November 22, 2024

China Isn’t Manipulating Currency, U.S. Says

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Obama administration on Tuesday declined to label China a currency manipulator after seeing recent increases in the value of the renminbi compared with the dollar.

The decision angered some manufacturing groups, which have accused China of artificially holding down the value of its currency, the renminbi, to gain trade advantages. A cheaper renminbi makes Chinese goods less expensive when they are shipped to the United States. It also makes American goods more expensive in China. Both could increase America’s trade deficit with China, which is on pace to reach a record high this year.

The Treasury Department said the renminbi had appreciated 12 percent against the dollar in the last 18 months, after adjusting for inflation. In addition, the department said in a semiannual report that China promised at two high-level meetings last month to make the renminbi’s exchange rate more flexible.

Still, the Chinese currency is “substantially undervalued” and its appreciation “is insufficient and more progress is needed,” the report noted. The Treasury Department will “press for policy changes that yield greater exchange rate flexibility” and “level the playing field.”

The currency report evaluates exchange rate policies of all major American trading partners. It was scheduled to be released on Oct. 15, but the administration delayed its release until after last month’s meetings.

Mitt Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and a leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, has criticized the administration for refusing to cite China for manipulating its currency. Mr. Romney said in October that, if elected, he would take that step on his first day in office. That could lead to trade sanctions against China.

Scott N. Paul, executive director of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, also questioned the decision. “I’m disappointed that President Obama has now formally refused six times to cite China for its currency manipulation, a practice which has contributed to the loss of hundreds of thousands of American manufacturing jobs,” Mr. Paul said.

China has recently taken action that could result in the renminbi appreciating without prodding from the United States.

China and Japan agreed this week to accept the others’ currency when trading. Currently, they each convert their currency to dollars. That has made trade between the two Asian economic giants more expensive.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/28/business/global/china-isnt-manipulating-currency-us-says.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Economix Blog: How Rick Perry’s Tax Plan Would Affect You

Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, who is seeking the Republican presidential nomination, today released some details on his flat tax proposal. The plan would give Americans the option of determining their taxes based on an alternate system that has one tax rate and fewer deductions.

CATHERINE RAMPELL

CATHERINE RAMPELL

Dollars to doughnuts.

We asked the Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan joint venture of the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution, to help calculate how Mr. Perry’s proposal might affect different kinds of American families. Roberton Williams, a senior fellow there, kindly crunched some numbers using what’s known about the new proposal.

The chart below shows a few different types of families — single, married with children, head of household with children, and retired — and what kind of tax liabilities they would face under current law and under Mr. Perry’s alternative system:

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For each family structure, there are examples of households of different income classes, representing roughly the 20th percentile, median percentile, 80th percentile and 99th percentile income for each type of family. The sources of income and deductible expenses that Mr. Williams used to make these calculations are also representative of families at those income levels, he said. (For example, upper-income households are more likely to receive more income from capital gains.)

The lower tax option for each type of family is highlighted in blue.

As you can see, the highest-income households (at the 99th percentile) in every structure of family analyzed always benefit from opting into the Perry plan.

The poorest households, on the other hand, do not. That’s primarily because the Perry plan, at least as currently described, does not seem to have refundable tax credits. The lowest tax liability a family can have under the family plan is $0, whereas under current law families that are poor enough can actually have a “negative” tax liability: in other words, on net poorer families receive government money instead of paying income taxes under the current system.

Middle-income and higher-income households (those at the median and 80th percentiles), sometimes benefit and sometimes don’t from the Perry plan, depending on their family structure. In these income groups, single people and heads of households with children are better off under the old system, whereas married couples with children and retired couples should opt into the new system.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=8ee7fe733a95d2866143c8ec2d8c51e0

Economix: The Legend of Margaret Thatcher

Today's Economist

Bruce Bartlett held senior policy roles in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and served on the staffs of Representatives Jack Kemp and Ron Paul.

Former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher of Britain, here in 2008, is venerated by many conservative Republicans in the United States.Former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher of Britain, here in 2008, is venerated by many conservative Republicans in the United States.

Republicans have always admired former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher of Britain. Her 1979 election excited them enormously; Republicans viewed it as proof that their views were on the upswing and greatly increased their confidence that Ronald Reagan would be elected president in 1980 as part of a worldwide conservative trend.

Mrs. Thatcher’s stature among the American right has only increased since she was ousted by her own party in 1990. This is especially true now. Benjy Sarlin of Talking Points Memo says Mrs. Thatcher “has always been a popular figure in Republican circles across the pond, but she seems to have taken on a new relevance in recent years for the party’s leading lights.”

Mr. Sarlin cites a blog post on Mitt Romney’s Web site that draws a parallel between economic conditions in Britain in the late 1970s and those in America today. He reports that Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum also invoke Thatcher’s name frequently in their quest for the Republican presidential nomination. And last month, Sarah Palin publicly requested a meeting with Thatcher that fell through because of Mrs. Thatcher’s physical condition.

While Mrs. Thatcher is a towering figure in British political history, well deserving of admiration, the conservative legend about her time in power is at odds with the facts. In this legend, she was even more aggressive than Reagan in cutting taxes and the welfare state. But that is not true.

As this table shows, taxes as a share of the gross domestic product in Britain actually increased sharply during Mrs. Thatcher’s first seven years in office before falling in the later years. Even at the end, they were significantly higher than they were when she took office. Spending also rose during her first seven years before falling in Mrs. Thatcher’s later years.

Institute for Fiscal Studies

To those familiar with Mrs. Thatcher’s tax policies, these data are not surprising. Although she cut the top personal income tax rate to 60 percent from 83 percent immediately upon taking office, the basic tax rate was only reduced to 30 percent from 33 percent. And in 1980, the 25 percent lower rate of taxation was eliminated so that 30 percent became the lowest tax rate.

More importantly, Mrs. Thatcher paid for her 1979 tax cut by nearly doubling the value-added tax to 15 percent, from 8 percent. Among those who thought Mrs. Thatcher was making a dreadful mistake was the American economist Arthur Laffer. Writing in The Wall Street Journal on Aug. 20, 1979, he excoriated her for taking with the one hand while giving with the other.

“The Thatcher budget lowers tax rates where they have little economic consequence and raises tax rates where they affect economic activity directly,” he complained.

In the 1982 forward to the British edition of his American best-seller, “Wealth and Poverty,” George Gilder was also highly critical of Mrs. Thatcher for failing to cut either taxes or spending: “The net effect of the Thatcher program has been a substantial increase in taxation on virtually all taxpayers.”

Although Mrs. Thatcher privatized many British industries and businesses that had been nationalized after World War II and sold off much of Britain’s public housing, in which the bulk of the working class lived, she did little to reduce the size of the nation’s welfare state.

In particular, Mrs. Thatcher, like all the members of her party, strongly supported the National Health Service, which provides national health insurance for every Briton.

A review of long-term spending trends in Britain by the Institute for Fiscal Studies shows that Mrs. Thatcher basically flattened a trajectory that had been rising since the war. That took a lot of political effort even though her party controlled Parliament and the prime minister of Britain has far fewer constitutional constraints than an American president. But at the end of the Thatcher era, the welfare state was still intact.

As Martin Wolf, a columnist for The Financial Times, told me, “Like all great politicians, Thatcher was a pragmatist, not an ideologue, who picked her fights carefully. She recognized that any head-on attack on the welfare state would have destroyed the party’s electability.”

Mr. Wolf said Mrs. Thatcher was far more concerned about fiscal stability and deficit reduction than lower taxes, and the idea that a debt default “would have been sensible would, to her, have been insane.”

Mrs. Thatcher, like Reagan, moved her country in a conservative direction. But Mrs. Thatcher’s fiscal accomplishments were much more modest than many of today’s Republicans think.

The lesson they should learn from her is that it is very hard to shrink the size of government even when a strong leader has complete control of the legislature, that it takes many years of arduous work to do so and that at the end of the day it won’t shrink very much.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=b83f58f36d9952196e9a51b162abe40a