Economix Blog: A Razor-Thin Decline in Stocks

It was a down year for the American stock market, at least by one measure. But the margin was tiny.

The Standard Poor’s 500 closed Friday at 1,257.60, according to the preliminary tabulation. That was down 0.04 points, or 0.0028 percent, from 2010.

On a total return basis, including dividends, the index was up for the year.

Traditionally, the third year of presidential terms is better than other years in the presidential cycle. The last third year in which the S.P. 500 failed to show a gain was 1947, when it closed exactly unchanged. (With dividends, of course, it was up for the year.)

In 1948, a Democratic president, Harry Truman, won an upset victory in which he campaigned against a “Do Nothing” Republican Congress that had blocked his legislative agenda.

Is past prologue?

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=f811e976d9e1a86f0bc2160a80118692