April 25, 2024

Economix Blog: For the Markets, a Steady Outlook

10:04 a.m. | Updated with reaction in the bond market.

The latest jobs report appears to maintain the status quo, and for Wall Street, that’s not a bad thing.

Stocks rose on Friday morning after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the United States economy had created 175,000 jobs in May. Soon after the opening bell, the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index rose 0.4 percent.

The number of jobs created in May was slightly higher than many on Wall Street had expected, but the much more important consideration for most strategists was what the number will mean for the policy makers at the Federal Reserve.

“These days, the specifics of the report are far less important to our clients than is the effect it may or may not have on Fed activity,” Dan Greenhaus, the chief strategist at the brokerage BTIG, wrote to clients immediately after the data was released.

The consensus so far is that the number isn’t so low that it points to a shrinking economy, but it also isn’t so high that it will force the Fed to reconsider its monetary stimulus programs. Wall Street has been worried for the last few weeks that the Fed might be looking to pull back on its stimulus sooner than had been previously expected if the economy showed signs of faster-than-expected growth.

“Today’s report, is exactly as we predicted; it does nothing to change the broader view that the Fed is set to steadily reduce its pace of asset purchases at the September meeting and that all else equal, good news should be taken as good news,” Mr. Greenhaus wrote.

Because the Fed has been injecting money into the economy by buying government bond markets, those bond prices are a closely watched indication of sentiment about the Fed. In early trading on Friday morning, investors were buying United States government bonds in a bet that the Fed will be doing so as well. That helped push down the interest rate on the benchmark 10-year bond to 2.11 percent, from 2.08 percent on Thursday night.

Article source: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/for-the-markets-a-steady-outlook/?partner=rss&emc=rss

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