November 14, 2024

Japan Initiates Bold Bid to End Years of Tumbling Prices

The nation’s central bank announced on Thursday that it would double the amount of money in circulation and try to produce annual inflation of about 2 percent. “This is monetary easing in an entirely new dimension,” Mr. Kuroda said after the bank’s decision.

The central bank said it had inflated the economy by aggressively buying longer-term bonds and doubling its government bond holdings in two years. The bank said it would aim to create a robust 2 percent inflation rate “at the earliest possible time.”

This major shift in Japan’s monetary policy is a stark contrast to years of what many economists said was a halfhearted battle to end deflation. Deflation is a damaging fall in prices, profits and wages, and it weighs on economic growth.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who took office in late December, has made beating deflation a central point of his economic policy. He wrestled with the bank’s former leaders over creating the 2 percent inflation goal. Mr. Abe’s pressure was so relentless that the bank’s previous governor, the moderate Masaaki Shirakawa, resigned weeks before the end of his term. That departure led to the appointment of Mr. Kuroda, who shares Mr. Abe’s economic philosophy.

Mr. Kuroda emphasized the break with history, repeatedly pointing to a graph showing the planned jump in the country’s money supply as he answered reporters’ questions on the bank’s new policies.

“Incremental steps of the kind we’ve seen so far weren’t going to get us out of deflation,” Mr. Kuroda said. “I’m certain we have now adapted all policies we can think of to meet the 2 percent price target,” he said.

And if prices do not rise as expected, he said he “would not hesitate” to step up the bank’s easing program. Mr. Kuroda faulted his predecessors for fearing the possibility of igniting runaway inflation and for being too ready to pull back at the first sign of higher inflation.

Japanese stocks have soared in recent months on anticipation of a reversal in monetary policy under Mr. Abe. It was fanned by recent assurances from Mr. Kuroda that he would do “whatever it takes” to defeat deflation.

But in recent days, the stock market had retreated as investors wondered whether Mr. Kuroda would make good on his promises.

Shortly after the bank’s announcement, the benchmark Nikkei 225 index jumped from negative territory to end the day 2.2 percent higher. The yen weakened to 96.13 yen per dollar in Tokyo from about 93 yen before the announcement.

“Kuroda did it,” Masaaki Kanno, economist at JPMorgan Securities Japan, said in a note to clients. “This is a historical change in the B.O.J.’s policy.”

Some economists were cautious, though. The central bank’s giant purchases of government debt could eventually be seen by investors as enabling runaway public spending, quashing confidence that Japan would ever pare its already sky-high public debt. They also said it could also drive up long-term interest rates.

If Japan recklessly pursued aggressive monetary and fiscal policies, “the long-term interest rate could rise and fiscal collapse would ensue,” said Ryutaro Kono, an economist at BNP Paribas.

Others argue that rising prices, once stoked, can be hard to control, a fear related to memories of Japan’s bubble economy of the 1980s and the subsequent painful collapse.

Some experts also question whether monetary policy alone can end deflation in Japan. The country has other deflationary pressures like an aging and shrinking population and cumbersome regulations that make the economy inefficient. They say that lending has not increased at a high enough rate despite the easy money already available because businesses and consumers see little potential for growth.

Mr. Kuroda said that such risks or doubts should not hold the bank back from fighting deflation.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/05/business/global/japan-initiates-a-bold-bid-to-end-years-of-falling-prices.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Haruhiko Kuroda Nominated to Lead Japan’s Central Bank

TOKYO (AP) — The Japanese government on Thursday nominated Haruhiko Kuroda, the president of the Asian Development Bank, to head Japan’s central bank, counting on his support for more aggressive monetary policy to help the world’s third-biggest economy escape recession and deflation.

The current Bank of Japan governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, will step down on March 19, three weeks before his term was due to end. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe favored Mr. Kuroda for the post; a vote by Parliament on the choice is due next month.

The nomination of Mr. Kuroda, 68, was widely expected. The Oxford-educated former vice minister of finance has criticized central bank policies in the past and backs Abe’s strategy for reviving Japan’s economy by fighting deflation through monetary easing and hefty government spending.

Also as expected, the government proposed that Kikuo Iwata, a professor at Gakushuin University in Tokyo, and Hiroshi Nakaso, an executive director at the Bank of Japan, to become the bank’s top two deputy governors.

Mr. Kuroda is viewed as part of the global “currency mafia” in Japan. During his years as Japan’s top financial diplomat, he often decried the Japanese yen’s rise against the dollar, saying it did not reflect the fundamentals of the economy.

Despite frequent central bank interventions in the currency markets, the yen continued its long-term ascent thanks to its status as a safe haven and low interest rates that encouraged an international “carry trade” of borrowing yen and investing the money in the bonds of countries with higher interest rates.

Mr. Abe’s support for a weaker yen, to help support Japanese export manufacturers, has lifted share prices and spurred a decline in the value of the Japanese currency, which has weakened by about 20 percent against the dollar since last fall.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/28/business/global/haruhiko-kuroda-nominated-to-lead-japans-central-bank.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Japanese Central Bank Defends Yen Policies

TOKYO — The recent monetary push by Japan does not amount to currency manipulation and is a legitimate and much-needed bid to lift its economy out of deflation, the country’s central banker said Thursday after new figures showed an unexpected economic contraction in the fourth quarter.

“Monetary policy seeks only to stabilize the economy,” Masaaki Shirakawa, the Bank of Japan governor, told reporters in Tokyo after the central bank decided to stand pat on policy moves for now, maintaining its benchmark rate target at a range of zero to 0.1 percent and holding off on expansion of an asset-buying program. “It does not seek to influence currencies.”

Earlier Thursday, gross domestic product numbers from the government showed the Japanese economy remained fragile, shrinking at an annualized rate of 0.4 percent in the October to December quarter, the third consecutive quarter of contraction.

Still, economists expect a Japanese economic recovery to gain steam later this year, as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan pursues fresh fiscal stimulus programs while keeping up pressure on the central bank to stick to near-zero interest rates and continue to flood the economy with money.

Markets have jumped since Mr. Abe began pushing his agenda in mid-November as part of a successful campaign that put his Liberal Democratic Party back in power for the first time since 2009. During the past three months, the Nikkei 225-share index has risen 30 percent, while the yen has weakened by 15 percent against the dollar.

Last month, the government and central bank promised to work together on monetary policies until Japan achieved 2 percent inflation, a lofty goal for Japan, which has been mired for more than a decade in deflation, a damaging decline in prices.

Mr. Shirakawa is due to end his five-year term next month, and Mr. Abe has signaled that he will appoint a successor who will be more aggressive in fighting deflation.

But increasing the Japanese monetary supply to end deflation would also cause the yen to weaken, which Japanese policy makers have openly welcomed as a boon to the country’s exporters. That has led to grumbling from officials in the European Union and elsewhere that Japan was manipulating its currency to give its exports an unfair edge.

On Tuesday, the Group of 7 advanced economies, which includes Japan, pledged to let markets determine the value of their currencies — a statement that brought relief in Japan because it was not singled out for criticism but that also signaled that the prospect of competitive currency devaluations would be up for debate at the meeting this week in Moscow of finance officials from the Group of 20 leading economies.

Finance Minister Taro Aso of Japan vowed to defend Japan against those claims at the Group of 20, saying Thursday on his Web site that “the world had been awed” by Japan’s recent economic policy moves, which were “the subject of global attention.”

“Other countries want to know how we have done this. It is absolutely not a result of us intervening in foreign exchange markets,” Mr. Aso said.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/15/business/global/japanese-central-bank-defends-yen-policies.html?partner=rss&emc=rss