April 17, 2024

Economix: G.D.P. Estimates Slide Further

Earlier this week we wrote that several prominent economic forecasters had lowered their estimates of gross domestic product growth in the first quarter of this year. Today saw even further declines.

Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecasting firm, lowered its estimate to just 1.4 percent annualized, when just a few months ago they had pegged the number at 4.1 percent.

Capital Economics likewise brought its estimate down to 1 percent, writing in a client note:

Every data release last week seemed to necessitate a further downward revision to our first-quarter GDP growth forecast. By the end of the week when the dust had finally settled, that estimate was down to only 1% at an annualised pace. Indeed, there is now even a decent outside chance that the economy contracted outright.

The median estimate on Bloomberg is 1.8 percent annualized, although many of the usual forecasters have not yet submitted their numbers. We’ll get the Commerce Department’s preliminary number on April 28.

On the bright side, a few forecasters have also tentatively raised their estimates for output growth later this year.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=6d1e50a5c5297d4788451a3d2572869e

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