In ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Talks, First Step Is the Hardest

President Obama and the House speaker, John A. Boehner, are in general agreement on the overarching issue: that the relevant Congressional committees must sit down next year and work out changes to the tax code and entitlement programs to save well more than $1 trillion over the next decade.

But before that work begins, both men want Congress to approve a first installment on deficit reduction that would replace the automatic spending cuts and tax increases that make up the “fiscal cliff,” while signaling Washington’s seriousness about getting its fiscal house in order. That is where the chasm lies in size and scope.

Mr. Obama says the down payment should be large, real and made up almost completely of tax increases on top incomes. He is putting such emphasis on the tax increases partly because he and Congressional leaders last year agreed on some spending cuts over the next decade but have yet to agree on any tax increases.

Republicans have countered by arguing for a smaller down payment that must include immediate savings from Medicare and other entitlements. Republicans, using almost the mirror-image language of Mr. Obama, have said that they do not want to agree to specific tax increases and vague promises of future spending cuts.

“I think there’s a lot of confusion between the initial down payment and the framework. That’s for sure,” said Senator Kent Conrad of North Dakota, chairman of the Senate Budget Committee and part of a bipartisan “Gang of Six” senators who devised the two-stage process.

The two sides are trying to get to a deal that would start with a specific down payment and then fix targets for larger savings in the tax code and entitlement programs. They are expected to spend much of the next year hashing out the specific policy changes needed to hit those targets.

The argument over the size of the down payment is critical. Republicans and Democrats alike worry that canceling roughly $600 billion in deficit-reducing tax increases and spending cuts next year might spook financial markets, which could take the move as proof that the United States’ fiscal problems are politically intractable.

But neither side believes Congress could meaningfully overhaul the main drivers of future deficits — Medicare and Medicaid — in the four weeks that remain before the fiscal deadline.

“Entitlement reform is a big step, and it affects tens of millions of people,” said Senator Richard J. Durbin, Democrat of Illinois and another architect of the two-stage framework. “It’s not just a matter of cutting spending in an appropriation. It’s changing policy. And that’s why I was reluctant to include it in the down-payment conversation. I want this to be a thoughtful effort on both sides that doesn’t jeopardize this program.”

Republican leaders have said that they are willing to raise new revenues in a broad deficit deal, but they want taxes to rise by closing loopholes and curbing tax deductions and credits — a tall order for Congress in a year, let alone a month. They explicitly do not want to allow tax rates to rise on income over $250,000, an issue that is becoming the main stumbling block in the talks.

Mr. Obama is seeking to lock in $1.6 trillion in higher revenue as the bulk of the first stage of deficit reductions before stage two even begins. House Republicans say the down payment should be at least $110 billion, the value of the automatic spending cuts they would cancel next year, and they want those savings to come largely from cuts in Medicare and other benefit programs.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/04/us/politics/in-fiscal-cliff-talks-first-step-is-the-hardest.html?partner=rss&emc=rss