Economix Blog: Little Clarity on the Jobs Front

The jobs report for November has something for every side of the current economic argument. Are you convinced the economy is growing decently? The adding of 146,000 jobs in November sounds good. So does the unemployment rate falling to 7.7 percent.

FLOYD NORRIS

Notions on high and low finance.

Are you convinced the recovery is in peril? The previous two months’ job numbers were revised lower, and the unemployment rate went down only because the labor force declined. The number of manufacturing jobs fell for the third time in the last four months — a string not seen since the depths of the credit crisis in 2009.

At the heart of the confusion is that there are two separated surveys every month, one of households and one of employers. To make things a little more confusing this month, the household survey covered the week of Nov. 4-10, a week earlier than it normally would have, so that the survey would be finished before the Thanksgiving holiday. That meant it covered the week after Hurricane Sandy, which must have had some impact in the affected states. The household survey also tends to be more volatile.

Over time, the two surveys give similar pictures, and that is true now. Over the last 12 months, the household survey says we have added 2.6 million jobs. The establishment survey puts the figure at 2.0 million. (That figure is after adjusting for the coming benchmark revision, which will add 386,000 jobs in the 12 months through March 2012. For purposes of this analysis, I assumed those jobs were spread equally over the period.)

The numbers will not get the fevered debate they did when they came out before the election, for reasons that are obvious. But on balance they indicate an economy that is growing, but that could be threatened if the European recession deepens, reducing the demand for American manufactured exports, or if the Congress and president end up slamming the brakes on fiscal policy with a combination of slashed spending and higher taxes.

Article source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/07/little-clarity-on-the-jobs-front/?partner=rss&emc=rss