In Turmoil, Greece and Italy Deepen Euro Crisis

The prospect of a new transitional, technocratic government in Greece, and new pressure on Silvio Berlusconi to resign after a parliamentary vote on Tuesday, did little to reassure investors that either country was prepared to grapple with the deep structural changes that investors are demanding to restore growth and reduce deficits.

In both places, it is not only the economy that is on trial, but also the ability of democratic government to make highly unpopular choices.

The crisis gripping Mr. Berlusconi’s government deepened as interest rates on the country’s debt rose on Tuesday to 6.74 percent, the highest since the introduction of the euro more than a decade ago and nearing levels that have led to bailouts elsewhere.

Financial markets advanced early Monday on word that the prime minister was negotiating his exit, but lost ground after he denied the reports. On Tuesday, Asian markets generally retreated but European markets rose in early trading after two days of declines.

In Greece, where political chaos last week threatened to plunge the euro zone into crisis, doubts remained about the capacity of the political class to form a coalition government to push through reforms it has agreed to in return for a financial lifeline. So strong is the distrust that Europe’s finance ministers refused to release the next $11 billion in aid for Greece until the two leading political parties signed a letter affirming their commitment to meeting the conditions of the loan deal reached last month with European lenders.

Greece and Italy have famously complex political cultures, but today they are both driven by a simple dynamic: no established parties want to assume the full political cost of pushing through unpopular austerity measures and changes to the labor market. And they are jockeying for positions in a new political constellation after eventual elections — as well as for greater bargaining power with the European Union.

“It’s a big mess,” said Roberto D’Alimonte, a political science professor at Luiss Guido Carli University in Rome. “I don’t think it’s that the markets are too strong, but that democracy is weak.”

Forceful leadership also now seems to be in short supply. In Greece, Prime Minister George A. Papandreou agreed to step down to make way for a new unity government after his proposal for a referendum on the debt deal cost him support within his own Socialist coalition (and with European leaders). In Italy, some members of Mr. Berlusconi’s center-right coalition would readily bring him down and replace him with a technocrat — Mario Monti, a former European commissioner, is commonly mentioned— but others want elections and a new political formation.

After denying reports about his imminent resignation, Mr. Berlusconi faced new pressure to quit after a vote on a state financing bill on Tuesday. Although he technically won the vote, many lawmakers declined to cast ballots, showing he had lost a majority that could potentially take down his government. The vote tally means there may be a confidence vote on austerity measures in coming days meant to quell market concerns about Italy.

With high debts, vast underground economies, low birth rates and more pensioners than workers, there is no doubt that Greece and Italy need structural changes to survive. But with deeply entrenched political patronage societies, governments in both countries have been unwilling or unable to carry out such changes, which would require striking the heart of their own constituencies.

Italy first proposed those austerity measures — including pension reform, changes to labor laws and privatization of state industry — in a letter to the European Central Bank the same day the European Union reached its debt deal with Greece and promised to pass them by Nov. 15. But the government has yet to draft the measures into a bill, let alone put the measure to Parliament.

Instead, it has been deadlocked for weeks, as the conflicting interest groups within Mr. Berlusconi’s center-right coalition refuse to budge. The powerful Northern League Party, for one, has opposed raising the retirement age to 67 from 65.

The center-left opposition ranges from neoliberals to former Communists opposed to changes in labor laws, making it difficult to imagine how it could push through structural changes in a future political order.

In Greece, Mr. Papandreou’s Socialist government has passed radical legislation aimed at cutting the public sector, but implementation has been slow, even as the economy shrinks under tax increases and wage cuts that are pushing the country to the brink.

Elisabetta Povoledo and Gaia Pianigiani contributed reporting from Rome, Stephen Castle from Brussels, and Alan Cowell from London.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/09/world/europe/in-turmoil-greece-and-italy-deepen-euro-crisis.html?partner=rss&emc=rss