Some of those workers may have retired. Others may be waiting to come back when health risks from the virus are less pronounced, or may be struggling to find child care amid regular school shutdowns.
Still, there is plenty of evidence of momentum underlying the uneven economic recovery. A record number of Americans quit their jobs in November, as intense competition, especially in lower-wage sectors, has presented workers with opportunities to demand and seek higher wages and better working conditions.
“We’ve seen these subsequent waves,” Mr. Bunker said. “And then things have reverted to the underlying strength.”
Economic policymakers at the Federal Reserve are aware that many workers are still missing from the labor force, but they have increasingly signaled that they will not wait for workers to return to remove help for the economy. With wages rising and inflation at its highest in nearly 40 years, officials are trying to make sure that prices remain under control.
The figures released on Friday will probably confirm to them that the economy is closing on their full employment goal.
“A lot of the focus at the Fed will be on the lower unemployment rate,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, senior rates strategist at TD Securities, noting that markets actually increased their expectations of rate increases in 2022 after the data release.
Officials have signaled that they could raise interest rates several times this year in a bid to slow spending and cool off a fast-growing economy, and economists think those moves could start as soon as this spring. For now, Fed policymakers seem content to define “full employment” — their job-market goal — as low joblessness.
“I don’t think it’s a matter of some internal conflict between hiking and full employment,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan. When it comes to declaring victory on job-market progress, he said, “most of them are already there.”
Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/07/business/economy/jobs-report-december-2021.html
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