, the intimacy of reading and touching the world. It’s the wonderment of her reaching for a page with me,” said Leslie Van Every, 41, a loyal Kindle user in San Francisco whose husband, Eric, reads on his iPhone. But for their 2 1/2-year-old daughter, Georgia, dead-tree books, stacked and strewn around the house, are the lone option.

“She reads only print books,” Ms. Van Every said, adding with a laugh that she works for a digital company, CBS Interactive. “Oh, the shame.”

As the adult book world turns digital at a faster rate than publishers expected, sales of e-books for titles aimed at children under 8 have barely budged. They represent less than 5 percent of total annual sales of children’s books, several publishers estimated, compared with more than 25 percent in some categories of adult books.

Many print books are also bought as gifts, since the delights of an Amazon gift card are lost on most 6-year-olds.

Children’s books are also a bright spot for brick-and-mortar bookstores, since parents often want to flip through an entire book before buying it, something they usually cannot do with e-book browsing. A study commissioned by HarperCollins in 2010 found that books bought for 3- to 7-year-olds were frequently discovered at a local bookstore — 38 percent of the time.

And here is a question for a digital-era debate: is anything lost by taking a picture book and converting it to an e-book? Junko Yokota, a professor and director of the Center for Teaching Through Children’s Books at National Louis University in Chicago, thinks the answer is yes, because the shape and size of the book are often part of the reading experience. Wider pages might be used to convey broad landscapes, or a taller format might be chosen for stories about skyscrapers.

Size and shape “become part of the emotional experience, the intellectual experience. There’s a lot you can’t standardize and stick into an electronic format,” said Ms. Yokota, who has lectured on how to decide when a child’s book is best suited for digital or print format.

Publishers say they are gradually increasing the number of print picture books that they are converting to digital format, even though it is time-consuming and expensive, and developers have been busy creating interactive children’s book apps.

While the entry of new tablet devices from Barnes Noble and Amazon this fall is expected to increase the demand for children’s e-books, several publishers said they suspected that many parents would still prefer the print versions.

“There’s definitely a predisposition to print,” said Jon Yaged, president and publisher of Macmillan Children’s Publishing Group, which released “The Pout-Pout Fish” by Deborah Diesen and “On the Night You Were Born” by Nancy Tillman.

“And the parents are the same folks who will have no qualms about buying an e-book for themselves,” he added.

That is the case in the home of Ari Wallach, a tech-obsessed New York entrepreneur who helps companies update their technology. He himself reads on Kindle, iPad and iPhone, but the room of his twin girls is packed with only print books.

“I know I’m a Luddite on this, but there’s something very personal about a book and not one of 1,000 files on an iPad, something that’s connected and emotional, something I grew up with and that I want them to grow up with,” he said.

“I recognize that when they are my age, it’ll be difficult to find a ‘dead-tree book,’ ” he added. “That being said, I feel that learning with books is as important a rite of passage as learning to eat with utensils and being potty-trained.”

Some parents do not want to make the switch for even their school-age children. Alexandra Tyler and her husband read on Kindles, but for their son Wolfie, 7, it is print all the way.

“Somehow, I think it’s different,” she said. “When you read a book, a proper kid’s book, it engages all the senses. It’s teaching them to turn the page properly. You get the smell of paper, the touch.”

There are many software programs that profess to help children learn to read by, for example, saying aloud a highlighted word or picture. Not all parents buy in; Matthew Thomson, 38, an executive at Klout, a social media site, has tried such software for Finn, his 5-year-old. But he believes his son will learn to read faster from print. Plus the bells and whistles of an iPad become a distraction.

“When we go to bed and he knows it’s reading time, he says, ‘Let’s play Angry Birds a little bit,’ ” Mr. Thomson said. “If he’s going to pick up the iPad, he’s not going to read, he’s going to want to play a game. So reading concentration goes out the window.”

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=f1b651ac3127e60ac2e601631fae6d94

DealBook: Hulu’s Owners Call Off Plans to Sell Company

9:08 p.m. | Updated

Hulu’s owners, including the News Corporation, the Walt Disney Company and Providence Equity Partners, have decided not to sell the online video hub, the consortium announced late Thursday.

In a short statement, the owner group said that each of its members found value in holding on to the Web video company instead of selling it to any of a number of potential bidders.

“Since Hulu holds a unique and compelling strategic value to each of its owners, we have terminated the sale process and look forward to working together to continue mapping out its path to even greater success,” the consortium said.

Speculation that Hulu’s owners would decide against a sale had been building up for months. Helping drive that were cryptic comments by the News Corporation’s chief operating officer, Chase Carey, during that company’s earnings call in August. “Does it make sense to pursue that path or does it make sense for us to stay in an ownership position and continue to have it driven by content owners?” he asked.

As bids came in last month from Amazon, Dish Network, Google and others, Hulu’s owners expressed less interest in the valuations of the offers, people briefed on the bids said previously. Most of the bids did not exceed $2 billion, the valuation Hulu was aiming for in a potential initial public offering last year, these people said.

Since then, however, Hulu has begun programs like a $7.99-a-month subscription service that its owners argued significantly bolstered the company’s value. As of Oct. 5, Hulu counted more than one million subscribers to its Hulu Plus service, according to a blog post by its chief executive, Jason Kilar.

Many of the potential bids also hinged on striking longer-term deals with the content providers.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=6e37c4ce994280adc3c6eccb527f8e67

Sony Buying Movie Rights to Steve Jobs Biography

According to a person familiar with the matter, the studio is negotiating to pay about $1 million for the rights to the project.

The person declined to be identified because the deal has not been finalized.

Sony was also behind the Oscar-winning biopic “The Social Network,” about Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, and “This Is It,” a documentary made of concert rehearsal footage of pop star Michael Jackson.

The news was earlier reported by Hollywood blog Deadline.com.

After Jobs’ death on Wednesday, publisher Simon Schuster pushed up the release date on Isaacson’s “Steve Jobs” by a month to Oct. 24.

Large numbers of pre-orders of the digital e-book for $16.99 pushed the title to No. 1 on Apple’s iTunes store and No. 2 on Amazon.com. Pre-orders of the hard cover copy, for $17.88, put the book at No. 1 on Amazon.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=21f0aaa7136e6dbea8d122c3cb63450d

Temperature Rising: With Deaths of Forests, a Loss of Crucial Climate Protectors

But these trees are not supposed to turn red. They are evergreens, falling victim to beetles that used to be controlled in part by bitterly cold winters. As the climate warms, scientists say, that control is no longer happening.

Across millions of acres, the pines of the northern and central Rockies are dying, just one among many types of forests that are showing signs of distress these days.

From the mountainous Southwest deep into Texas, wildfires raced across parched landscapes this summer, burning millions more acres. In Colorado, at least 15 percent of that state’s spectacular aspen forests have gone into decline because of a lack of water.

The devastation extends worldwide. The great euphorbia trees of southern Africa are succumbing to heat and water stress. So are the Atlas cedars of northern Algeria. Fires fed by hot, dry weather are killing enormous stretches of Siberian forest. Eucalyptus trees are succumbing on a large scale to a heat blast in Australia, and the Amazon recently suffered two “once a century” droughts just five years apart, killing many large trees.

Experts are scrambling to understand the situation, and to predict how serious it may become.

Scientists say the future habitability of the Earth might well depend on the answer. For, while a majority of the world’s people now live in cities, they depend more than ever on forests, in a way that few of them understand.

Scientists have figured out — with the precise numbers deduced only recently — that forests have been absorbing more than a quarter of the carbon dioxide that people are putting into the air by burning fossil fuels and other activities. It is an amount so large that trees are effectively absorbing the emissions from all the world’s cars and trucks.

Without that disposal service, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would be rising faster. The gas traps heat from the sun, and human emissions are causing the planet to warm.

Yet the forests have only been able to restrain the increase, not halt it. And some scientists are increasingly worried that as the warming accelerates, trees themselves could become climate-change victims on a massive scale.

“At the same time that we’re recognizing the potential great value of trees and forests in helping us deal with the excess carbon we’re generating, we’re starting to lose forests,” said Thomas W. Swetnam, an expert on forest history at the University of Arizona.

While some of the forests that died recently are expected to grow back, scientists say others are not, because of climate change.

If forests were to die on a sufficient scale, they would not only stop absorbing carbon dioxide, they might also start to burn up or decay at such a rate that they would spew huge amounts of the gas back into the air — as is already happening in some regions. That, in turn, could speed the warming of the planet, unlocking yet more carbon stored in once-cold places like the Arctic.

Scientists are not sure how likely this feedback loop is, and they are not eager to find out the hard way.

“It would be a very different world than the world we’re in,” said Christopher B. Field, an ecologist at the Carnegie Institution for Science.

It is clear that the point of no return has not been reached yet — and it may never be. Despite the troubles of recent years, forests continue to take up a large amount of carbon, with some regions, including the Eastern United States, being especially important as global carbon absorbers.

“I think we have a situation where both the ‘forces of growth’ and the ‘forces of death’ are strengthening, and have been for some time,” said Oliver L. Phillips, a prominent tropical forest researcher with the University of Leeds in England. “The latter are more eye-catching, but the former have in fact been more important so far.”

Scientists acknowledge that their attempts to use computers to project the future of forests are still crude. Some of those forecasts warn that climate change could cause potentially widespread forest death in places like the Amazon, while others show forests remaining robust carbon sponges throughout the 21st century.

“We’re not completely blind, but we’re not in good shape,” said William R. L. Anderegg, a researcher at Stanford University.

Many scientists say that ensuring the health of the world’s forests requires slowing human emissions of greenhouse gases. Most nations committed to doing so in a global environmental treaty in 1992, yet two decades of negotiations have yielded scant progress.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=0b5f964c6a6091786b708b17f79948e3