Economix Blog: The Shrinking Government

FLOYD NORRIS

Notions on high and low finance.

For the 31st consecutive month, the number of government jobs in February was less than it had been a year earlier. There is an employment recovery, but it is confined to the private sector.

The only comparable period in government data, which goes back to 1939, came after World War II, when the government was shrinking for a very good reason. The year-over-year string of declines ended in December 1947 at 30 months. So we have a new record here — a record being set largely because governments, particularly local ones, have been squeezed by a dearth of tax revenues. Year-over-year jobs have been down for 44 consecutive months in local governments.

For the most recent 12 months, private sector employment is up 1.9 percent. Government employment is down 0.5 percent.

As I noted last month in an Off the Charts column, men have done better in the recovery than women have done. That column was based on the government’s household survey, which asks people if they have jobs. The establishment survey, which asks employers both how many workers they have and how many of them are women, helps to explain why that is.

Women dominate in government jobs, now holding 57 percent of them, and have been losing them at a slightly more rapid pace than men have lost their government jobs. The decline in teacher employment probably explains much of that.

Another area where women dominate is in financial services. Not at the top, of course, but down in the trenches. Over all, women hold 57.8 percent of financial service jobs. But as financial service employment has recovered over the last two years, 71 percent of the added jobs have gone to men. As a result, the share of such jobs held by women is now the lowest since 1983.

The really good news in the report provides another sign of recovery in the single area — other than government — that has been holding back this economic recovery. Construction employment was up by 48,000 jobs in February. The last month construction added that many building jobs was March 2007. A month later, Countrywide Financial said its chief executive, Angelo Mozilo, had been paid $48 million in 2006, but that problems in the subprime market had reduced profits.

“Management anticipates that both subprime products and investments will return to profitability in subsequent quarters absent a material worsening of market conditions,” Countrywide said. Only now are we recovering from the very material worsening that did arrive.

The employment numbers are seasonally adjusted, of course, and winter seasonal adjustments can be misleading. If the February gain were standing alone, there would be reason to doubt the figure. But this is no one-month wonder. Over the last six months, construction employment is up 154,000. We haven’t seen that large an increase since 2006.

Article source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/08/the-shrinking-government/?partner=rss&emc=rss