November 15, 2024

White House Debates Fight on Economy

Mr. Obama’s senior adviser, David Plouffe, and his chief of staff, William M. Daley, want him to maintain a pragmatic strategy of appealing to independent voters by advocating ideas that can pass Congress, even if they may not have much economic impact. These include free trade agreements and improved patent protections for inventors.

But others, including Gene Sperling, Mr. Obama’s chief economic adviser, say public anger over the debt ceiling debate has weakened Republicans and created an opening for bigger ideas like tax incentives for businesses that hire more workers, according to Congressional Democrats who share that view. Democrats are also pushing the White House to help homeowners facing foreclosure.

Even if the ideas cannot pass Congress, they say, the president would gain a campaign issue by pushing for them.

“The president’s team puts a premium on being above the partisan fray, which is usually the right strategy,” said Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, the No. 3 Democrat in the Senate. “But on this issue, when he knows what the right thing to do is, and when a rather small group on one side is blocking any progress, you have to be willing to call that group out if you want to get anything done.”

Dan Pfeiffer, the White House director of communications, said that there was no internal debate. “The president’s first priority is to work with Republicans and Democrats to grow the economy, create jobs and reduce the deficit, but if the Republican House continues its ‘my way or the highway’ approach, he will make sure the public knows who is standing in the way and why.”

The issue is being framed by the 2012 election. Administration officials, frustrated by the intransigence of House Republicans, have increasingly concluded that the best thing Mr. Obama can do for the economy may be winning a second term, with a mandate to advance his ideas on deficit reduction, entitlement changes, housing policy and other issues.

Mr. Obama plans to spend time this weekend considering his options, advisers said. The White House expects to unveil new job-creation proposals in early September.

The ailing economy, barely growing at the same pace as the population, has swept all other political issues to the sidelines. Twenty-five million Americans could not find full-time jobs last month. Millions of families cannot afford to live in their homes. And the contentious debate over raising the federal debt ceiling — which Mr. Obama achieved only after striking a compromise with Republicans that included a plan for at least $2.1 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years — has further shaken economic confidence.

Republicans contend that the Obama administration has mismanaged the nation’s recovery from the 2008 financial crisis. Mr. Obama’s political advisers are struggling to define a response, aware that their prospects may rest on persuading voters that the results of the first term matter less than the contrast between their vision for the next four years and the alternative economic ideas offered by Republicans.

So far, most signs point to a continuation of the nonconfrontational approach — better to do something than nothing — that has defined this administration. Mr. Obama and his aides are skeptical that voters will reward bold proposals if those ideas do not pass Congress. It is their judgment that moderate voters want tangible results rather than speeches.

“If you’re talking about a stunt, I don’t think a stunt is what the American people are looking for,” the White House press secretary, Jay Carney, told reporters on Wednesday. “They’re looking for leadership, and they’re looking for a focus on economic growth and job creation.”

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/14/us/politics/14econ.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

With Washington at Impasse, Worry Over Investor Reaction

“We may have a few stressful days coming up — stressful for the markets of the world and the American people,” William M. Daley, the chief of staff for Mr. Obama, said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” Sunday morning.

Early reaction to the gridlock indicated worries in global markets, with the dollar losing ground to an index of currencies, United States stocks futures declining and gold, deemed a safe investment during times of uncertainty, rising.

For weeks, the market for United States Treasuries — long considered the world’s ultimate safe haven — has held relatively steady.

“It wouldn’t be surprising to see a little bit of global reaction to the fact that there’s no sign of an agreement. A sell-off of maybe 1 to 2 percent,” said Fred H. Dickson, chief investment strategist at the Davidson Companies, a brokerage and money management firm in Montana.

It is too soon to know how the stalled progress will play out in the markets all week and whether selling might be even greater.

The Treasury Department has said that the government must reach a deal by Aug. 2 or risk being unable to temporarily meet all its obligations like interest payments on debt, Social Security or paychecks to federal workers.

Few investors believe the United States will renege on its debt. Analysts point out that the government has neared the brink on reaching crucial financial agreements in the past without marketwide collapse. Still, the greatest anxiety in the markets is that investors will lose confidence in Treasuries and move toward selling them, which would drive their values down and their rates up.

John Canavan, a market analyst at Stone McCarthy Research, a research firm in Princeton, N.J., said that he thinks investors might sell some United States bonds to buy German bonds, or assets in Asia and emerging markets. Foreign investors, he noted, own a far greater share of United States debt than was the case several decades ago.

“They don’t hold them because they have any patriotism or anything else and they’re going to be quick to unload them if they feel there is danger to hold them,” Mr. Canavan said.

Mr. Canavan did not miss a beat when asked when investors would become more nervous. “Now,” he said. “There has been this expectation that at some point, they’d come up with a deal, but given the failure this weekend, I think market confidence is eroding.”

The initial reaction in Asian markets was muted. The Nikkei 225 was down about 0.56 percent in morning trading, while the S. P./ASX 200 index in Australia fell 0.83 percent. Gold rose again to just over $1,610 an ounce early in the Asian trading day.

It is often difficult to contemporaneously pinpoint when a panic begins. The financial crisis of 2008, for instance, is often dated to the summer of 2007, but it did not result in full-fledged market chaos for more than a year. During that time, many government officials said the situation was under control.

The situation in the United States does carry some of the classic ingredients for flurries of selling, financial historians said. Panics sometimes occur when an asset that is considered perfectly safe comes into question. Other conditions for financial mayhem include excessive speculation in a sort of investment — often one thought to be very safe — and sometimes low interest rates.

Some financial historians also believe the markets have become more panic-prone than they once were, in part because of the mass of cash that has poured in recent decades into short-term investments like money market funds.

The current situation is unusual, though, in an important way, said David A. Moss, an economic policy professor at Harvard Business School. Treasuries, he said, are the typical safe haven during a panic, so people might not run away from them.

Mr. Moss said that the outcome could be that there is a “mad rush” out of Treasuries, or it also might be that “people aren’t sure what to do, so they just stay there.”

Treasuries have been at the center of panics in the United States before, though far earlier in American history. Richard Sylla, a finance professor at the Stern School of Business of New York University who has written about panics, pointed to 1792, when one Treasury trader ran into problems and sent the market into a spiral in which it lost 25 percent of its value.

About 100 years later, Congress had to call an emergency session because the Treasury was running out of gold reserves as foreign investors redeemed dollars for gold, Mr. Sylla said.

“Today we talk about what happens if the Chinese sell all the U.S. securities; in 1893, foreign investors were doing just that,” Mr. Sylla said.

Mr. Sylla’s initial assessment of the current situation was, “They’re playing with fire in Washington, D.C., right now.”

Or as the chief of fixed income at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, Kevin Flanagan, said: “When you’re a bond guy, the thought of default is like Kryptonite. It’s a word you just don’t want to hear.”

Still, perhaps because no one likes to talk in earnest about possible panics, Mr. Moss, Mr. Sylla and Mr. Flanagan said they did think a deal would be reached in Washington before Aug. 2. That would avoid even a technical default, which is a short-term, nonpermanent default that could occur if the government had to delay some payments temporarily while it wrapped up a budget deal.

In addition to watching market signals like interest rates on Treasuries, traders said they were eager to see whether the Treasury Department would announce on Monday that it will decrease the size of this week’s auction of new Treasury securities. The department has been decreasing the size of its weekly auction over the last month, to give it more flexibility if the debt limit is not increased by next week.

Mr. Moss of the Harvard Business School said he did not think that many people were thinking that the nation might enter into an all-out default on its debt and refuse to pay it. But he said a panic could “take on a life of its own” if the Aug. 2 deadline passed, for instance, and if contracts that relied on securities had to be unwound.

When it comes to regular investors, David B. Armstrong, a financial adviser in the Washington area, is not seeing much panic. Of his 125 clients, two called him last week, but none called over the weekend.

“People don’t seem to think that it will end in a default,” said Mr. Armstrong, a managing director of Monument Wealth Management. “Everybody’s talking about it, but no one is panicking about it.”

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=6c84b68e6b432d22a297e36a8473428b