November 22, 2024

Labor Data Fuels Market Rally

Shares on Wall Street traded higher on Friday, with the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index on track for a sixth-straight day of gains after a much-stronger-than-expected payrolls report.

In midday trading, the S.P. 500 rose 0.3 percent, while the Dow climbed 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq composite index added 0.2 percent.

Data showed hiring increased in February, with payrolls jumping by 236,000, easily beating expectations for a gain of 160,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 7.7 percent, the lowest since December 2008.

“Great report — there just isn’t anything that I can pull out negative at all about this report,” said Darrell Cronk, regional chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Private Bank in New York. “It is taking a little bit of this argument off the table that the Fed is doing all the heavy lifting in the economy. There is a trend building in the economic data that, while not off-the-charts-great, is definitely moving in the right direction.”

The data helped add to earlier gains triggered by data from China. Exports in the world’s second-biggest economy soared 21.8 percent in February from a year ago, exceeding expectations and suggesting that global demand may also be on the mend. Imports fell 15.2 percent to 13-month lows.

The benchmark S.P. 500 has advanced 1.7 percent this week, its biggest weekly gain so far this year. The Dow Jones industrial average ended Thursday at a record high for a third-consecutive session.

But investors were mindful of the possibility of a pullback, as the last correction for the S.P. 500 was nearly a year ago — a 9.9 percent slide between April and the start of June.

McDonald’s gained 1.8 percent after the fast-food hamburger chain said that February sales at established restaurants fell just 1.5 percent, a little better than expected.

Pandora Media shares jumped 25.3 percent on stronger-than-expected quarterly results. The company also said in a surprise announcement that its chief executive, Joseph Kennedy, was stepping down.

SkullCandy shares tumbled 18.9 percent after the headphone maker reported higher-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue but said it expected to post a loss in the current quarter.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/09/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Talk of a Retailer Merger Cheers Markets

Stocks rose on Tuesday, lifted by recent mergers and talk that more are imminent.

Reports that the retailers Office Depot and OfficeMax are discussing a merger came after big corporate deals for Heinz and Dell were announced in recent weeks. Some investors are betting that more deals could be on the way as buyers pay premium prices for publicly traded companies.

The Dow rose 53.91 points to close at 14,035.67, approaching a nominal record of 14,164 reached in October 2007.

“It seems that investors are more comfortable with taking risk right now,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank in Chicago. That’s despite the $1.2 trillion in automatic federal spending cuts that are scheduled to start March 1 unless Congress and the White House find a way to avoid them. Congress returns from vacation next week.

Previous budget battles in Washington have rattled financial markets. But this time, many investors seem unfazed by the prospect that Congress won’t stop the “sequester” from kicking in. One reason is that the cuts are spread across the board for a decade, instead of all at once.

“I think investors are actually comforted by it,” Ablin said. “It’s not ideal. But if Congress can’t do it when left to their own devices, this is the next best thing.”

In other trading Tuesday, the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index rose 11.15 points to 1,530.94. The Nasdaq composite index gained 21.56 points to 3,213.59. Google crossed $800 for the first time.

The gains were widely shared, if slight. Nine of the 10 industry groups tracked by the S. P. 500 inched higher, led by energy companies. More than two stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.

Markets were also higher in Europe after news that the German economy was picking up steam. Indexes rose more than 1 percent in Germany and France.

Stocks of office supplies stores rose after the possible merger reports about OfficeMax and Office Depot.

OfficeMax rose $2.25 to $13, a gain of 21 percent, and Office Depot was up 43 cents to $5.02, a gain of 9 percent. Staples also rose as investors anticipated more mergers ahead.

Analysts cautioned that antitrust regulators could block mergers in the office supply business. Staples, for instance, tried to buy Office Depot in 1997, but was stopped by the Federal Trade Commission.

Health insurers fell after the release of preliminary government data that suggested rate cuts to Medicare Advantage plans for next year would be greater than anticipated.

The two largest Medicare Advantage providers, Humana and UnitedHealth, sank. Humana had the biggest loss in the S. P. 500, dropping 6 percent, or $4.98, to $73.01. UnitedHealth fell 66 cents to $56.66.

The government says it expects costs per person for Medicare Advantage plans to fall more than 2 percent in 2014. The government uses this figure as a benchmark to determine payments for these privately run versions of the government’s health care program for the disabled and those 65 and older.

Interest rates were higher. The Treasury’s benchmark 10-year note fell 7/32 to 99 24/32 and the yield rose to 2.03 percent from 2.01 percent late Friday.

The markets were closed on Monday in observance of Washington’s Birthday.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/20/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

DealBook: Julius Baer to Buy Stake in Italian Money Manager

The headquarters of Julius Baer in Zurich.Michael Buholzer/ReutersThe headquarters of Julius Baer in Zurich.

LONDON – The Swiss bank Julius Baer agreed on Monday to buy about 20 percent of the Italian money manager Kairos Investment Management for an undisclosed amount.

The deal comes a month after Julius Baer announced about 1,000 job cuts after its deal with Bank of America Merrill Lynch to buy that bank’s private banking operations outside the United States and Japan for around $880 million.

Under the terms of the deal with Kairos, Julius Baer will acquire a 19.9 percent stake in the firm, which has about 4.5 billion euros ($5.7 billion) of assets under management. Julius Baer currently manages assets worth 184 billion Swiss francs ($194 billion).

Julius Baer said its private client business in Italy would be combined with Kairos’s existing business, adding that the two firms would set up a new private bank in Italy after receiving regulatory approval for the deal.

The combined wealth management division in Italy will be operated under the name Kairos Julius Baer, according to a company statement.

“Thanks to our strategic participation, we will increase our presence in the domestic Italian wealth management market,” Julius Baer’s chief executive, Boris F.J. Collardi, said in a statement. “This move underlines our commitment to further grow and develop our business in Italy.”

The two firms said they would decide after a few years whether Julius Baer would increase its stake in Kairos, according to a statement from Julius Baer.

Shares in Julius Baer rose less than 1 percent in morning trading in Zurich on Monday.

The deal is expected to close during the first half of 2013.

Article source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/11/12/julius-baer-to-buy-stake-in-italian-money-manager/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Swiss Central Bank Chief Faces Accusations of Improper Currency Trades

FRANKFURT — Philipp M. Hildebrand, chairman of Switzerland’s central bank and a key architect of tougher global banking regulations, came under intense pressure Wednesday after a Swiss publication reported that he profited from currency trades made before and after he oversaw steps to prevent the Swiss franc from becoming too strong.

The report by Weltwoche, a weekly magazine seen as having ties to the rightist Swiss People’s Party, reported that in October Mr. Hildebrand made 75,000 francs, or $79,600, from the dollar trades. He had acquired dollars before the Swiss National Bank, the central bank, announced measures in September to check the rise of the franc and protect Swiss exporters, the magazine reported. It cited copies of statements provided by an employee of a private bank where Mr. Hildebrand had an account.

Mr. Hildebrand did not immediately respond in detail to the report, but planned to make a statement Thursday. Late last month the council that oversees the central bank said it had examined “rumors” about transactions made by Mr. Hildebrand or members of his family and found no wrongdoing. A report prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers, released by the S.N.B. Wednesday, said the transactions — amounting to more than $2 million — were made in connection with such family financial transactions as the purchase of real estate. The firm found no violations of central bank rules.

The accusations came as a shock in Switzerland and in central banking circles worldwide. Mr. Hildebrand is a familiar and respected figure in his home country, though some of his policy moves have drawn intense criticism.

Internationally, Mr. Hildebrand, who spent part of his career at a New York hedge fund, is known for his work drafting regulations, known as Basel III, that would oblige banks worldwide to limit their use of leverage to strengthen risk management.

The disclosure of the transactions immediately took on political overtones because of the involvement of the Swiss People’s Party in bringing the matter to light. In the past the party, which campaigns on a platform of limiting immigration and keeping Switzerland out of the European Union, has been among Mr. Hildebrand’s most vocal critics.

“There have been disputes about monetary policy, but so far no one has questioned his integrity,” said Daniel Kübler, a professor of political science at the University of Zurich.

Noting that Mr. Hildebrand had pushed for more financial disclosure by top officials of the central bank, Mr. Kübler said he found it difficult to believe that the accusations were true. But he added, “If it is confirmed then he must resign.”

Accountants from PricewaterhouseCoopers who examined records of the transactions said that some were profitable for Mr. Hildebrand but others lost money. The report did not calculate the total profit or loss, but its findings raise the question of why Mr. Hildebrand, who is wealthy, would risk his reputation for relatively little return.

Mr. Hildebrand has made enemies at home and abroad by pushing to impose rules on the country’s two biggest banks, UBS and Credit Suisse, that were tougher than those in other countries. He has also annoyed his former banker colleagues with his criticism of banker compensation and his advocacy of regulations designed to limit bank risk and prevent future financial crises. The rules have been endorsed by leaders of the Group of 20 largest economies.

In Switzerland, one of Mr. Hildebrand’s most vocal antagonists has been Christoph Blocher, a businessman who is the best-known figure in the Swiss People’s Party. In the past Mr. Blocher has accused the Swiss National Bank of squandering the country’s wealth with costly currency interventions and demanded that Mr. Hildebrand resign.

The criticism has been muted since the S.N.B. announced in September that it would set a limit on the currency of 1.20 francs to the euro. The policy has been successful in keeping the franc, favored by investors as a haven from global financial turmoil, from rising to levels that would be ruinous for Swiss export companies.

Bank Sarasin, an institution in Basel, Switzerland, where Mr. Hildebrand had an account, said Tuesday that one of its employees leaked information about the currency transactions to a lawyer close to the People’s Party. The employee, who was not identified, later met with Mr. Blocher, the bank said. The employee has been fired and has turned himself in to the police for violating bank secrecy laws, Bank Sarasin said.

The report by PricewaterhouseCoopers found that one transaction was made without Mr. Hildebrand’s knowledge by his wife, Kashya, the owner of an art gallery in Zurich.

Article source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/05/business/global/05iht-snb05.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Stocks Hold On to Day’s Modest Gains to End a Wild Week

There was little sign of the volatility seen in the previous four days, and stocks wavered within a relatively tight range. But the indexes failed to fully recover from the week’s wild swings.

“We didn’t fall off a cliff,” said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist of Key Private Bank. “We are in a market that is trying to bottom, after a gut-wrenching slide, and going into a weekend where people can take a look at it.”

The Standard Poor’s 500-stock index was up 6.17 points, or 0.53 percent, at 1,178.81. It was 1.7 percent lower for the week. The Dow Jones industrial average was up 125.71 points, or 1.13 percent at 11,269.02 and the Nasdaq rose 0.61 percent to 2.507.98.

American stock markets were wildly volatile in the previous four trading sessions, with alternating days of collapsing and then sharply rising prices. There was a 4.4 percent decline on Wednesday and a 4.6 percent climb on Thursday. The mood has swung between speculation about worries over the economy and a renewed financial crisis, and confidence that banks are healthy and corporate profits strong.

“It seems like we have a continuing trend of lighter volume, with successively lower volume in the rise and the fall, which is typical of the market bottoming out,” said Mr. McCain.

Analysts and traders said the turmoil was driven by intensifying worries over European sovereign debt; the Congressional impasse over the debt ceiling; and revisions to economic data, particularly with respect to gross domestic product, that raised concerns over another recession.

The Standard Poor’s downgrade of the nation’s credit rating last week also weighed on the markets. But many said the selling was driven by emotion, and that the S.P. move had been discounted or paled in comparison to other factors, especially the economy and developments in Europe.

Traders suggested a modest drop in claims for unemployment insurance in the United States and reassurances from French officials that their country’s banks were safe may have helped stocks on Thursday. And on Friday, when trading volume was 4.8 billion shares, investors sifted through new data on the economy, including insights into consumer behavior, a crucial element in trying to gauge the pace of the recovery.

The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.5 percent in July. Without the volatile automobile and gas components, sales increased 0.3 percent. The figures included several revisions, but they suggested there was some spending momentum in the second quarter and the beginning of the current quarter, at least.

But another piece of data that is indicative of where the market could swing was a survey by the University of Michigan that showed consumer sentiment dipped in August, registering 54.9 points on its index, which was lower than during the crisis of November 2008.

“Clearly, recent financial market turmoil has weighed heavily on sentiment, which was already under pressure from a dysfunctional political arena and the longer-term issue of an ailing labor market,” said Joshua Shapiro, the chief United States economist for MFR, in a research note.

At times, the VIX or “fear index,” a measure of volatility in the market, declined to its lowest point this week. The VIX was 36.87.

United States benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were lower, to 2.24 percent from 2.34 percent on Thursday.

“Going forward, the recent news in the stock market is not a good thing for consumer confidence and spending,” said Chris G. Christopher Jr., the senior principal economist for IHS Global Insight. “The swings in the equity markets are making consumers very nervous.”

But Mr. Christopher and other economists have noted that the recent declines in oil prices will offer some relief to Americans.

Industrial stocks led the way on the S. P. 500, up almost 2 percent, with General Electric up more than 1 percent. Financial stocks pulled back by late afternoon, showing slight losses, but Bank of America was about 1 percent higher.

Bettina Wassener and Julia Werdigier contributed reporting.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=255ff83f894224f39833007260cc48bd

Fundamentally: This Time, Corporate Profits May Not Save the Day

But after the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted nearly 700 points last week — pushing stocks down 11 percent from their late April peak — Wall Street investors are finally waking up to what Main Street households have known all along: The already bad economy is getting worse. And the laundry list of problems that could tip the economy into another severe downturn, if not a recession, is growing only longer.

First, there’s the debt-ceiling debate in Washington, which isn’t over yet as a special Congressional panel will try to find $1.5 trillion in additional savings by November. On top of that, there are the still-growing debt problems in Europe.

“There’s a growing sense the Continent is in denial and investors will continue to stress those markets until something gives,” said Jack A. Ablin, executive vice president and chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. “Bailouts don’t appear to be cutting it.”

And, on another front, it remains to be seen whether the Federal Reserve will step up again to try to stimulate the economy, as it did last November when it started to buy Treasury securities in hopes of keeping interest rates low. 

Just about the only bright note has been corporate earnings. Profit among companies in the Standard Poor’s 500-stock index are thought to have grown 18 percent, on average, in the second quarter versus the year-ago period, according to figures tracked by Capital IQ. That’s an increase from July expectations for profit growth of around 12 percent. The new figure stands in stark contrast to government reports showing that economic growth slowed drastically in the first half of the year.

 “But earnings and earnings revisions are a lagging indicator,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at S. P. Equity Research. Historically, he noted, corporate profits don’t reach a trough until around nine months after a bear market ends. And they typically don’t peak until after a bull market runs its course.

Does that mean that this bull run, which began in March 2009, may be over?

It’s hard to say. To enter another bear market, the Dow would have to tumble a further 1,200 points or so. Then again, after days like last Thursday, when the Dow fell by more than 512 points, that might not be so far off.

ALL that is certain is that Wall Street’s take on profits seems to have done a 180-degree turn. Where once investors were looking at earnings as a way to gauge the health of the underlying economy, they’re now using the bad economic news to gauge when profits will drop, said Ben Inker, head of asset allocation at GMO, the asset management firm.

It seems as if “the weight of ugly economic data is causing people to worry about the sustainability of the growth we’ve had so far,” Mr. Inker said.

So far, there have been only slight revisions to third-quarter profit growth, said John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet.

As of Friday, the consensus forecast was that the S. P. 500’s earnings would grow 15.8 percent in the third quarter. That’s off slightly from predictions of 16.7 percent third-quarter growth at the end of June, Mr. Butters said.

Jeffrey N. Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, says he thinks that “the estimates are still too high.” While profits might still grow by double digits, he said, they won’t be the 16 or 17 percent gains built into many analysts’ estimates.

In the best-case situation, he said, one reason for slowing profit growth will be that margins may decline as some companies ramp up hiring.

The worst-case event, of course, is that the economy will worsen significantly, cutting into both sales and profits.

Michael Thompson, managing director for S. P. Valuation and Risk Strategies, which oversees Capital IQ, says there is no evidence yet that this worst-case scenario is working its way into the estimates.

But market strategists say it may take some time for bad domestic economic news to work its way into profit figures, simply because of the nature of the S. P. 500. For one thing, the index tracks large, globally oriented companies that generate nearly half of their sales and profits abroad.

And Mr. Thompson added that historically, “analysts have never been good at identifying the inflection points in the economy”— for instance, when recessions turn into expansions and vice versa.

So if the economy is indeed headed south, all bets are off when it comes to profits.

Paul J. Lim is a senior editor at Money magazine. E-mail: fund@nytimes.com.

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=17d676d84320783a76da93358acc5449

Bucks: A Camp Option, but Is It Useful?

Wealthy families have long realized that their children need to learn about money, Paul Sullivan writes in his Wealth Matters column this week. They will often send their children to retreats like the one run by Citi Private Bank, which focuses on investing, running businesses and giving money to charity.

Now there’s an option for the less-than-wealthy who want to teach their children money skills: summer camps. The question is whether these camps teach useful skills in a way that will be meaningful to the children.

What do you think about these camps? Have you ever sent your child to one? Or do you think your child would prefer the usual camps that offer programs on cheerleading skills or art and music?

Article source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=1a1efa07bc926e4ba09f901f11def87f