November 22, 2024

Fair Game: The Fed’s Rescue Missed Main Street

FOR the last three years we have been told repeatedly by government officials that funneling hundreds of billions of dollars to large and teetering banks during the credit crisis was necessary to save the financial system, and beneficial to Main Street.

But this has been a hard sell to an increasingly skeptical public. As Henry M. Paulson Jr., the former Treasury secretary, told the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission back in May 2010, “I was never able to explain to the American people in a way in which they understood it why these rescues were for them and for their benefit, not for Wall Street.”

The American people were right to question Mr. Paulson’s pitch, as it turns out. And that became clearer than ever last week when Bloomberg News published fresh and disturbing details about the crisis-era bailouts.

Based on information generated by Freedom of Information Act requests and its longstanding lawsuit against the Federal Reserve board, Bloomberg reported that the Fed had provided a stunning $1.2 trillion to large global financial institutions at the peak of its crisis lending in December 2008.

The money has been repaid and the Fed has said its lending programs generated no losses. But with the United States economy weakening, European banks in trouble and some large American financial institutions once again on shaky ground, the Fed may feel compelled to open up its money spigots again.

Such a move does not appear imminent; on Friday Ben S. Bernanke, the Fed chairman, told attendees at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., conference that the Fed would take necessary steps to help the economy, but didn’t outline any possibilities as he has done previously.

If the Fed reprises some of its emergency lending programs, we will at least know what they will involve and who will be on the receiving end, thanks to Bloomberg.

For instance, its report detailed the surprisingly sketchy collateral — stocks and junk bonds — accepted by the Fed to back its loans. And who will be surprised if foreign institutions, which our central bank has no duty to help, receive bushels of money from the Fed in the coming months? In 2008, the Royal Bank of Scotland received $84.5 billion, and Dexia, a Belgian lender, borrowed $58.5 billion from the Fed at its peak.

Walker F. Todd, a research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research and a former assistant general counsel and research officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said these details from 2008 confirm that institutions, not citizens, were aided most by the bailouts.

“What is the benefit to the American taxpayer of propping up a Belgian bank with a single New York banking office to the tune of tens of billions of dollars?” he asked. “It seems inconsistent ultimately to have provided this much assistance to the biggest institutions for so long, and then to have done in effect nothing for the homeowner, nothing for credit card relief.”

Mr. Todd also questioned the Fed’s decision to accept stock as collateral backing a loan to a bank. “If you make a loan in an emergency secured by equities, how is that different in substance from the Fed walking into the New York Stock Exchange and buying across the board tomorrow?” he asked. “And yet this, the Fed has steadfastly denied ever doing.”

If these rescues were intended to benefit everyday Americans, as Mr. Paulson contended, they have failed. Main Street is in a world of hurt, facing high unemployment, rampant foreclosures and ravaged retirement accounts.

This important topic of bailout inequities came up in Congress earlier this month. Edward J. Kane, professor of finance at Boston College, addressed a Senate banking panel convened on Aug. 3 by Sherrod Brown, the Ohio Democrat. “Our representative democracy espouses the principle that all men and women are equal under the law,” Mr. Kane said. “During the housing bubble and the economic meltdown that the bursting bubble brought about, the interests of domestic and foreign financial institutions were much better represented than the interests of society as a whole.”

THIS inequity must be eliminated, Mr. Kane said, especially since taxpayers will be billed for future bailouts of large and troubled institutions. Such rescues are not really loans, but the equivalent of equity investments by taxpayers, he said.

As such, regulators who have a duty to protect taxpayers should require these institutions to provide them with true and comprehensive reports about their financial positions and the potential risks they involve. These reports would counter companies’ tendencies to hide their risk exposures through accounting tricks and innovation and would carry penalties for deception.

“Examiners would have to challenge this work, make the companies defend it and protect taxpayers from the misstatements we get today,” Mr. Kane said in an interview last week. “The banks really feel entitled to hide their deteriorating positions until they require life support. That’s what we have to change. We must put them in position to be punished for an intent to deceive.”

Given the degree to which financial regulators are captured by the companies they oversee, prescriptions like Mr. Kane’s are going to be fought hard. But the battle could not be more important; if we do nothing to protect taxpayers from the symbiotic relationship between the industry and their federal minders, we are in for many more episodes like the one we are still digging out of.

EVALUATING bailout programs like the Troubled Asset Relief Program and the facilities extended by the Fed against “the senseless standard of doing nothing at all,” Mr. Kane testified, government officials tell taxpayers that these actions were “necessary to save us from worldwide depression and made money for the taxpayer.” Both contentions are false, he said.

“Bailing out firms indiscriminately hampered rather than promoted economic recovery,” Mr. Kane continued. “It evoked reckless gambles for resurrection among rescued firms and created uncertainty about who would finally bear the extravagant costs of these programs. Both effects continue to disrupt the flow of credit and real investment necessary to trigger and sustain economic recovery.”

As for making money on the deals? Only half-true, Mr. Kane said. “Thanks to the vastly subsidized terms these programs offered, most institutions were eventually able to repay the formal obligations they incurred.” But taxpayers were inadequately compensated for the help they provided, he said. We should have received returns of 15 percent to 20 percent on our money, given the nature of these rescues.

Government officials rewarded imprudent institutions with stupefying amounts of free money. Even so, we are still in economically stormy seas. Doesn’t that indicate that it’s time to try a different tack?

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=0c85f7a8c039ad5f08d5069b0740f8fd

How the S.&P. Downgrade Will Affect the Country

“I think this is already baked in the cake,” said Garett Jones, an economist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, suggesting that investors and bond traders had already accounted for a downgrade. “It’s not a disaster. It’s just that we’re a little bit riskier, a little bit crazier than people thought a month or two ago.”

However, with the United States economy on such fragile footing and growth remaining elusive, and with Europe desperately trying to contain its debt crisis, anything that undermines already low confidence levels could create a ripple effect and further stall the recovery.

“It’s a very emotional and volatile environment,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University and author, with Carmen M. Reinhart, of “This Time Is Different,” a history of financial crises. “An event like this can sometimes trigger a reaction far in excess of what you might expect.”

In practical terms, investors will first focus on what happens when global markets open Monday morning, particularly in trading of Treasuries. Standard Poor’s announced its downgrade after the markets had closed on Friday. Analysts said that since Moody’s and Fitch, the two other ratings agencies, have so far kept the United States at AAA, the S. P. downgrade left Treasuries near the top of a short list of assets attractive to investors anxious about Europe’s debt crisis.

“People are going to look for a safe place to hide,” said Ward McCarthy, the chief financial economist at Jefferies, a securities and investment banking firm. “And there aren’t many places. There’s gold and Treasuries.”

Although the debt downgrade itself is somewhat abstract, even those who don’t pay much attention to economic news will hear of it on cable news programs and late-night comedy shows. And S. P.’s judgment mainly reflects the anxieties many Americans are already feeling as a result of the nation’s debt troubles.

“For a household, the concern is, am I going to keep my job and what are my future tax burdens?” said Glenn Hubbard, the Columbia Business School dean who led the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush. “If Washington is having a very difficult time getting its fiscal house in order, as a household, I either expect radical spending cuts that will affect me or radical tax increases that are going to affect me,” Mr. Hubbard said. “It doesn’t mean I won’t buy bread, but it might mean putting off purchases” like washing machines, furniture or other large items.

The United States stock market will be a crucial barometer when Wall Street opens on Monday morning, and some analysts expect it could actually rally after the big losses last week — down 7.1 percent in just five days. “This may be one of those sell-the-rumor-and-buy-the-news relief rallies,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.

The stock market, though, does not have the safe haven protection of Treasuries, and is more a gauge of the broader economic outlook. With up to 70 percent of the economy driven by consumer buying, anything that could cause a further downshift in confidence is worrying.

“People may not know the exact details of what’s going on, but when they hear that the U.S. is close to default, even though it may be for all practical purposes a short default, they get scared,” said Raghuram G. Rajan, professor of economics at the University of Chicago. “If people think the full faith and credit of the U.S. isn’t what it was thought to be, they think that something has changed. It does erode confidence a little bit.”

For those worried that the downgrade could cause mutual funds, banks or money market funds to withdraw from Treasuries, there was little evidence of that over the weekend. The downgrade of long-term Treasuries does not affect the short-term federal debt widely held by money market mutual funds.

Mr. Rajan said that downgrade of debt in a smaller emerging economy would most likely immediately bring jumps in interest rates that would affect companies, home buyers and car purchases. But the strength of Treasuries, which tend to determine mortgage rates, would keep rates low for now, he said.

Louise Story contributed reporting.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=6770d9f024a2f47e717870b8e40c2dcc

U.S. Stocks Open With Strong Gains

Stocks in the United States swept higher on Monday with gains in the energy and financial sectors that appeared for now to give the market a bout of stability after last week’s volatility.

The rally followed a mostly quiet weekend after one of the most tumultuous weeks ever on Wall Street, in which worries about the United States economy and the threat of a financial crisis in Europe overwhelmed traders, sending the main American stock indexes down less than 2 percent.

The higher opening on Wall Street on Monday came after European and Asian markets rallied. A multibillion-dollar Google deal, a rise in commodity prices and the perception that European leaders and the central bank would take measures including bond purchases to support debt-strapped periphery countries could be helping, analysts said, though such sovereign debt and economic problems are expected to remain a factor in the markets.

Google’s announcement of a $12.5 billion deal to acquire Motorola Mobility Holdings, the cellphone unit spun off earlier this year by Motorola, helped raise the technology sector of the S. P. more than 1 percent. Motorola’s shares were up more than 57 percent within the first hour of trading, while Google’s shares slipped.

Energy shares rose more than 2 percent while financial stocks were up nearly 2 percent. As oil prices rose, shares in Exxon Mobil and Chevron were up more than 2 percent.

“The initial fears of Monday and Wednesday of last week were a little bit overdone,” said Russell Price, senior economist with Ameriprise Financial.

While worries about the United States economy have overshadowed the markets for weeks, Mr. Price and several other economists said that investors were taking a second look at some of the causes of the volatility from last week.

“People are taking a more rational view of the path ahead, that some of the problems in Europe can be addressed with additional spending restraint from some of the governments” which will take time, said Mr. Price.

And as for the United States, he added, “there is probably some easing of the anxiety that the double-dip recession is not a sure thing, although today’s Empire manufacturing report was disappointing.”

He was referring to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which economists consider when assessing the strength of one of the most important sectors in the economic recovery. The index, produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, fell to a negative 7.72 points in August, after a negative 3.76 points in July, suggesting that business conditions worsened for manufacturers in the New York region.

Financial stocks were up solidly. Bank of America, the most active of the group, rose nearly 4 percent. It took steps on Monday to exit the international credit card business, agreeing to sell its $8.6 billion Canadian card venture to the TD Bank Group for an undisclosed amount and putting its remaining European card portfolio on the block.

Citigroup was up 2.85 percent and Morgan Stanley rose more than 4 percent.

Broader commodity prices were up on Monday, and investors were probably doing some bargain hunting after last week’s declines, said Keith B. Hembre, the chief economist and chief investment strategist at Nuveen Asset Management.

“It is part of the market trying to find its feet,” said Mr. Hembre.

“Despite the bounce on Friday, this market has been really beaten up,” he added.

Around noon, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 108.19 points, or 0.9 percent. The Standard Poor’s 500-stock index gained 13.44 points, or 1 percent, and the Nasdaq composite index was up 18.35 points, or 0.7 percent.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury was 2.25 percent, about even with Friday’s yield.

The Standard Poor’s 500-stock index rose 0.5 percent Friday, after a roller-coaster performance during the week, as investors struggled to assess the impact of the downgrade of United States long-term debt.

In afternoon trading, the Euro Stoxx 50 index, a barometer of euro zone blue chips, rose 1.1 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in London was up 0.8 percent. Gains by Unilever, the British-Dutch consumer products company, and the Swiss drug maker Novartis, helped to support European stocks.

Investors’ attention was focused on a meeting Tuesday of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president. The two leaders will be addressing the threat to the euro zone posed by low growth and teetering public finances in some euro members, their room to maneuver circumscribed by fears that France could be next in line for market attacks.

Analysts have said that the meeting falls at a time when investors need to hear from government leaders about new policy measures aimed at addressing some of the debt issues. Mr. Price said the expectation of additional steps could be helping lift stocks on Monday.

“At least that is what the market is perceiving,” said Mr. Price.

Asian shares rose Monday, with the Tokyo benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average gaining 1.4 percent.

The main Sydney market index, the S.P./ASX 200, jumped 2.6 percent. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng was up 3.3 percent, and in Shanghai, the composite index rose 1.3 percent.

Comex gold futures were down 0.17 percent, to $1,737.20. Crude oil futures for September delivery rose 1.14 percent to $86.35.

Many European investors were taking the Assumption Day holiday off, though markets were open for business across most of the Continent.

In Japan, second-quarter gross domestic product data showing that the economy there had contracted less severely than expected also helped lift sentiment.

The statistics, released by the Cabinet Office early Monday, showed that the Japanese economy, which was battered by a huge earthquake and tsunami in March, had contracted 0.3 percent from the previous quarter, indicating that economic activity had rallied more quickly than expected after the disaster.

The dollar was mixed against other major currencies. The euro rose to $1.4419 from $1.4248 late Friday in New York, while the British pound rose to $1.6355 from $1.6276.

But the dollar was higher against the yen, rising to 76.61 yen from 76.67 yen, and rising to 0.7826 Swiss francs from 0.7777 francs. The Swiss currency lost ground amid reports that the Swiss National Bank was preparing to create a temporary peg to the euro.

Both the Swiss and Japanese authorities have watched with alarm as their currencies rose against the dollar, because an overvalued currency can hurt companies’ export earnings and choke off economic growth.

“Decent data on Thursday and Friday last week brought a semblance of stability to markets,” analysts at DBS in Singapore wrote in a research note on Monday, referring to American retail sales and jobless figures that were both relatively upbeat.

“Housing, inflation and industrial production will have the do the trick this week,” the DBS analysts commented. “It won’t be easy.”

Ben Protess contributed reporting. David Jolly reported from Paris and Bettina Wassener contributed reporting from Hong Kong

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/16/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

News Analysis: Time to Say It: Double Dip Recession May Be Happening

It has been three decades since the United States suffered a recession that followed on the heels of the previous one. But it could be happening again. The unrelenting negative economic news of the past two weeks has painted a picture of a United States economy that fell further and recovered less than we had thought.

When what may eventually be known as Great Recession I hit the country, there was general political agreement that it was incumbent on the government to fight back by stimulating the economy. It did, and the recession ended.

But Great Recession II, if that is what we are entering, has provoked a completely different response. Now the politicians are squabbling over how much to cut spending. After months of wrangling, they passed a bill aimed at forcing more reductions in spending over the next decade.

If this is the beginning of a new double dip, it will have two significant things in common with the dual recessions of 1980 and 1981-82.

In each case the first recession was caused in large part by a sudden withdrawal of credit from the economy. The recovery came when credit conditions recovered.

And in each case the second recession began at a time when the usual government policies to fight economic weakness were deemed unavailable. Then, the need to fight inflation ruled out an easier monetary policy. Now, the perceived need to reduce government spending rules out a more accommodating fiscal policy.

The American economy fell into what was at first a fairly mild recession at the end of 2007. But the downturn turned into a worldwide plunge after the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 led to the vanishing of credit for nearly all borrowers not deemed super-safe. Banks in the United States and other countries needed bailouts to survive.

The unavailability of credit caused a decline in world trade volumes of a magnitude not seen since the Great Depression, and nearly every economy went into recession.

But it turned out that businesses overreacted. While sales to customers fell, they did not decline as much as production did.

That fact set the stage for an economic rebound that began in mid-2009, with the National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of such things, determining that the recession ended in June of that year. Manufacturers around the world reported rapidly rising orders.

Until recently, most observers believed the American economy was in a slow recovery, albeit one with very disappointing job growth. The official figures on gross domestic product showed the United States economy grew to a record size in the final three months of 2010, having erased the loss of 4.1 percent in G.D.P. from top to bottom.

Then last week the government announced its annual revision to the numbers for the last several years. New government surveys indicated Americans had spent less than previously estimated in 2009 and 2010 on a wide range of things, including food, clothing and computers. Tax returns showed Americans even cut back on gambling. The recession now appears to have been deeper — a top-to-bottom fall of 5.1 percent — and the recovery even less impressive. The economy is still smaller than it was in 2007.

In June, more American manufacturers said new orders fell than rose, according to a survey by the Institute for Supply Management. The margin was small, but the survey had shown rising orders for 24 consecutive months. Manufacturers in most European countries, including Germany and Britain, also reported weaker new orders.

Back in 1980, a recession was started when the government — despairing of its failure to bring down surging inflation rates — invoked controls aimed at limiting the expansion of credit and making it more costly for banks to make loans. Those controls proved to be far more effective than anyone expected, and the economy promptly tanked. In July the credit controls were ended, and the economic research bureau later determined that the recession ended that month.

By the first quarter of 1981 the economy was larger than it had been at the previous peak.

But little had been done about inflation, and the Federal Reserve was determined to slay that dragon. With interest rates high, home sales plunged in late 1981 to the lowest level since the government began collecting the data in 1963. Now they are even lower.

There is, of course, no assurance that a new recession has begun or will do so soon, and a positive jobs report on Friday morning could revive some optimism. But concerns have grown that the essential problems that led to the 2007-09 recession were not solved, just as inflation remained high throughout the 1980 downturn. Housing prices have not recovered, and millions of Americans owe more in mortgage debt than their homes are worth. Extremely low interest rates helped to push up corporate profits, but companies have hired relatively few people.

In any other cycle, the recent spate of poor economic news would have resulted in politicians vying with one another to propose programs to revive growth. President Obama has called for more spending on infrastructure, but there appears to be little chance Congress will take any action. The focus in Washington is now on deciding where to reduce spending, not increase it.

There have been some hints that the Federal Reserve might be willing to resume purchasing government bonds, which it stopped doing in June, despite opposition from conservative members of Congress. But the revised economic data may indicate that the previous program — known as QE2, for quantitative easing — had even less impact than had been thought. With short-term interest rates near zero, the Fed’s monetary policy options are limited.

Government stimulus programs historically have often appeared to be accomplishing little until the cumulative effect suddenly helps to power a self-sustaining recovery. This time, the best hope may be that the stimulus we have already had will prove to have been enough.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/05/business/economy/double-dip-recession-may-be-returning.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Stocks Down Over 4% in Global Sell-Off

Stock market indexes in the United States and Europe dropped more than 4 percent as Japan intervened to weaken its currency and the European Central Bank began buying bonds to try to calm markets.

At the close, the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index was down 60.27 points, or 4.78 percent, to 1,200.07. The Dow Jones industrial average was off 512.76 points, or 4.31 percent, to 11,383.68, and the Nasdaq was down 136.68, or 5.08 percent, to 2,556.39.

It was the biggest percentage drop since February 2009.

Following accelerating falls over the last two weeks, the stock market is now officially in “correction” territory, defined as a drop of 10 percent to 20 percent since the latest peak.

The S.P. 500 has fallen 12 percent since its recent high of 1,363.61 on April 29, underlining the new negative investment sentiment about the economy and Europe.

“We are now in correction mode,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard Poor’s. “We could have another couple of weeks to go before it bottoms.”

The last time the market was in a correction was last summer, when it fell 16 percent before recovering.

A fear haunting markets is that the United States economy may be heading for a double-dip recession. And even after a second major rescue package for Greece and the agreement to raise the debt ceiling in the United States, investors are concerned that world leaders have not done enough to address fragile underlying economic growth, while Europe’s debt problems have moved on to the much bigger economies of Italy and Spain.

Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive of the bond giant Pimco, said investors were selling risky assets like stocks “globally prompted by concerns about the weakening economic outlook, spreading contagion in Europe and insufficient policy responses.”

With Thursday’s dive, the three major American indexes had erased all of the gains made so far in 2011, with the S.P. and Nasdaq markedly below the start of the year.

The Dow, an index of 30 blue-chip stocks, was about 11.1 percent off of its most recent closing high of 12,810.54, reached on April 29. But it was 19.6 percent below its all-time high of 14,164.53, on Oct. 9, 2007.

Since the beginning of 2008, there have been 17 days with drops of 4 percent or more — 13 in 2008 and 4 in 2009.

Unnerved by policy makers’ apparent inability to get ahead of Europe’s festering debt crisis, European stock markets turned sharply negative across the board.

In Britain, stocks closed down 3.43 percent. In Germany, the DAX index dropped 3.4 percent. In France, the CAC 40 closed down 3.9 percent.

“This is the worst it has been in Europe,” said Jens Nordvig, currency economist at Nomura Securities in New York. “The current rescue package was not enough to cope with the size of the problems posed by Italy and Spain. We need a new framework that can cope with those two countries, and without it markets are on their own and are falling.”

Major indexes in Italy, Spain, France and Switzerland all closed Thursday more than 20 percent below their 2011 highs, while Germany was off nearly 15 percent and Britain’s decline was more than 11 percent.

The selling has extended to many other markets. Mexican stocks are off almost 14 percent from their highs earlier this year, and Brazil’s major index has lost more than a quarter of its value.

Yields on Italian government bonds, already above 6 percent, rose sharply, adding to concerns that the nation’s current debt position is unsustainable. Yields on Spanish debt also increased. This was despite large-scale intervention by the European Central Bank, which for the first time since March began buying bonds in an apparent attempt to prevent the region’s sovereign debt crisis from engulfing Italy.

The markets had expected some concrete action from Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi on Italian’s worsening debt situation in public remarks late Wednesday. But they were disappointed when he defended the country’s fundamentals and said current packages were enough to foster economic growth. The Italian stock market opened up but then slipped sharply.

Since many of Europe’s banks hold the bonds of countries like Italy and Spain, concern is turning to the health of the banking system as these bonds drop in value. With warning signs flashing that some European banks are struggling to fund themselves in increasingly expensive credit markets, the E.C.B. also moved to help weaker banks by expanding its lending to institutions in the euro area at the benchmark interest rate. Bank stocks nevertheless fell sharply in Europe.

Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the E.C.B., said the bank had acted in response to “renewed tensions in some financial markets in the euro area.”

He said that uncertainty created by the debate in the United States to raise the debt ceiling had unnerved European markets as United States investors had become increasingly reluctant to lend to European banks. “It’s clear the entire world is intertwined,” he said. “What happens in the U.S. influences the rest of the world.”

But the E.C.B.’s steps were not enough to help Europe’s bond markets.

Laurent Bilke, an analyst at Nomura in London, said the E.C.B. had been buying government debt of Portugal and Ireland in order to calm these markets. But it had not been buying Italian and Spanish government debt, and that had unnerved investors.

He said the E.C.B. council had also not been united in its decision to take extraordinary measures to intervene in the markets, and that fact had spooked markets.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/05/business/markets.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

U.S. Stocks Manage to Eke Out a Gain

The market traded mostly down through the day as gloomy prospects for the United States economy continued to weigh on equities.

But at the close, the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index rose 6.29 points, or 0.50 percent, to 1,260.34. The Dow Jones industrial average was up 29.82 points, or 0.25 percent, to 11,896.44, and the Nasdaq rose 23.83 points, or 0.89 percent, to 2,693.07.

Over the last seven days, the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index had shed more than 6 percent in its longest string of declines since October 2008 — eight days — reacting to government data on the economy and perceptions that the debt ceiling agreement hammered out in Washington this week would do little if anything to help.

Markets also fell in Asia and Europe, where officials tried to address growing investor concerns about the sovereign debt crisis.

The markets have been beset by bad data in recent days even as investors were riding the turbulence set off by the drawn-out negotiations over the debt ceiling. Recent reports on the nation’s gross domestic product and consumer spending have done little to ease the outlook ahead of Friday’s report on unemployment.

On Wednesday, another indicator showed expansion in the services sector was slowing down. The Institute for Supply Management index for the non-manufacturing sector of the United States economy declined to 52.7 in July, the lowest level since February 2010. While the report noted that business activity had picked up, there was lower consumer and business demand.

Adrian Cronje, the chief investment officer of Balentine, said that as concerns persisted about the euro zone and the United States economy, investors were starting to turn their focus to whether the debt ceiling deal’s cuts could create further headwinds for growth and whether earnings, one of the few bright spots, could be sustained.

“People are really taking a step back and saying, ‘How long can this period of record corporate profits continue?’ ” he asked. “There is very little room now to stimulate the economy if it continues to underperform expectations.”

In addition, the debt ceiling deal has not completely removed doubts about the impact on the credit rating. “Bonds are see-sawing on whether there still could be a potential downgrade,” he said.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was about even with Tuesday at 2.61 percent.

In Europe, euro zone countries were grappling with the effects of the sovereign debt troubles.

Yields on the bonds of the most indebted countries have eased a bit. But analysts have cited unresolved issues in the rescue package announced last month for Greece, which was meant to bolster the other weak euro zone economies as well, as a main contributor to the renewed pressure in European bond markets.

The president of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, announced Wednesday that he had written to national leaders urging them to “send an unambiguous signal of the euro area’s resolve” by speeding up enactment of the commitments they made last month.

That meeting announced a plan to include private bondholders in the rescue of indebted nations as well as extending the power of a European bailout fund, known as the E.F.S.F.

“The necessary technical work to implement the measures agreed on 21 July is already under way and will be completed as a matter of urgency,” he said. However, he noted that “implementation of some of these measures will also require actions by national parliaments,” which he said should be made “without delay.”

Many European parliaments, however, are already preparing for their monthlong summer break. In Rome, for example, the summer break starts Thursday and the body will reconvene Sept. 12.

Italy has been at the center of the latest storm, with its bond yields pushing higher amid investor fears that its weak growth and high debt levels may bring a full-blown fiscal crisis.

Bettina Wassener contributed reporting.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/04/business/global/daily-stock-market-activity.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

A Nosedive Eases a Bit in Volatile U.S. Trading

European debt troubles and signs of a sluggish economy in the United States have unsettled investors for months, and Thursday was no different. Stocks fell sharply early, pushing the Dow Jones industrial average down nearly 2 percent before it rallied on new hopes for a Greek austerity plan.

The seesaw session and small drop in stocks at the close pointed to generally gloomy investors hopping from headline to headline as they sought clarity. The volatility also signals further fluctuations in sentiment, with stocks headed for an unclear direction on Friday. After posting losses for six of the last seven weeks, the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index was showing a weekly gain of nearly 1 percent at Thursday’s close. It has fallen just nearly 6 percent since the end of April.

“The Greece situation has been a threatening dark cloud hanging over the markets,” said Lawrence R. Creatura, portfolio manager at Federated Investors.

“We are in uncertain times, everybody knows it and that creates volatility, but also opportunity.”

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 59.67 points, or 0.49 percent, to 12,050 on Thursday. The S. P. 500 declined 3.64 points, or 0.28 percent, to 1,283.50, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 17.56 points, or 0.66 percent, to 2,686.75.

Greek debt problems have battered markets for weeks with concerns about contagion to other countries in the euro zone and its effect on banks.

At the same time, the latest economic data has served as reminders of the challenges to the United States economy, including a slowdown in hiring in May and a housing sector that is still trying to recover.

The seesaw in stocks started shortly after the open, when the Dow, less than two hours into trading, fell 234.73 points, or 1.9 percent, to its intraday low of 11,874.94.

Analysts offered a range of reasons for the slump, starting with the Federal Reserve saying on Wednesday that the economy was not expanding as quickly as predicted and that it would complete the purchase of $600 billion in Treasury securities next week, then pause.

Late Wednesday, Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, said that the link between the Greek debt problem and banks was “the most serious threat” to financial stability in the European Union, according to Bloomberg News.

On Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for unemployment were up 9,000, to 429,000 last week, according to seasonally adjusted figures. The four-week moving average was unchanged at 426,000.

Stanley A. Nabi, the chief strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management Group, said the debt troubles in Europe were only one of the factors affecting the market on Thursday. “I think the decline is substantially connected to the Fed having lowered economic expectations for the next several quarters,” he said. “And then the employment data that came out this morning was not particularly robust.”

Adding to the uncertainty, some analysts said, was the International Energy Agency announcement that the United States would provide half of the 60 million barrels of petroleum reserves being released to world markets, with other nations releasing the rest. The action is meant to replace some of the oil production lost because of the conflict in Libya.

“It shocked the market,” said Doug Cote, the chief market strategist for ING Investment Management. “This looks like thinly veiled stimulus,” he said. “The big question weighing on the market is why now?”

But other analysts said the oil announcement suggested consumers could get relief at the gas pump, and that mostly sovereign debt and economic issues, including the faltering United States federal budget talks, were to blame for pushing stocks lower.

News at the end of the day that Greece had reached some approval for austerity measures helped the indexes recover.

“It was kind of a rocky ride over the last hour,” said Stephen J. Carl, head equity trader at the Williams Capital Group.

“It was almost an 11th-hour save,” said Mr. Creatura.

European markets were down. The FTSE 100 in London fell 1.71 percent on Thursday, while the CAC 40 in Paris declined 2.16 percent and the DAX index in Germany dropped 1.77 percent.

“Investors are worried about the same things that have been worrying them for some months,” said Adrian Darley, head of European equities at Ignis Asset Management in London. “It’s the weak U.S. data, a consensus of overheating in China and concerns about Europe. The Greek situation is still unsolved and markets are going to remain very nervous.”

The Treasury’s 10-year note rose 18/32, to 101 26/32. The yield fell to 2.91 percent, from 2.98 percent late Wednesday.

Energy and bank stocks in the were down nearly 2 percent. Airline stocks, sensitive to oil prices, rose. Exxon Mobil was down 1.73 percent, to $78.44. Chevron fell 1.69 percent, to $99.36. Marathon Oil declined 2.22 percent, to $51.62.

Julia Werdigier contributed reporting from London.

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DealBook: Wall Street Frets Over New Rules

Barry Zubrow of JPMorgan Chase.Brendan Smialowski/Bloomberg NewsBarry Zubrow of JPMorgan Chase.

Wall Street is stepping up its attacks on new financial regulation, warning Congress on Thursday that a wave of restrictions threatens to weaken big banks and the broader United States economy.

“The regulatory pendulum clearly has now begun to swing to a point that risks hobbling our financial system and our economic growth,” Barry Zubrow, JPMorgan Chase’s chief risk officer, said in prepared testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.

The concerns center on the Dodd-Frank Act, the financial regulatory overhaul that has emerged as the scorn of Wall Street. Enacted in the wake of the financial crisis, the law reforms some of the industry’s biggest profit centers, including derivatives trading and debit card fees.

JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and other financial titans are positioning themselves as victims of the law, amid rising fears that it will enable big European banks to poach their business. Foreign regulators, the banks complain, have a lighter touch than Washington policymakers.

“U.S. regulations that are being implemented on a unilateral basis are threatening the competitiveness of the U.S. markets,” Timothy Ryan, president and chief executive of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, told the committee.

The banks in particular loathe the thought of tougher capital requirements. Under Dodd-Frank, a council of regulators must designate the financial firms — including mutual funds, private equity shops and hedge funds — that pose a systemic risk to the financial system. These firms, and banks like JPMorgan that have more than $50 billion in assets, will face higher capital requirements.

JPMorgan and its fellow Wall Street firms object to the additional layer of capital, calling it a “surcharge.” The banks note that the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision already is enforcing its own international capital requirements. The so-called Basel III rules require JPMorgan to hold 45 percent more capital than it had stored away during the crisis, according to Mr. Zubrow.

“Considering a capital surcharge above Basel III levels that does not adequately account for the changes that have been made,” he said.

Banks also predict a grim future for their derivatives business, an industry at the center of the financial crisis.

Dodd-Frank requires many derivatives contracts to be traded on regulated exchanges and run through clearinghouses, which act as a backstop in case one party defaults. Dodd-Frank, banks say, could push derivatives business and profits overseas as the rules do not match up with foreign regulations.

“It could put U.S. markets at a serious competitive disadvantage,” Stephen O’Connor, a top Morgan Stanley derivatives official and chairman of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, said in prepared testimony on behalf of the association.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities Exchange Commission, charged with writing the new rules, recently delayed their implementation plan. But they still plan to finalize the regulations later this year, while international regulators plan to wait until the end of 2012.

The European Commission, the European Union’s executive body, has discussed similar rules, but the regulators may take until 2012 or later to complete the overhaul.

Gary Gensler, chairman of the trading commission, said his agency was “actively coordinating with international regulators to promote robust and consistent standards.”

Until the European rules are completed, banks in the United States say they will have to collect margin from pension funds and other investors looking to enter a derivatives deal. But a European bank booking a deal out of, say, London or Frankfurt would not have to collect any upfront collateral payments, giving them a competitive edge.

The “draconian” margin requirements could “effectively end” Wall Street’s overseas derivatives business,” Mr. Zubrow said.

Mr. Gensler noted, however, that new regulations were needed to rein in the derivatives markets.

“Though two years have passed, we cannot forget that the 2008 financial crisis was very real,” he told the committee.

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Economix: Podcast: Jobs, Economics and a Retail Makeover

After the economic slowdown that showed up in the data for first-quarter G.D.P., Friday’s Labor Department report on jobs and unemployment was nervously awaited.

It wasn’t great news, but it was better than many economists had expected.

Motoko Rich covered the story for The Times, and she says in the Weekend Business podcast that the total number of jobs created in April — 244,000, up from 211,000 in March — suggests that the United States economy is clearly growing, even if at a modest pace. (It grew at only a 1.8 percent in the first quarter, according to the G.D.P. report.)

In April, the unemployment rate moved back up to 9 percent — a painfully high level — from 8.8 percent, and a much faster pace of hiring will be needed to bring the rate down significantly.

It’s quite possible that the American economy’s growth was impeded by what Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, has called “transitory” factors, like the supply-chain problems caused by the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in Japan. In that case, Ms. Rich says, there may be faster growth in the United States later in the year.

Still, the economy has a long way to go before it is fully healed from the wounds inflicted in the financial crisis. How long will it take? In a separate conversation, Gregory S. Mankiw, the Harvard economist, confesses that he doesn’t know. In fact, he says, after many years of study, there is much he doesn’t understand about the economy — and that much in his field remains murky. In the Economic View column in Sunday Business, he elaborates on some of the current economic questions for which he sees no clear answers.

In another podcast discussion, David Gillen and Stephanie Clifford chat about the efforts of Richard A. Baker to refurbish Lord Taylor and the Hudson’s Bay Company, two of North America’s grandest retail operations. That is also the subject of a Sunday Business article by Ms. Clifford and Peter Lattman.

Also on the podcast, Gretchen Morgenson talks about Wal-Mart’s executive pay — the focus of her Sunday Business column. The company’s same-store sales have been lagging — and it has removed same-store sales as a criterion for compensation.

You can find specific segments of the podcast at these junctures: the employment picture (30:24); news headlines (23:42); changes at Lord Taylor (20:15); Wal-Mart executive pay (14:11); Gregory Mankiw (8:35); the week ahead (2:21).

As articles discussed in the podcast are published during the weekend, links will be added to this posting.

You can download the program by subscribing from The New York Times’s podcast page or directly from iTunes.

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You’re the Boss: This Week in Small Business

Dashboard

What’s affecting me, my clients and other small-business owners this week.

TALKING IT OUT A Democrat and a Republican have their most intelligent discussion ever and a budget deal gets closer. The G.O.P. issues a report that urges the government to be more like Canada (PDF) in order to improve the economy. Paul Krugman says “that’s the kind of answer that, in Econ 101, has you suggesting that the student get special tutoring.” The economist Chad Stone also disagrees, saying the report’s use of Canada’s growth in the ’90s is misleading: “What I take from this is if you start with a level of expenditures significantly higher than the United States and then reduce expenditures at a time when your major trading partner is experiencing a strong economic boom (after raising taxes), you, too, can have a boom.”

JON STEWART JUST GIVES UP Our corporate tax is now officially the highest in the world — for those who actually pay it, anyway. G.E., for example, paid no taxes last year. Hearing this, Jon Stewart officially gives up. The Daily Beast lists its 15 top corporate tax dodgers. The Tax Policy Center releases a summary of the tax proposals in President Obama’s 2012 budget. The president, according to  Donald Marron, “is proposing to cut taxes by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, raise them by $700 billion, or raise them by $2.0 trillion. It all depends on your benchmark.”

THE DATA’S STILL, WELL, O.K. Personal income and consumption (PDF) increased in February. Energy prices are taking a toll on consumers. Slate’s Annie Lowrey explains why there are more corporate profits but fewer jobs: “Productivity increased 3.9 percent in 2010 while labor costs fell. To simplify: businesses paid fewer workers to do more. In addition, big corporations found customers overseas.” The United States economy outpaces its rivals. Britain starts up its own start-up initiative. A Chinese economist complains about the dollar’s dominance. The president reschedules his Libya speech to accommodate “Dancing With the Stars.”

MORE JOBS? Governors of the 10 worst states for business try to create jobs. State revenues are up again. Unemployment falls to a two-year low. ADP says the private sector added more than 200,000 jobs. But fewer business owners plan to create jobs going forward.

DOES IT COME WITH A POOL? As home prices keep falling, a study finds that nearly 20 percent of homes in Florida are vacant. Dr. Housing Bubble reports that California home prices are 50 percent off  their March 2007 peak. A Russian billionaire reportedly pays $100 million for a Silicon Valley house. Phoenix leads the misery index.

SOMEONE’S AN OPTIMIST Charles Plosser, chief executive of the Philadelphia Fed, is optimistic in a recent speech: “Consumer spending continues to expand at a reasonably robust pace, and business investment continues to support overall growth. Labor market conditions are improving. Firms are adding to their payrolls. I do not believe that weakness (in the real estate sector) will prevent a broader economic recovery.”

MY CELLPHONE’S TOO SEXY The Atlantic’s Daniel Indiviglio is not sure if American Express’s new e-wallet product will succeed, saying, “it won’t be a cinch to break into a market that has been around for a while.” The Small Business Administration reports that small-business loans are losing market share (PDF).  John Taylor explains why he supports gradually raising interest rates to reduce the Fed’s enormous reserve balances. Time’s Steven Gandel reports that the number of problem banks nears 1,000. The Network for Teaching Entrepreneurship in Philadelphia gets a $10,000 grant. Bankers are finding that the best way to find small-business customers is through their mobile devices. Why is that? A recent survey by RingCentral indicates that most people consider their cellphone “sexier” than their spouse.

OLE! Hispanicize 2011 is this week. The online Social Media Success Summit is coming in May.

A COBRA TWEETS THE TRUTH World markets continue to soar. But a hedge fund gives three reasons why the stock market is in a state of denial, for example: “The so-called strengthening recovery is highly fragile and subject to reversal.” Paul Vigna says the stock market increase is due to the G7 putting a lid on the yen. A deadly Egyptian Cobra went missing from the Bronx Zoo, and tweets the truth about Wall Street.

WHAT LEVEL OF ANGRY BIRDS IS HE ON? President Obama has an iPad. Amazon joins the cloud. A company figures out a way for us to do all of our typing with one hand. I beg Microsoft to save me from my BlackBerry, and I think it may be listening. Malcolm Gladwell says social media aren’t such a big deal. Intuit and Salesforce.com join forces. Google copies Facebook’s “like” feature, selects Kansas City for its ultra-high-speed-Internet project, makes Gmail look like the Wii, and makes plans to rule our e-commerce payment world.

BALONEY RULESSwipe fees” and other items could delay a bill to fund the Small Business Administration. The House begins digging into a patent-reform bill. The Senate considers blocking blocking Environmental Protection Agency regulation. The Wall Street Journal supports the move. A green industry lawyer says it’s baloney. The Department of Energy is making it easier and cheaper for small businesses to license its technology.

DISCOVER GIVES UP TOO An Accountemps survey finds that office managers send sick people home. A Brother International survey finds that small-business owners are more stressed than ever. A MetLife survey finds that more than a third of employees hope to change jobs in the next 12 months. A Microsoft survey finds that 39 percent of small and mid-size businesses expect to pay for one or more cloud services within three years. A survey by Elance, an outsourcer, finds that online hiring ranks as the most essential cloud-based service for start-ups. Discover decides not to do any more surveys.

DYING INDUSTRIES Eric Kuhn explains how he turned his company around when the dot-com bubble burst. The Wall Street Journal publishes a list of the top 10 dying industries (one of which is, uh, well, oh, never mind).

E-MAILS OR DIRECT MESSAGES? Zenhabits’ Leo Babauta says our e-mails are too long: “I’m not a diva, but I also have things to do and can’t get to every long e-mail. And there are many of them, not just yours.” Facebook quietly starts testing its own version of intent-based advertising, delivering real-time ads based on user wall posts and status updates. A public relations guy hates automatic direct messages on Twitter. Somehow, Nike makes even cricket look cool.

SELL LESS, CHARGE MORE M.I.T.’s Jim Schuchart offers four missing steps for pricing, for example: “Quantify your superiority. There is always more than one way to quantify … value, so consider how your customer will think about it, what data you have, and what data you can easily get.” Better yet, just do what the big guys do and sell less product for the same price. Anthony Iannarino says that selling on price is “chasing the bottom” because “at some point, you have to start creating real value and start chasing the top.”

THE SKILLS TO BE A C.E.O. Fortune’s Joel Bomgar says that “more and more, companies are reconsidering the assumption that tech founders lack the skills to take a company to the next level as C.E.O.’s.” Business Insider reports that 33 percent of the C.E.O.’s of SP 500 companies majored in engineering.

THIS WEEK’S AWARDS

BEST REASON FOR C.E.O.’S TO MAJOR IN ACCOUNTING Andrew Liveris, C.E.O. of Dow Chemical, makes a $719,923 mistake on his expense reports.

BEST ADVICE FOR BEING MORE PRODUCTIVE Ali Luke tells how to have a productive month: “Consider a 30-day trial: Is there some big change you’re considering – like getting up at 6 a.m. instead of 8 a.m., or quitting alcohol, exercising daily, or becoming vegetarian? How about giving it a 30-day trial? If you decide the change doesn’t suit you, just stop after the month is over. But if you decide that it’s been worth it, then this month just might have been one of the most important in your life.”

MOST COMFORTING NEWS ABOUT OIL PRICES Donald Luskin does not think rising oil prices will hurt the overall economy: “The U.S. economy is today well-positioned to absorb an oil spike without experiencing it as an oil shock. First, we’re nowhere near peak oil consumption, which we hit in August 2005 at 21.7 million barrels per day. We’re now 9 percent below that, even though consumption has recovered substantially since its worst levels of the Great Recession in September 2008.”

THIS WEEK’S QUESTION Will rising oil prices affect your business? We reimburse our people for car expenses, so we’re affected.

4:26 p.m. | Correction An earlier version of this post identified Paul Vigna as an investor. He is a journalist at Dow Jones Newswires.

Gene Marks owns the Marks Group, a Bala Cynwyd, Pa., consulting firm that helps clients with customer relationship management. You can follow him on Twitter.

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