Chinese Economy Picks Up Steam in Last Quarter

HONG KONG — The giant Chinese economy picked up some steam during the last few months of 2012, closely watched data from Beijing on Friday confirmed. But at the same time the figures underlined the view that the pace of future growth is likely to remain well below that seen in recent years.

China’s gross domestic product expanded 7.9 percent during the final quarter of last year, compared to a year earlier — slightly better than expectations, and significantly above the 7.4 percent pace recorded during the previous quarter.

Separate data for the month of December also came in a touch better than analysts had forecast: Retail sales expanded 15.2 percent from a year earlier, and industrial output grew 10.3 percent. Both figures were slightly better than those recorded in November, and helped lift stock markets in mainland China and Hong Kong on Friday.

China’s mild re-acceleration has been helped by a gradual recovery in overseas demand for Chinese-made goods in recent months, as well as a string of economic stimulus measures that helped dissipate earlier concerns that China might be headed for a “hard landing” during 2012.

At the same time however, the batch of data released by the Chinese statistics bureau on Friday also underlined that China’s once red-hot economy has now settled into a much lower pace of expansion.

The head of the statistics authority, Ma Jiantang, acknowledged as much at a press conference in Beijing: “I think you could use these two sentences to give a relatively concise assessment of economic performance in 2012,” he said. “First, national economic performance maintained stability while slowing; second, economic and social development made advances while maintaining stability.”

Annual expansion has slowed to around 8 percent — the pace for 2012 was 7.8 percent, according to Friday’s data, and many analysts expect a similar or slightly better pace for 2013 — far below the double-digit rates it enjoyed in the past.

Moreover, analysts believe the pace is likely to slow even further over the coming decade as the authorities pursue a shift towards higher-quality growth, and grapple with the gradual aging of the country’s population.

Friday’s data confirmed “that the worst is probably over for the economy and that China has avoided a hard landing. But it is quite a narrow escape,” commented Xianfang Ren, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Beijing, in a note. “The economy will likely be wiggling within quite a narrow band of growth rates in 2013, as the upside pull only marginally outweighs the downside drag.”

Chris Buckley contributed reporting.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/19/business/global/chinese-economy-picks-up-steam-in-last-quarter.html?partner=rss&emc=rss