Waves of fear that Greece could default on its mounting debts, and that other European countries might follow, have repeatedly sent global markets plunging in recent weeks. Investors are also increasingly concerned that uncertainty itself is freezing and disrupting economic activity around the world, slowing growth.
Olli Rehn, the European Union’s monetary affairs commissioner, said Saturday that there was “increasing political will” among European leaders for a new effort to soothe investors. He said they were discussing a plan to multiply the financial impact of an existing bailout fund designed to make up to 440 billion euros ($600 billion) in loans to troubled nations and banks, so that it could instead insure a few trillion euros in loans.
French and German officials here continued to insist publicly that they were focused on the July plan, but in private meetings this weekend they made clear that they now understand the need for a new plan, according to a senior American official who described the private conversations on condition of anonymity.
The shift in European strategy comes after several days of intense public pressure from world leaders gathered here for the annual meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. One after another, they have warned publicly and privately that Europe’s problems are dragging down their nations, too.
“We are in a precarious situation,” said Singapore’s finance minister, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, chair of the fund’s steering committee. “And contributing to that is a problem of lack of confidence, in particular lack of confidence in the credibility of policy actions to arrest the crisis.”
The United States also has sharpened its rhetoric. “The threat of cascading default, bank runs and catastrophic risk must be taken off the table, as otherwise it will undermine all other efforts, both within Europe and globally,” the United States Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, said in a statement on Saturday. “Decisions as to how to conclusively address the region’s problems cannot wait until the crisis gets more severe.”
The Obama administration has been pressing European leaders, particularly the Germans, to act more forcefully, fearing that a continued deterioration of the continental economy, and instability in global markets, might undermine the fragile health of the American economy — and President Obama’s re-election prospects.
Perhaps the most obvious option would be an increase in the size of the bailout fund, which was created in 2010 by the 17 nations that use the euro currency. Independent analysts generally agree that the fund is not large enough to meet the borrowing needs for all the countries with problems, including Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.
But political opposition to bailouts and the strained finances of some European countries make such an increase unlikely and, as a result, officials are focused instead on ways of making each euro go further.
One option under consideration, suggested by American officials, is to treat the fund as an insurance program. The European Central Bank, which has an unlimited ability to create money, would lend money to investors to buy the debt of troubled countries. The bailout fund would agree to absorb any losses but, as an insurance program, its capital would be sufficient to guarantee loans with an aggregate value several times as large.
This approach, too, faces some obstacles. Europe’s central bank, which is far more conservative than the Federal Reserve in the United States, would need to accept a new role as a direct lender to investors. Governments would need to embrace an idea that amounts to providing public subsidies for those investors. And the only precedent, an American effort called the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, created during the 2008 financial crisis, is not regarded as a clear success.
The discussions among European officials are intense, reflecting the urgency of the situation, but they remain at an early stage. Mr. Rehn said that countries were focused first on approving the July plan, which allows the fund more flexibility, for example to make preemptive loans to nations that are not yet in distress. Legislatures in each country must approve the changes, and so far only 6 of the 17 have, but Mr. Rehn and other officials said they were confident the process would be done by mid-October.
European officials have already promised to unveil “a collective and bold action plan” together with other major economies in early November, when the leaders of the Group of 20 largest economies holds a scheduled meeting in France.
If financial markets continue to plunge this week, however, there will almost certainly be pressure for more immediate action.
The rest of the world appears to be watching and waiting impatiently.
The fund’s steering committee, which represents the 187 member nations, said Saturday that it was committed “to restore confidence and financial stability, and rekindle global growth.”
But it announced no new measures, reflecting in part the widespread conviction that Europe is the cause of the current problem, and that Europe needs to fix it.
“It is the responsibility of European policymakers to ensure that their actions stop contagion beyond the euro periphery,” Guido Mantega, the Brazilian finance minister, said in a statement Saturday. “Europe has a crucial role to play and needs to act swiftly and boldly.”
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