December 25, 2024

News Analysis: Central Bank May Be Winner in Europe’s Debt Talks

It is true the central bank lost its fight to prevent European leaders from precipitating a partial default of Greek debt. After meeting with Ms. Merkel and other leaders in Brussels on Thursday, though, Mr. Trichet appeared to have prevailed on important points. Governments agreed to reclaim the task of preventing collapse of the Greek economy and to take responsibility for fiscal performance of the euro zone, tasks that the central bank did not want.

“Have they backed down?” asked Peter Westaway, chief European economist at Nomura International, about the central bank’s position on a default. “To an extent they have.”

In turn, the central bank will be able to spend less time saving Greece and concentrate on its day job, overseeing monetary policy.

“The E.C.B. is trying to resist anything that makes it look like monetary authorities are taking on a role that governments should be taking on,” Mr. Westaway said.

Mr. Trichet won commitments from governments on another longstanding issue. Political leaders in Brussels agreed to take more concrete steps to reduce their debt and to ensure that the Greek disaster is not repeated elsewhere. Euro zone countries promised to cut their budget deficits to below 3 percent of each country’s annual output by 2013, in line with limits set by treaty, but widely violated.

The European countries also agreed to support Greek banks, a task that has been handled up to now primarily by the central bank. And the leaders will do more to help Greece fix its dysfunctional economy.

“The decision of member states and of the commission to mobilize all resources necessary in order to provide exceptional assistance to help Greece in implementing its reforms is very, very important,” Mr. Trichet said in Brussels on Thursday, according to Reuters.

A high-ranking monetary policy official, who would not be quoted by name, said, “We got what we wanted.”

Since the debt crisis began last year, there has been a strong temptation by Ms. Merkel, President Nicolas Sarkozy of France and other leaders to leave the heavy lifting to the central bank. Unlike the politicians, Mr. Trichet and his colleagues on the governing council cannot be voted out of office. The central bank also has extensive financial resources and does not need an act of Parliament to deploy them — though it took pains to avoid the appearance that it was printing money.

Even as Mr. Trichet framed his actions in terms of monetary policy, he faced increasing criticism that the central bank had compromised its sacred independence from politics. He was clearly annoyed at political leaders for their lack of decisive action. During a meeting last year, he got into a shouting match with Mr. Sarkozy, according to several people who attended.

The package announced in Brussels late Thursday would shift responsibility for a number of major tasks from the central bank to governments. For example, the European Financial Stability Fund would have the power to buy government bonds on open markets to stabilize prices, allowing the central bank to wind down its own controversial bond-buying program. The decision in May 2010 by the central bank to begin buying Greek, Portuguese and Irish bonds split the bank’s governing council and has left the bank with billions in distressed debt.

“It is no longer necessary for the E.C.B. to do this job, which is a plus for the E.C.B.,” Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank, said in Frankfurt.

European leaders will also guarantee the quality of Greek bonds even if some ratings agencies declare the country to be in partial default. Fitch Ratings said Friday that the plan to extract a contribution from bond investors would constitute a restricted default.

The guarantees by the European Union mean that the central bank can continue to accept Greek bonds as collateral for short-term loans, maintaining the flow of the bank’s funds to Greek institutions that are shut out of international money markets.

“In our view this is a very important sign of institutional respect from Europe to the E.C.B.,” analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland wrote in a note Friday.

Analysts cautioned that the rescue plan, outlined in a four-page statement by European leaders Thursday, was short on detail. It is not clear, for example, if the euro zone countries are committing enough money to support the Greek banks, Mr. Krämer of Commerzbank said.

He was also skeptical of promises by leaders to do a better job policing each other’s fiscal discipline. “I have heard this for 15 years,” Mr. Krämer said. “I don’t believe it. The E.U. is a consensus-driven club. You can’t force other countries to do this or that.”

Jens Weidmann, president of the German Bundesbank and a member of the central bank’s governing council, implicitly greeted the greater willingness by leaders to take more responsibility.

“It is decisive for monetary policy during this sovereign debt crisis that no further risk be transferred to the Eurosystem, and that the separation between monetary and financial policy not be further weakened,” Mr. Weidmann said in a statement, referring to the network of European central banks.

But, in a sign that not all members of the governing council are happy with the agreement, Mr. Weidmann criticized what he called a major step toward collective responsibility for the mistakes of individual states.

“This weakens the fundament of a monetary union built on individual fiscal responsibility,” Mr. Weidmann said in a statement. “In the future it will be even more difficult to maintain incentives for solid financial policy.”

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=32c09d007d33421c108f4985bcd2eedf

Sarkozy Supports Italian Official to Lead Central Bank

But in the political brinksmanship that tends to decide the fate of appointments at top European institutions, Mr. Sarkozy’s unexpected announcement, at a joint news conference in Rome with Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi of Italy, may have made it harder for Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany to endorse Mr. Draghi.

While Germany’s finance ministry, led by Wolfgang Schäuble, has recently warmed to the idea that Mr. Draghi is the best-qualified person for the job, Mrs. Merkel faces a delicate task in preparing German voters for the prospect of a Italian having the responsibility for keeping European inflation under control and managing the fate of the euro.

“France will be very happy to support an Italian for the presidency of the E.C.B.” Mr. Sarkozy said. “I know Draghi well. We support him not because he is an Italian but because he is a man of quality.”

But Mr. Sarkozy’s announcement was made without consultation with Mrs. Merkel,  a German official said, requesting anonymity because the issue was so political.  

The central bank’s role in fighting inflation is a major preoccupation for Germany and Mrs. Merkel retains an effective veto over the appointment, which is scheduled to be decided at a European summit in June.

Mrs. Merkel had been hoping that an inflation-fighting German, or a banker from a North European country, would take the helm from Mr. Trichet, who is retiring in October. But her main candidate, Axel A. Weber, the former president of the German central bank, took himself out of the running earlier this year.  Mr. Weber resigned from the Bundesbank in February.

The exit of Mr. Weber pushed Mr. Draghi’s candidacy to the forefront, despite widespread perceptions, particularly in Germany, that people from Mediterranean countries are not as prudent and responsible with money as those from northern nations.

In the corridors of finance, Mr. Draghi is widely respected as an experienced economic policy maker with sterling credentials and a knack for navigating turbulent political waters.

But Mr. Sarkozy’s move, by appearing to pre-empt Mrs. Merkel, could seriously complicate the process of selecting the next central bank president.

Mr. Sarkozy’s remarks were all the more surprising because both leaders have sought to forge a closer relationship to keep the euro from unraveling amid an unprecedented debt crisis. They have also worked to overcome differences in their approach to the central bank, which Germany wants to keep free from politics, while France, according to German officials, is more interested in influencing it.

Mr. Draghi already has a reputation as a consensus builder — an important skill when running a central bank. Mr. Weber of Germany dropped out of the running in part because he was out of step with other members of the central bank’s policy-making committee.

Serious and direct, Mr. Draghi is also acutely sensitive to Germany’s preoccupation with fighting the specter of inflation, and has spent the last few months underscoring his inflation-fighting credentials.

In a rare interview in February, he emphasized that the bank’s most important task was to ward off any threat of inflation at an early stage.

Monetary policy should “first and foremost be geared toward price stability,” he said during the interview. The central bank recently raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point, a move Mr. Draghi supported. Analysts expect the bank to lift rates perhaps twice more this year.

That policy has come under fire from some experts who warn that higher rates will choke off a faltering recovery in countries like Portugal, Greece and Ireland, where home mortgage default rates are expected to rise in the wake of the central bank’s decision.

But Mr. Draghi’s firm position on inflation has helped endear him to Mr. Schäuble, who sees Mr. Draghi as someone who can guide a strict fiscal and monetary policy while keeping meddling politicians at bay, according to a German finance official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak on the record.

Choosing a central banker from a southern European country would also send a good signal to its troubled neighbors, Mr. Schäuble believes, according to the official. It would show that the politics and economics of the 17-member euro zone is not driven by northern countries alone.

If he gets the job, Mr. Draghi will have to navigate the tricky financial and political imperatives of bailouts for the most stricken European countries, and weigh how much support the bank can and will continue to give to troubled banks in countries like Ireland and Spain.

Mr. Draghi seems to have managed to overcome reservations about his role at Goldman Sachs from 2002 to 2005. The investment bank was the lead manager for a 2001 derivatives transaction that allowed Greece to dress up its books in a way that brought it into the euro club, but Mr. Draghi has made clear that he was not directly involved.

On another monetary policy issue, Mr. Draghi has discreetly voiced concern about the central bank’s continuing intervention in markets for European government bonds. He emphasized that intervention was justified only to make sure that the central bank maintained its influence over interest rates, and not as a form of economic stimulus or stealth financing for overindebted governments.

Mr. Draghi is also the chairman of an influential panel rewriting the rules for global banks. Despite pressure, he appears willing to take on American and European bankers who would prefer to see him ease up on requirements for too-big-to-fail banks to hold extra capital in reserve.

Judy Dempsey reported from Berlin and Liz Alderman from Paris.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/27/business/global/27draghi.html?partner=rss&emc=rss